CFB Playoff Selection reaction and NFL MVP Chase Update

Image: Torsten Bolten

In this Issue:

• College Football Playoff Selection reaction

• NFL MVP Chase update

College Football Playoff Selection reaction

I was unable to produce the MVP Chase last week, and am overdue to post my thoughts about the College Football Playoff.

Eleven of the twelve teams I would have selected for the College Football Playoff were, in fact, selected. I had Notre Dame getting in, but Alabama was selected.

My process was data-driven: strength of victories, strength of losses, and margin of losses. Its purpose was to select who deserved to make the playoffs based on on-field results.

At the end of 2023, one-loss Alabama was selected over undefeated Florida State in that season's four-team playoff, allegedly because Florida State wasn't that good and wouldn't have been competitive with their starting quarterback injured. Last year, Florida State was terrible (2-10), but beat Alabama in this season's opener 31-17. The Seminoles, however, finished just 5-7. It was a terrible loss for Alabama, and had the Tide won that game but lost to a better opponent later in the season, I likely would have had the Tide in the playoffs. Or, if Florida State had been a better team that Alabama only narrowly lost to, Alabama might still have gotten in.

That this was an opening-game loss isn't an excuse. And I find it hard to imagine that a school with any other name would get away with losing by double digits to the 13th-best team in the ACC. I find it ironic that two years ago, undefeated Florida State supposedly sucked, yet this year, when Florida State really did suck, Alabama was rewarded for only losing to them by two touchdowns.  

As it is, however, the Committee could have done worse. 11 out of 12 isn't bad.

NFL MVP Chase 

Two weeks' worth of games have passed sincemy last update. Matthew Stafford, who has been in the nationwide MVP discussion for most of the year, has finally become a strong contender in the MVP Chase as well. 

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

How important is the defensive line? Plus, an MVP Chase update

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

In this issue:

• MVP Chase update after Week 13

• How important is the defensive line?

The MVP Chase rewards strong individual performances in victories. I don't care who has the most total yards, or most 100-yard games, or the most passing yards or touchdowns. Put those guys in the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams. The MVP Chase focuses on the number of strong individual performances that contributed to actual wins.

That said, I did take a look at how the Top Ten in the MVP Chase are doing in the traditional stats.

1. Cook is second in rushing and fourth in yards from scrimmage.

2. McCaffrey is first in total yards from scrimmage.

3. Prescott is first in completions and second in both yards and touchdowns, and first in QBR.

4. Taylor is first in rushing and third in yards from scrimmage.

5. Smith-Njigba is first in receiving yards and seventh in yards from scrimmage.

6. Jahmyr Gibbs is fourth in rushing and fifth in yards from scrimmage.

7. Stafford is first in touchdown passes and a close second in passer rating.

8. Daniel Jones is fifth in passing yards and is falling in the MVP Chase after leading it for much of the season.

9. Josh Allen ranks around seventh to eleventh in several categories.

10. Drake Maye has finally entered my top ten. He's first in passing yards and passer rating and fourth in QBR. As mentioned in my last update, his greater propensity to get sacked compared to other top quarterbacks has hurt his ranking; he's given up 40 sacks, while Prescott and Stafford have each given up 17.

One might say the sacks aren't all his fault (I'm not saying they are), that Maye should be higher on any MVP list, and that my MVP Chase formula doesn't work. We have five more weeks to find out.

How important is the defensive line?

I can't cite the podcast, podcast episode, or even the speaker with certainty, but I believe I heard Bill Barnwell suggest that, after the quarterback, the defensive line may be the most significant factor in winning the Super Bowl.

I decided to check that out with a brief survey. In the 55 seasons of the merged NFL, I selected 14 teams that won the Super Bowl in which the quarterback was a question mark at the time. Sometimes he was a backup pressed into service, sometimes he just hadn't consistently demonstrated elite ability (even if he proved it later in his career), and sometimes (Unitas, Peyton Manning), their bodies were broken down.  

To gauge how good these Super Bowl-winning defensive lines were, I looked at their rankings in sacks and in average yards allowed per run. (Linebackers also play a significant role in these stats, but they need the defensive line to dominate the line of scrimmage.)

The Combined Ranking (CR) mentioned below adds the two rankings; the "perfect" ranking number would be 2 (1st in sacks plus 1st against the run). 

2017 Eagles. QB Nick Foles. The defensive line ranked 15th in sacks and 6th in yards per rush. CR: 21

2015 Broncos. QB Peyton Manning. The Bronco defense ranked 1st in sacks and 1st in yards per rush. CR: 1

 

2012 Ravens. QB Joe Flacco. The Ravens were 15th in sacks and 7th in yards per rush. CR: 22

2007 Giants. QB Eli Manning. The Giants were first in sacks and fourth in yards per rush. CR: 5

2002 Buccaneers. QB Brad Johnson. The Bucs were sixth in sacks and third in yards per rush. CR: 9

2000 Ravens. QB Trent Dilfer. This legendary defense was (surprisingly) just 22nd in sacks but first against the run. CR: 23

1991 Redskins. QB Mark Rypien. The defense was fourth in sacks and 11th against the run. CR: 15

1990 Giants. QB Jeff Hostetler. The Giants were only 24th in sacks (28 teams) and seventh against the run. CR: 31

1987 Redskins. QB Doug Williams. The team was fourth in sacks and tenth against the run. CR: 14

1986 Giants. QB Phil Simms. Giants were fourth in sacks and fifth against the run. CR: 9

1985 Bears. QB Jim McMahon. The legendary '85 Bears were third in sacks and sixth against the run. CR: 9

1980 Raiders. QB Jim Plunkett. The defense was third in sacks and first against the run. CR: 4

1974 Steelers. QB Terry Bradshaw. The defense was first in sacks and second against the run. CR: 3

1970 Colts. QB Johnny Unitas. The team was fifth in sacks and tenth against the run. CR: 15

Ten teams finished in the Top 6 in sacks. All teams finished in the Top 11 against the run.

I will likely consider these stats, in addition to QB stats, when making Super Bowl predictions as the playoffs start. Even if I doubt the quarterback, I might favor a team that is strong at rushing the passer and stopping the run. 

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

Playoff Chase standings entering Championship Week

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

I haven't posted in three weeks, but I said I would have a "Top 20" entering Conference Championship weekend, after which I will make my 12-team playoff selection. The playoff features the five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven other teams, with the four highest-ranked teams receiving first-round byes.

Many, but not all, teams playing for conference championships are in my rankings. Those who aren't are not teams I would select for the playoffs in any case. They are:

• Conference USA: Kennesaw St (9-3) and Jacksonville State (8-4)

• MAC: Western Mich (8-4) vs Miami OH (7-5)

• Mountain West: Boise State (8-4) vs UNLV (10-2) 

In addition, other conference championship games will feature one team that ought not get into the playoffs even if it wins the championship game:

• ACC: Duke (7-5) should not get in even if it beats Virginia (10-2).

• Sun Belt: Troy (8-4) won't get in even if it beats James Madison (11-1).

In the AAC, Tulane (10-2) is unlikely to get in, even if it beats North Texas (11-1). However, it's possible if Virginia and James Madison both lose.

The winners of the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will get in. The losers of the Big Ten and Big 12 will likely get at-large bids unless they're blown out badly, but Alabama will need to win the SEC to earn a spot; according to my formula, it just doesn't have enough Playoff Chase points to get an at-large berth. If North Texas and James Madison win their leagues and Virginia loses, they both should get a spot over the ACC champ Duke. 

In the ranking, Playoff Chase Points reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the teams it lost to and the margin of defeat.  The "(+[number]) indicates the number of Playoff Chase points a team stands to gain if it beats that opponent in the week's championship game.

1. Ohio State (12-0) 69 vs Indiana (+12) for Big Ten title

2. Indiana (12-0) 68 vs Ohio St (+12) for Big Ten title

3. Oregon (11-1) 64 no game

4. BYU (11-1) 62 vs Texas Tech (+11) for Big 12 title

5. Oklahoma (10-2) 61 no game

6. Georgia (11-1) 59 vs Alabama (+10) for SEC title

7. North Texas (11-1) 55 vs Tulane (+10) for AAC title

8. Texas Tech (11-1) 53 vs BYU (+11) for Big 12 title

9. Texas A&M (11-1) 52 no game

10. Ole Miss (11-1) 51 no game

11. Notre Dame (10-2) 49 no game

12. James Madison (11-1)48 vs Troy (+8) for Sun Belt title

13. Alabama (10-2) 47 vs Georgia (+11) for SEC title

14. Virginia (10-2) 46 vs Duke (+7) for ACC title

15. Georgia Tech (9-3) 45 no game

16. Arizona (9-3) 44 no game

17. Miami (FL) (10-2) 43 no game

18. USC (9-3) 40 no game

19. Utah (10-2) 38 no game

20. Vanderbilt (10-2) 38 no game

21. Tulane (10-2) 37 vs North Texas (+11) for the AAC title.

  

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.