NFL MVP Chase entering Week 14

In 2023, eight receivers were in the Top 20 in yards from scrimmage. In 2024, through thirteen weeks, only two receivers are. 

In 2023, no team ran at least 50% of the time; in 2024, five run at least 50% of the time, with the Eagles running 58% of the time.

According to The Football Database, median rushing yards has increased by five yards per game (109 to 114) while median passing yards have descrased by the same amount (225 to 220).

In any case, the MVP leaders are on teams that run the ball effectively. 

Note that in the MVP Chase, player performances in losses, no matter how impressive, do not count, only how well they've performed in victories. Here is the latest update after Week 13.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

Penultimate Playoff Chase Standings

 

Below are my rankings for the College Football playoffs. I included all teams with nine wins or more.

• WinsR is wins ranking. 

• SWR and SLR stand for Strength of Wins and Strength of Losses Rank.

• PDR ranks teams based on how many points they were from going undefeated. 

As was demonstrated last year, the Playoff Selection Committee can change its mind from week to week, so their standings released later today will have little meaning. 

I can, however, make some safe predictions:

• My final Playoff Chase rankings for next week will differ from the Selection Committee's. The winner of Lousiana-Marshall, for instance, is bound to move up just for the victory in an extra game against a winning team.

• The winner of the Moutain West championship game (Boise-State-UNLV) will receive a bid and the loser will go home. The winner of the AAC Championship will not be invited.

• It's unlikely that any Big 12 team will be invited aside from the championship game winner.

• I may have heard this on the Cover 3 Podcast: As with the AP Poll (last column above), the Selection Committee will be inclined to favor 3-loss SEC teams over 2-loss teams (and perhaps one-loss teams such as Army or Indiana) from any other conference. Therefore, Penn State and SMU must win the championship game to get an invitation, despite their better records than Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.

• Teams that are safe to get in barring a championship game blowout loss: Oregon, and Texas. Notre Dame is also a lock, and I think Tennessee, Ohio State, and Indiana will get in as well.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

The 2024 Baseball Awards

 

Photo credit: Tage Olsin

If you're reading this on the publishing date or shortly after, Happy Thanksgiving! Otherwise, have a happy day anyway!

This came a few weeks later than I had planned, but I hope you will find this enlightening.

IN THIS ISSUE

• World Series MVP

• NL and AL MVPs

• CY Young Winners

WORLD SERIES MVP

The MVP Chase would have voted for Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers as the World Series MVP, using the same criteria I used for the regular-season MVPs below. Freeman, of course, did win.

NL AND AL MVPS

As selected by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BWAA), Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge were unanimous choices for NL and AL MVP, respectively. While the buzz was about their home runs and (in Ohtani's case) stolen bases, the reason they would have earned their first-place votes from me was because of Bases Gained, a concept I introduced last month:

Bases Gained is Total Bases plus Bases on Balls (walks) plus Stolen Bases. It measures a player's productivity on offense independent of the batting production of teammates; it's what he does by himself with his bat and his feet.

In 2024, Ohani had 411 Total Bases, 81 Bases on Balls (walks), and 59 steals. That sums up to 551 Bases Gained, 124 more than NL second-place finisher Elly De La Cruz. In the AL, Judge had 535 Bases Gained, 71 more than second-place finisher (and teammate) Juan Soto. (Data compiled from Stathead.)

Although I'm the only one using it, Bases Gained is the most important stat because it's about actual production. Averages, percentages, and comparisons to hypothetical replacement players are useful in determining the "best" player, but production is what wins games.

Production and winning games are the foundations of the MVP Chase philosophy across all sports: the most valuable players are the ones who made significant contributions to the most number of victories with the greatest frequency.

That's why Bases Gained, by itself, wouldn't have determined my votes (if I had the privilege of voting for the MVP) for Ohtani and Judge. It was Bases Gained in victories that mattered. After analyzing the data, I concluded that if a player had at least three bases gained, by any means (including, for example, three walks), he made a significant contribution to the win. He was probably not the only one on the team who did; there may have been two or three other guys who also had at least three Bases Gained. It's not how often you were the very best on your team in a given victory, but how often you were one of the top 2-4 guys in a victory. Three Bases Gained (BGs) is a reliable predictor of that. 

The BWAA voters submit ten names to the MVP ballot, so ten names are in my final ranking. Although both the NL and AL each have a pitcher in their top ten, in my view no pitcher pitched enough innings to qualify for the MVP in the way they might have a generation ago.

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP CHASE LEADERS

Seven of the top eleven in Bases Gained found their way onto the MVP Chase ballot, as they were in the top ten in 3+ Bases Gained in victories. Although in a different order, seven of the top top finishers in BWAA voting were also in the top ten in BG. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP CHASE LEADERS

The American League rankings are more striking. While eight of the top ten BG leaders would have been on my ballot, all nine of the top nine finished in the top ten of the BWAA vote, along with a pitcher.

I don't know the rationale for each BWAA voter; some may be caught up in the moment ("Ohtani is the first 50 HR/50 SB guy! He's my MVP!") But I do think my Bases Gained ranking and, arguably, my 3+BG Games in Wins ranking, could be valuable guideposts for voters in future seasons. Most voters are already, unconsciously, favoring BG; it should be a recognized stat.

CY YOUNG AWARD WINNERS

The Cy Young award is about the best pitcher of the year, not necessarily the "most valuable." I looked at:

• Innings Pitched (IP): regardless of number of games or starts

• Bases Allowed (BA) and Bases Allowed Per Inning (BAP) - Like Bases Gained, BA is a stat I made up and is its opposite. Unlike WHIP (Walks Plus Hits Per Inning), BAP accounts for whether those hits were singles, doubles, triples, or home runs. It also takes into account stolen bases, which pitchers are partially responsible for allowing.

• Earned Run Average (ERA)

I incorporated both BAP and ERA into my Cy Young voting because they measure slightly different but important things. Pitcher Al gives up two singles and three walks but no runs for a BA of 5; Pitcher Bob gives up nothing but one home run for a BA of 4. Assuming nine innings pitched, Al has an ERA of zero for the game, but he faced more batters and probably threw more pitches, which probably affects his efficiency in upcoming games. Bob was probably more efficient overall, but he allowed a run.

It's like evaluating a football's defense: you can't just look at yards allowed, you need to look at points allowed. Similarly, bases allowed and runs allowed both have to be taken into account.

I looked at the top two hundred pitchers in innings pitched from each league, and ranked them by IP, BAP, and ERA. By adding together their respective ranks, we got a total rank number. The player with the lowest number would have received my first-place Cy Young vote. As BWAA voters have only five names on their ballots, I'm providing the top five finishers in the last column.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG

AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG

The MVP Chase would have agreed with the top three NL vote-getters and the top two AL vote-getters. The chief difference in the AL was Emmanuel Clase finishing third in the BWAA voting. The reliever had a very low BAP and ERA, and even a top ranking in both might not indicate the dominance. 

My Cy Young system is a work in progress but I do think it quantifies the right things for the voters to consider.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

NFL MVP and College Football Playoff Chase November 26, 2024

 

IN THIS ISSUE:

• NFL MVP Chase

• College Football Playoff Chase

NFL MVP CHASE

A couple of years ago, the 49ers traded four draft picks (2nd-4th rounders in 2023, 5th in 2024) to acquire running back Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers. The 49ers were already a good team, and with McCaffrey they almost won a Super Bowl, losing to the Chiefs in overtime last season. They don't regret making the trade because  McCaffrey was a vital reason they were so close.

A great quarterback can elevate a bad team, lifting a terrible one to mediocrity, and a mediocre team to Super Bowl contention. A great running back can do no such thing, but he can make a good team great.

Four of the five running backs in the top ten of the MVP Chase are new acquisitions, joining their current teams this year. The fifth, Jahmyr Gibbs, is only in his second season but was a Pro Bowler in his rookie season for the Lions.

Four of the teams are in a better position than last year at this time. The Ravens are the exception, but Derrick Henry is compensating for their drop-off in defensive performance. A great running back throws defenses off-balance and makes quarterbacks more effective. Even if they all have good or great offensive lines, most running backs won't be as productive or explosive as the guys on this list.

Because players don't gain points in any games in which their teams lose, this is anyone's race. 

Ranking based on formulas with data collected from Stathead.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHASE

It's becoming increasingly possible for at least one three-loss team to sneak into the playoffs. Therefore, I've ranked all the teams with three losses or fewer, no matter how unlikely it seems that they'll get in.

Each team is ranked by:

• Number of wins (Wins)

• Strength of teams beaten: how many games have they won? (SW)

• Strength of teams beaten by: how many games have they lost? (SL)

• Points away from being undefeated: did you lose two games by a combined five points or 30? (PDL)

A team that ranks highly in each of these categories will be ranked high overall. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

NFL MVP Chase and College Football Playoff Chase Updates 11/19/24

IN THIS ISSUE:

• NFL Playoff Chase

• College Football Playoff Chase

NFL MVP CHASE

(Data compiled from Stathead.)

I have not checked who leads the NFL in rushing, receiving, or in any passing statistic. I also haven't looked up any player's stats in losses. The NFL MVP Chase is only about players who made major contributions to team victories, and Saquon Barkley snatched the lead in the MVP Chase with another great game for the Eagles.

For those wondering, Joe Burrow is 32nd and Patrick Mahomes is 36th. Among the rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round, Jayden Daniels is 16th (as shown above), Bo Nix is 38th, Caleb Williams is 45th, Drake Maye has yet to have a game that warrants inclusion on the list. Michael Penix has seen limited action as a backup to Kirk Cousins (10th on the list). J.J. McCarthy is out for the year due to injury.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

I have ranked all teams with eight wins or more in the following categories

• Wins

• Strength of Wins (SW):  how good, cumulatively, were the teams you beat

• Strength of Losses (SL): how good, cumulatively, were the teams you lost to

• Point differential in losses (L Pts): how many points a team is away from being undefeated

Most often, teams are tied with other teams in a particular ranking. (E.g. many teams are tied for 12th in wins because they all have eight wins.) The Total on the far right column is the sum of their rankings in the four categories, and teams are ranked in that order.

 

The point differential in losses can make a huge difference. For instance, if, this Saturday, Ohio State loses to Indiana by twelve, hardly a blowout, the Buckeyes could fall to where Alabama is in that ranking, as Alabama's two losses are by a combined 12 points. Losing by a blowout margin could prevent a team from reaching the 12-team playoff, and deservedly so. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

College Football Playoff Chase November 15, 2024

College Football Playoff Chase

I have shifted my process for the College Football Playoff Chase. I am using the same criteria, but will no longer try to crunch them into a single number. Instead, I separated the criteria into five separate rankings, four of which really matter (shown here), and one tie-breaker ranking (to be explained at the end).

The higher a team is ranked in each category, the higher their overall ranking. Entering Week 12, I assembled the 34 teams with seven or more wins and ranked them in these categories.

1. Wins: There are two 10-win teams, which lead the nation. They are both ranked "1" in the "Wins" column below. The three teams with nine wins are all tied with a "3" ranking. Twelve teams have eight wins and are tied with a "6." Seventeen teams have seven wins and are ranked "18" in wins.

2. Strength of Wins (SW below): Ranking teams by the combined number of wins of the teams it has beaten. For instance, The ten teams Oregon has beaten have combined to win 44 FBS games, leading the nation. Remarkably, Alabama (16th overall)  is second in this ranking. Despite beating just seven teams so far, those teams have combined to win 43 FBS games. (Wins against FCS teams count, but the wins by FCS teams, against FCS competition, don't count). 

3. Strength of Losses (SL below): Ranking teams by the combined losses of the teams it was beaten by. For example, The two teams Alabama has lost to have themselves combined for five losses, which is 19th-best. The ranking has seven at "1," the four undefeated teams (Oregon, Indiana, BYU, Army), who've lost to nobody, and three teams: Boise State, Ohio State, and SMU, whose only losses are to one of these undefeated teams. 

4. Points Differential in Losses (L Pts below): The more badly a team's been beaten - the more points away they are from going undefeated - the weaker the case can make that they deserve to compete with the best of the best in the playoffs.

Three of the criteria favor undefeated teams, making it virtually impossible for an undefeated team to be out of the playoff picture. And that's how it should be. Strength of Wins, however, will play a major factor in seeding; undefeated Army, for instance, stands at seventh instead of in the top four. 

This is not a ranking of the best teams. For instance, it does not mean I would bet on Army against Notre Dame. But it is a snapshot, entering Week 12, of where teams are positioned for the twelve-team playoff. By the end of November 30th, all will have played twelve games, and the conference championship games will be played the following weekend. A lot can change, but I do not see myself tinkering with these categories. I think this system will provide for the fairest playoffs. 

Regarding the unlisted fifth category: Where teams would be tied in their cumulative rankings (#14-15, #24-25), I consider how often a team has won by nine or more points. That is, how many victories were non-controversial because victory and defeat were decided by more than one play or possession? No one bad call would cause someone to say that the beneficiary should have lost the game. Ole Miss had more "convincing" victories than Washington State, and Iowa State had more convincing victories than Pitt. This fifth category will only really matter when the playoff teams are selected and there is a tie between playoff teams for seeding purposes, or there is a tie between the last team and the last team left out.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.