My NBA MVP Ballots for this decade

 

Photo: Public Domain

NOTE: A ranking of the NCAA Men's Tournament Teams will be coming soon!

Two weeks ago, I unveiled a new method of determining the NBA MVP:

Number of games played in which his team won and the player had a combined Game Score and plus/minus of 30 or more.

(A score of 30 or more indicates that the player individually had a great performance in the victory, the team played extraordinarily well while he was on the court, or both.)

Here are the leaders of games played through March 14. The top five finishers at the end of the season would fill out my hypothetical NBA MVP ballot in the same order.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, 42

2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 34

3. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks, 27

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks, 26

5. Jayson Tatum, Celtics, 26

6. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, 25

7. Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers, 23

8. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers, 23

9. Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies, 22

10. LeBron James, Lakers, 22

This is how my MVP ballots would have looked over the previous five seasons under this formula. In parentheses is how they finished in the official NBA MVP vote totals. (I won't repeat the full names and teams if they're previously mentioned). Tied players are in italics, and I haven't determined how to break ties yet. The official NBA MVP that year is in bold.

2023-24

1. (1) Jokic 46

2. (2) Shai 42

3. (5) Jalen Brunson, Knicks 35

4. (6) Tatum 35

5. (3) Luka Doncic, Maevericks, 34 OR (4) Giannis, 34

2022-23

1. (2) Jokic 41

2. (4) Tatum 39

3. (3) Giannis 35

4. (1) Joel Embiid, 76ers, 30

5. (8) Luka 26

2021-22

1. (3) Giannis 38

2. (1) Jokic 37

3. (4) Devin Booker, Suns, 33

4. (2) Embiid, 32

5. (5) Tatum, 32

2020-21 (72-game season)

1. (1) Jokic 35

2. (2) Embiid 29

3. (3) Stephen Curry, Warriors 28

4. (13) Kawhi Leonard, Clippers 28

5. (10) Rudy Gobert, Jazz, 27 or  (7) Damian Lillard, Trailblazers, 27

2019-20 (Covid season)

1. (1) Giannis 36

2. (2) LeBron 32

3. (5) Kawhi 30

4. (3) James Harden, Rockets, 29

5. (12) Tatum, 27

My results are generally in line with conventional NBA wisdom; except that I've taken subjective judgments out of my decisions. My biggest departure is in 2023, when Embiid won the MVP but I had him a distant fourth.

The voters seemed to let personal feelings get in the way that year; they didn't want to hand a third MVP to a player, Jokic, who hadn't yet won a championship, nor did they want a player like Jokic to win three MVPs in a row if not even Michael Jordan did that.

So, they gave the award to the "bridesmaid-never-a-bride" Embiid, who indeed did play dominant basketball that year. However, he missed almost a fifth of the season, and the team won at the same clip without him as with him.

This year's race should be in doubt regarding who should finish first and second, but the rest of the ballot is up in the air.

I'll see if I can apply my formula to controversial MVP debates of the past, although I'm not certain how far back the "Game Score" stat is kept. I'll report back on that before the regular season is over.

Thanks for reading!

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! James is available for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.