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Before 2007, no freshmen or sophomores had won the Heisman Trophy, and almost all played for a highly-ranked team. The winner that year, Tim Tebow, was a sophomore on a 9-3 squad. I don't recall a junior or senior who's won it since. It was good to throw tradition aside. If the outstanding player was an underclassman, so be it!
To date, no player has won three consecutive NBA MVPs. Nikola Jokic, however, may be on that course. He won in 2021 and '22 and is even better now.
Would it dishonor some all-time greats if Jokic becomes the first to win the MVP Award three times in a row? I don't think so. Kareem, Jordan, and LeBron may have deserved to win three or more consecutive MVPs at some point in their career. Denying Jokic (if he deserves it) won't correct past errors but only add another one.
But does Jokic deserve it? I don't know; the season's not over.
Before I get to this season, I'll discuss two trends I've seen in MVP results over the last 20 years.
First, John Holligern's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) rankings overlap with MVP votes. In the last ten seasons of MVP voting, only 15 players in the Top 5 were not in that season's top 5 in PER.
9 of the last 10 MVPs led the league in PER. The only exception was Steph Curry in 2015, who finished third while his Warriors had the NBA's best record.
MVP voters may be consulting the PER list. They may rely on it too much and provide errant MVP results. Or, they may reject the stat even when their votes reflect it. It's like NFL MVP voters who hate the passer rating but usually give the MVP to a quarterback at or near the top of the league in that stat.
Whether right or wrong, we can safely predict that the league's MVP will be at or near the top in PER.
Second, availability and winning matters. Six of the last ten MVPs played for the team with the best record, but it goes deeper than that. Of the ten most recent MVPs, nine played in the most victories among players who were top 5 in PER that season. The exception was in 2017, Russell Westbrook's first triple-double season.
For instance, in 2021-22, Jokic played in 74 games, including 46 of 48 Nuggets victories. Giannis's Bucks and Embiid's 76ers each won 51 games, but both played in only 45 victories.
This season Jokic is again ranked first in PER, Embiid's second, and Giannis is fourth. As of the afternoon of March 11, Basketball Reference data shows:
Jokic has played in 43 of 46 Nuggets wins.
Giannis has played in 39 of 48 Bucks wins.
Embiid has played in 35 of 44 76er wins.
(Luka Doncic, third in PER, has played in 31 of 34 Mavericks wins. Anthony Davis of the Lakers is fifth in PER, but his Lakers have won too few games for either him or LeBron to be MVP candidates.)
If the trends continue, Jokic, first in PER and first in wins among the top 5 PER leaders, will win the 2023 MVP award for the same reasons he won the last two.
Should he?
The NBA's top scorer (in total points), Jayson Tatum, does one better than Jokic, playing in 44 of 46 Celtics wins. Rebounds leader Domantas Sabonis of the Kings has played in 38 of 39 Kings wins, an even better participation rate. Julius Randle, the top player for the Knicks, has played in all 39 of their wins. He's played in as many victories as Giannis.
Should they get MVP consideration? Perhaps not. Jokic, Giannis, and Embiid are simply better.
So we can ask of the "Big Three:" how good are their teams when they play?
The Bucks with Giannis playing are 39-13: .750
The Nuggets with Jokic are 43-16: .729
The 76ers with Embiid are 35-18: .660
By that standard, Giannis has the nod over Jokic, and both Giannis and Embiid would have finished ahead of Jokic last year.
This year, I just don't see Embiid in the MVP conversation. Tatum, whose Celtics are 44-18 (.710) when he plays, may have a stronger case than Embiid, particularly if we disregard PER.
But it behooves all players to bolster their MVP candidacies by avoiding injury, spitting in the face of "load management," and playing.
It's hard to complain about losing the MVP if another player played more games and won more games.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and thanks you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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