Image: Torsten Bolten
The FBS Playoff Chase starts with one principle: at the beginning of the season, assume all 138 teams are equal. Then as the weeks go by, judge them by their win-loss record, the strength of their schedule (based on opponents' win-loss records), margins of victory (capped to account for overly lopsided scores), and margin of defeat (uncapped, because getting blown out is meaningful).
It's like a horse race but with 138 contenders. Some will get near the lead early in the season with blowout wins against easy competition, but then will others catch up as they win games against tougher teams.
After three weeks, however, we could make one assumption: SEC teams now have a leg up on non-conference rivals in earning a playoff spot, as their overall strength of schedule will almost certainly be superior.
My reasoning?
A college football team from one of the FBS "Power Four" conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC) usually begins its season playing three non-conference games. In some order:
A Power Four opponent from another conference
Another FBS team from a "Group of Six" (G-6) non-power conference (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Sun Belt)
A team from the FCS (the next-lower NCAA division)
A major exception is the SEC. Several play a conference game early in the season and their third non-conference game, usually against a G-6 or FCS team, late in the season. These are meant to be, and almost always are, easy victories for them. The vast majority of teams in other conferences, however, have completed their non-conference schedule through Week 3.
G-6 schools usually play eight conference games (the nine-member Pac-12 plays seven), so most of them have at least one non-conference game to play.
As of games played through September 19, 2026, here are the cumulative non-conference records of teams by conference, in order of highest winning percentage:
SEC: 34-2
Big 12: 34-8
Big Ten: 40-10
ACC: 24-9
American: 20-18
Sun Belt: 22-20
Mt West: 12-15
C-USA: 13-18
Pac-12: 10-14
MAC: 16-24
Why is this important?
It helps to project the strength of schedule. When an SEC team plays another SEC team, it is likely to face a team with a 3-0 non-conference record and, on average, a .500 winning percentage in the 9-game SEC schedule, or 4.5 wins. That is to say, an SEC team's SEC opponents are likely to average 7-8 wins for the season.
An ACC team, in contrast, is more likely to be 2-1 in non-conference than 3-0, meaning an average of 6-7 wins. G-6 teams are likely to be 2-2 or worse in non-conference, and would average out to 4-4 in conference, meaning 5-6 wins.
Therefore, we can surmise that among teams with identical records at the end of the year, the SEC team will have had the tougher schedule and will be ranked higher. That means they are already in a better position today. Of course, this won't apply in all cases; since the Power Four conferences are large and teams don't play every other conference team, some schedules will be easier than others. That will all play out in the FBS points system.
The following are the Top 30 in the FBS Chase so far. When there is a tie in my FBS points system, I'm moving teams from the stronger conference ahead because they likely (though not definitely) have a strength-of-schedule advantage going forward. If there are ties for teams in the same conference, they are listed alphabetically.
All teams are 3-0 except where noted. AP ranking included for reference. Beyond the Top 25, I've included teams based on the "others receiving votes" list, which brings the number to 42.
17 USC - Big Ten (4-0) AP: 12
16 Notre Dame - Independent AP: 3
16 North Dakota St - Mt West (4-0) AP: 40
15 Penn St - Big Ten AP: 13
14 Alabama - SEC AP: 8
14 Texas - SEC AP: 1
13 Florida - SEC AP: 21
13 Georgia - SEC AP: 2
13 Mississippi St - SEC AP: 24
13 Tennessee - SEC AP: 14
13 BYU 0 Big 12 AP: 9
13 Utah - Big 12 AP: 15
13 Indiana - Big Ten AP: 5
13 Nebraska - Big Ten AP: 42
13 Miami FL - ACC AP: 6
13 Virginia Tech - ACC AP: 32
12 Missouri - SEC AP: 19
12 Kansas St - Big 12 AP: 41
11 Ole Miss - SEC AP: 4
11 Cincinnati - Big 12 AP: unranked
11 Iowa - Big Ten AP: 17
11 Michigan - Big Ten AP: 18
11 UCLA - Big Ten AP: 38
11 Duke - ACC AP: 34
11 Pitt - ACC AP: 37
11 UMass - MAC - unranked
10 Texas Tech - Big 12 AP: 11
10 West Virginia - Big 12 AP: 28
10 Tulsa - American AP: 35
10 James Madison - Sun Belt AP: 39
Nebraska dispensed with the normal process this year and chose to skip playing a Power Four team, settling for two MAC teams and an FBS team. This may haunt them down the road in the FBS Chase, and has already hurt them in the AP rankings, receiving just two Top 25 votes. They are tied for seventh on this list, however, because they did defeat each of their opponents by at least 27 points. If you're not playing a great schedule, at least dominate the schedule you have.
Indiana's non-conference schedule, like Nebraska's, also had no Power Four opponent. However, the AP has them ranked fifth, largely because they won the national championship this year. I, however, have them in the same spot as Nebraska.
That's the difference between the FBS Chase and the AP rankings. They rank teams based on reputation and potential; I rank them based on results.
FBS newcomer and G-6 member North Dakota State, which had long dominated the FCS, isn't playing any Power Four team. While looking great at the new level, its schedule is already catching up to them. Despite going 4-0 with just one close call, 3-0 Notre Dame has already caught up to them because of its stronger schedule; Notre Dame's opponents have won more games than North Dakota State's opponents have.
For reference, here are teams that are not yet in the Top 30 of the MVP Chase but are ranked by the AP. We'll see how many move up as the season progresses and as the undefeated teams above start losing:
9 Ohio State (2-1) AP: 7
9 LSU (2-1) AP: 10
8 Texas A&M (2-1) AP: 23
7 Louisville (2-1) AP: 16
6 Houston (2-1) AP: 25
4 Oregon (2-1) AP: 20
4 SMU (2-1): AP: 21
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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.
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