Independent Country

James Leroy Wilson's one-man magazine.

Thursday, September 04, 2025

2025 NFL Predictions

Image: Torsten Bolten

Here are my predictions for the final standings of the NFL divisions in 2025. They are based solely on the rankings of the head coach by career winning percentage and the best-performing quarterbacks over the past three seasons, as determined by "The measure of a quarterback."

For each team, I provide the name and rank of the head coach, followed by the name and rank of the quarterback. Then, you'll see the sum of their rankings. I predict that the lower the number, the higher the eam will finish.

These predictions don't take into account any success young quarterbacks and new coaches may have (all five first-year coaches are ranked 28th). But it doesn't take non-QB roster moves into account either. The Cowboys traded perennial All-Pro defensive end Micah Parsons to the Packers, but it didn't elevate the Packers or drop the Cowboys. These predictions are an experiment on the hypothesis that the coach/QB combo, by itself, can predict regular-season success.

That said, the prediction I'm most nervous about is the Seahawks, because one great season with the Vikings in 2024 inflated Sam Darnold's ranking. I'm also anxious about the Dolphins making the playoffs, not optimistic that Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy.   

Among teams with new coaches or young quarterbacks, I could see the Jaguars (with a new coach in Liam Coen) taking the playoff spot I have reserved for the Dolphins. The Titans, with first-overall QB pick Cam Ward, may pass the Colts for 3rd in the AFC South. I'd like to think the Bears will be much better, but for them to even catch third place in the NFC North, some other team will have to regress sharply. The most likely candidate is the Vikings, as they have an unknown quantity in new starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Teams predicted to make the playoffs are in bold. If I successfully predict a team to make the playoffs, even if my prediction for how they finished in the standings is off, I'll still consider it correct.

NFC EAST

  1. Eagles: Nick Siriani (1); Jalen Hurts (4): 5

  2. Commanders: Dan Quinn (17); Jayden Daniels (10): 27

  3. Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer (28); Dak Prescott (8): 36

  4. Giants: Brian Daboll (24); Russell Wilson (24): 48


NFC NORTH


  1. Packers: Matt Lafleur (3), Jordan Love (9): 12 

  2. Lions: Dan Campbell (14); Jared Goff (5): 19

  3. Vikings: Kevin O'Connell (4); J.J. McCarthy (30): 34

  4. Bears: Ben Johnson (28); Caleb Williams (29): 57



NFC SOUTH


  1. Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (22); Baker Mayfield (19): 41

  2. Falcons: Raheem Morris (23); Michael Penix (22): 45

  3. Panthers: Dave Canales (26); Bryce Young (28): 54

  4. Saints: Kellen Moore (28); Spencer Rattler (32*) 60


NFC WEST


  1. Seahawks: Mike Macdonald (12); Sam Darnold (17): 29

  2. Rams: Sean McVay (10); Matthew Stafford (20): 30

  3. 49ers: Kyle Shanahan (18); Brock Purdy (14): 32

  4. Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon (25): Kyler Murray (16): 41


AFC EAST


  1. Bills: Sean McDermott (5); Josh Allen (1): 6

  2. Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (15); Tua Tagovailoa (7): 22

  3. Patriots: Mike Vrabel (16); Drake Maye (25): 41

  4. Jets: Aaron Glenn (28); Justin Fields (27): 55


AFC NORTH


  1. Ravens: John Harbaugh (8); Lamar Jackson (6): 14

  2. Bengals: Zac Taylor (21); Joe Burrow (3): 24

  3. Steelers: Mike Tomlin (7); Aaron Rodgers (23): 30

  4. Browns: Kevin Stefanski: (20); Joe Flacco (13): 33



AFC SOUTH


  1. Texans: DeMeco Ryans (11); C.J. Stroud (21): 32

  2. Jaguars: Liam Coen (28); Trevor Lawrence (15): 43

  3. Colts: Shane Steichen (19); Daniel Jones* (26): 45

  4. Titans: Brian Callahan (27); Cam Ward (31): 59


AFC WEST


  1. Chiefs: Andy Reid (6); Patrick Mahomes (2): 8

  2. Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (2); Justin Herbert (12): 13

  3. Broncos: Sean Payton (9); Bo Nix (11): 20

  4. Raiders: Pete Carroll (13); Geno Smith (18): 31


* Not listed in my original rankings, assigned the same ranking as I did to the team's original predicted starter.



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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.
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