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Following up on the last newsletter about my Quarterback Efficiency Rating (QER), I looked at statistics from 2024 using Pro Football Reference and Stathead.
I took the top 20 in Passer Rating (PR), not having time to go through the top 32. I wanted to see how they compared to the QER. The results seem to match what the public was already sensing with their eyeballs: despite some nice statistics, players that the public has doubts about, like Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr, moved down. Josh Allen, who was only eighth in Passer Rating (low for an MVP), moved to second in QER. Patrick Mahomes, 16th in Passer Rating, moved to eighth in QER.
Top 16 (i.e., top half of the NFL) in Quarterback Efficiency Rating (QER)
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Josh Allen, Bills
Jared Goff, Lions
Brock Purdy, 49ers
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Joe Burrow, Bengals
Jordan Love, Packers
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Sam Darnold, Vikings
Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Bo Nix, Broncos
Jayden Daniels, Commanders,
Matthew Stafford, Lions
Disclaimer: I did not look at players who were below 20th in Passer Rating. There's a slim chance that someone ranked lower than 20th in PR might crack the Top 16 in PR, but would be near the bottom.
Of the Passer Rating top ten, six had won playoff games prior to 2024. In contrast, the top nine in QER had won at least one playoff game in previous seasons. Perhaps QER is more indicative of "winning traits" such as consistency and/or play-making than PR.
Players among the top 16 in Passer Rating who are not on this list include Russell Wilson and Derek Carr, nudged out by Kyler Murray and Bo Nix.
The biggest surprise is how low Jayden Daniels ranks, considering all the buzz he received for a sensational rookie year. His sack rate was quite high, while fellow rookie Bo Nix, who otherwise had less spectacular numbers, had a very low sack rate.
Only Purdy and Murray had losing records on this list. Purdy's team was 29th in points allowed, and his touchdown percentage was below average; a few extra 4 points (instead of field goals) here and there make a huge difference. Tagovailoa had a winning record for the 11 games he started, but his Dolphins went 8-9. Three winning teams, the Steelers, Texans, and Seahawks, were not represented. Each of them went 10-7, and two of them have moved on from their quarterbacks.
Hopefully, I'll be able to test whether QER makes sense when applied to other recent years.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! Contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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