Image: Torsten Bolten
I haven't posted in three weeks, but I said I would have a "Top 20" entering Conference Championship weekend, after which I will make my 12-team playoff selection. The playoff features the five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven other teams, with the four highest-ranked teams receiving first-round byes.
Many, but not all, teams playing for conference championships are in my rankings. Those who aren't are not teams I would select for the playoffs in any case. They are:
Conference USA: Kennesaw St (9-3) and Jacksonville State (8-4)
MAC: Western Mich (8-4) vs Miami OH (7-5)
Mountain West: Boise State (8-4) vs UNLV (10-2)
In addition, other conference championship games will feature one team that ought not get into the playoffs even if it wins the championship game:
ACC: Duke (7-5) should not get in even if it beats Virginia (10-2).
Sun Belt: Troy (8-4) won't get in even if it beats James Madison (11-1).
In the AAC, Tulane (10-2) is unlikely to get in, even if it beats North Texas (11-1). However, it's possible if Virginia and James Madison both lose.
The winners of the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will get in. The losers of the Big Ten and Big 12 will likely get at-large bids unless they're blown out badly, but Alabama will need to win the SEC to earn a spot; according to my formula, it just doesn't have enough Playoff Chase points to get an at-large berth. If North Texas and James Madison win their leagues and Virginia loses, they both should get a spot over the ACC champ Duke.
In the ranking, Playoff Chase Points reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the teams it lost to and the margin of defeat. The "(+[number]) indicates the number of Playoff Chase points a team stands to gain if it beats that opponent in the week's championship game.
Ohio State (12-0) 69 vs Indiana (+12) for Big Ten title
Indiana (12-0) 68 vs Ohio St (+12) for Big Ten title
Oregon (11-1) 64 no game
BYU (11-1) 62 vs Texas Tech (+11) for Big 12 title
Oklahoma (10-2) 61 no game
Georgia (11-1) 59 vs Alabama (+10) for SEC title
North Texas (11-1) 55 vs Tulane (+10) for AAC title
Texas Tech (11-1) 53 vs BYU (+11) for Big 12 title
Texas A&M (11-1) 52 no game
Ole Miss (11-1) 51 no game
Notre Dame (10-2) 49 no game
James Madison (11-1)48 vs Troy (+8) for Sun Belt title
Alabama (10-2) 47 vs Georgia (+11) for SEC title
Virginia (10-2) 46 vs Duke (+7) for ACC title
Georgia Tech (9-3) 45 no game
Arizona (9-3) 44 no game
Miami (FL) (10-2) 43 no game
USC (9-3) 40 no game
Utah (10-2) 38 no game
Vanderbilt (10-2) 38 no game
Tulane (10-2) 37 vs North Texas (+11) for the AAC title.
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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.
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