Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
I constructed a college football computer ranking for the 2023 season. I had no preseason rankings, as there was no data to input. And after a handful of games in Week 0 and then a full slate in Week 1, there was very little data to go on. The winning teams had a weak schedule (they beat winless teams) and the losing teams had a strong schedule (they lost to undefeated teams).
After Week 2, however, there is some more information. We see which teams had the best start. It doesn't necessarily mean the most talented teams are in the Top 25 yet. Georgia isn't ranked because they throttled an FCS school and winless Ball State; other teams had a more impressive resume. For instance, Duke dominated two teams, Clemson and Louisiana (aka Lafayette) who themselves dominated their other opponent.
There are no projections. For example, Texas beat Alabama last week. Assuming Alabama eventually wins 9-11 games, that will help Texas in future rankings. As for now, however, Alabama has won just one game.
For that reason, I have Colorado out of the top 25 (just barely, at 26). It's not because I have subjective doubts about the Buffs; we really don't know how good any team is yet. We'll see what the data says in the coming weeks.
After each game, I assign team dominance points:
5 for a dominant win (17+ point margin)
4 for a competitive but convincing win (9-17 points)
3 for a narrow win (1-8)
2 for a narrow loss (1-8)
1 for a competitive but convincing loss (9-17)
0 for getting dominated in a loss (17+)
After each week, I sum up the ranking points a team has so far in the season. Then I add the cumulative dominance points of the FBS opponents they played, divided by the number of games played. I call these schedule points. Add dominance points and the schedule points together, and we get a team's total ranking points.
Because there were a lot of FCS opponents in the early weeks, teams that played only FBS teams ended up higher in the rankings. Teams that are tied in rating points are ranked based on having higher dominance points. Otherwise, ties are in bold and listed alphabetically. I also note which teams have played 3 games so far instead of 2.
As more games are played, there will be a more diverse range of points and fewer ties.
Notre Dame 18 (3 games)
USC 18 (3 games)
Vanderbilt 17 (3 games)
(T4)Duke 16
(T4)Rutgers 16
(T6) Washington State 15.5
(T6)North Carolina 15.5
(T8) Florida State 15
(T8) UCLA 15
Liberty 14.5
Miami 14
Auburn 14
Washington 13.5
(T14) Texas
(T14) Wake Forest
Iowa 13.5
(T18) Kansas State 12.5
(T18) Maryland 12.5
(T18) Michigan 12.5
(T18) Ohio State 12.5
(T18) Oklahoma 12.5
(T18) Ole Miss 12.5
(T18) Oregon State 12.5
(T18) Penn State 12.5
(T18) Syracuse 12.5
Colorado 12.5
If I selected the college football playoff, this is the tool I would use.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe), and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, or any other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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