Safely predicting the NFL MVP

 

On the morning of August 19, 2024, the national ESPN radio shows had fill-in hosts. I did not catch all their names and don't know to whom I should credit this thought, but someone said a quarterback on a top-2 seed will be the NFL MVP.

What he said made sense, but I was curious to see how accurate he was. 

I went back 30 seasons. There were 32 MVPs in that time because in two seasons there were ties. In this listing, "NFC-1" means the team earned the #1 seed in the NFC; in parentheses is the team's won-loss record that year.

Here are the MVPs:

1994: Steve Young, QB, 49ers; NFC-1 (13-3)

1995: Brett Favre, QB, Packers; NFC-3 (11-5)

1996: Brett Favre, QB, Packers; NFC-1 (13-3)

1997 (tie): Brett Favre, QB, Packers; NFC-2 (13-3)

1997 (tie): Barry Sanders, RB, Lions; NFC-5 (9-7)

1998:Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos; AFC-1 (14-2)

1999: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams; NFC-1 (13-3)

2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams; NFC-6 (10-6)

2001: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams; NFC-1 (14-2)

2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Raiders; AFC-1 (11-5)

2003 (tie): Peyton Manning, QB, Colts; AFC-3 (12-4)

2003 (tie): Steve McNair, QB, Titans; AFC-5 (12-4)

2004: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts; AFC-3 (12-4)

2005: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks; NFC-1 (13-3)

2006: LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers; AFC-1 (14-2)

2007: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots; AFC-1 (17-0)

2008: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts; AFC-5 (12-4)

2009: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts; AFC-1 (14-2)

2010: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots; AFC-1 (14-2)

2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers; NFC-1 (15-1)

2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings; NFC-6 (10-6)

2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos; AFC-1 (13-3)

2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers; NFC- 2 (12-4)

2015: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers; NFC-1 (15-1)

2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons; NFC- 2 (11-5)

2017: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots; AFC- 1(13-3)

2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs; AFC-1 (12-4)

2019: Lamar Jackson, QB, Colts; AFC-1 (14-2)

2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers; NFC-1 (13-3)

2021: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers; NFC- 1 (13-4)

2022: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs; AFC- 1 (14-3)

2023: Lamar Jackson, QB, Colts; AFC- 1 (13-4)

Of 32 MVPs, 26 have been quarterbacks. The other six were running backs with historic seasons: three ran for 2,000 yards, and the others scored the 1st-, 2nd-, and 4th-most touchdowns in a season.

Of the 32 teams the MVPs represented, 24 were top-2 seeds. Three MVPs were on teams that won fewer than 11 games; they were all running backs credited for "carrying" their average teams to the playoffs. Four times, the MVP went to a qb whose teams were 12-4 but a 3-seed or lower. Brett Favre won the MVP on an 11-5, 3-seed team.

26 times, the MVP was on a team that was 12-4 or better, that is, .750 (75%) or better. Since the inception of a 17-game schedule, all MVPs were on a 13-4 or better team. 

I found all of this interesting, but most importantly, a quarterback on a top-2 seed has won the MVP for eleven consecutive years. 

Our radio host is right.

If you were in the business of predicting the 2024 NFL MVP, your best bet is to start with the teams you think will win the most games and then decide which of their quarterbacks will likely have the best season.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.