Week 2 MVP Chase Chase Update and the FBS Playoff Chase

 

Photo credit: Torsten Bolten

In this issue:

• Week 2 NFL MVP Chase Update

• FBS Playoff Chase

Week 2 NFL MVP Chase Update

I describe the philosophy of the MVP Chase here. Some players you might expect, such as Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Derek Carr, did not remain among the leaders after Week 2 because, oddly, they didn't throw enough passes. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one gets back among the leaders soon. 

Only ten of 29 MVP performers from Week 1 also put up MVP numbers in Week 2. That does, however, create a nice round leaderboard.

1. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers: MVP Chase total points: 2.90

2. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints: 2.78

3. Nico Collins, WR, Texans 2.62

4. James Cook, RB, Bills 2.382

5. Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings 2.223

6. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers 2.20

7. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans 2.106

8. Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks 2.003

9. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers 1.925

10. Justin Fields, QB, Steelers 1.892

FBS Playoff Chase

The College Football Playoff will have twelve teams beginning this season. The teams that will qualify will be the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams. The four highest-ranked among these teams will receive first-round byes, with the next four hosting the first-round games. The remaining games will be played in bowls, so winners of the second round of the playoffs will play in multiple bowls.

The teams will be ranked and selected by a committee, as they had in the ten previous seasons with a four-team playoff.

The FBS (highest) division of NCAA conferences now has four "power" or "super" conferences and five others. The power (P4) conferences are the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC. Two major programs, Washington State and Oregon State, are in limbo, and Notre Dame, an independent not aligned to a conference is also considered a power team. The remainder of the FBS contains the "Group of Five" or G5 conferences: AAC, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt, and two independents: UMass and UConn.

The playoff format guarantees that a Group of Five champion will participate in the playoffs. This was the right decision because it likely allows a dominant team to play for the championship even if they couldn't play as many good teams as major conference contenders often do.

With that in mind, my FBS Playoff Chase aims to remove subjectivity in ranking and selecting the teams for the playoffs. It's the system I'll use when I become a member of the Selection Committee. By removing subjectivity, I mean that the measure of a team won't become a debate of relative talent and "who would beat who." A team won't be disqualified from the FBS Chase just because its best player got injured - something the Committee did to Florida State in 2023.

The FBS Playoff Chase quantifies the following criteria:

The more victories, the better.

• The more victories against good teams, the better.

• If a team's schedule doesn't have many good teams, more decisive victories (i.e., not determined by one play or an errant official's call) and blowout victories, the better (although there is no incentive to "roll up the score").

• Losses should be few, close, and against good teams.

A team's FBS Chase points are the total number of wins by teams it's beaten minus the total number of losses by teams it has lost to. Also, points are added for decisive and blowout wins and subtracted for decisive and blowout losses.

I will wait two more weekends before publishing FBS Chase Standings, which resembles a "ranking" like the AP and Coaches Polls. For now, I can say that Alabama is in the lead. That's because the Tide has three blowout wins against FBS competition and the teams it beat are all otherwise undefeated.

Texas is second. Then there's a crowd for third place. Alphabetically, they are:

Indiana 

Miami FL 

Missouri 

Nebraska 

Ole Miss 

Tennessee 

UCF 

Utah 

Washington St

"Where's Georgia? Where's Ohio State?"

Remember that the FBS Chase is about what a team has accomplished so far, instead of what it is anticipated to do as the traditional rankings mostly reflect. Most teams have done very little so far. That's why I'm delaying my first ranking.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.