Photo credit: Tage Olsin
In this issue:
Ryne Sandberg's MVP season
2025 NL and AL MVP Chases
Ryne Sandberg, 1959-2025
I had taken a break from the MVP Chase over much of the summer, but wanted to acknowledge the passing of Ryne Sandberg, who played for the Cubs in the 1980s and '90s and is considered the best second baseman of his era.
After devising the concept of the MVP Chase for baseball last year, I examined Sandberg's MVP season of 1984. I intended to publish the findings, but didn't get around to it. His conventional numbers weren't eye-popping – far from it: .314 batting average, 19 home runs, 84 runs batted in. So, how could he be an MVP?
One reason is that he was the best player on a first-place team. Additionally, the voters - professional baseball writers - watched the games with their own eyes and thought he was playing exceptionally well. However, I believe I have quantified the "eyeball test" with a statistic that didn't exist then and only exists now on this Substack.
The MVP Chase reflects the number of games in which:
The player's team won the game
The player had three or more Bases Gained (BG): total bases + walks + steals
Three Bases Gained is what I have judged to be a very good offensive outing. The MVP doesn't have to have had the best game in every one of his team's victories, but he had to have made a substantial contribution to the victory. 3 BGs is the sign of that. Therefore, the player in a league who had the most 3 BG games in victories should be the MVP.
I looked at the 1984 NL leaders in OPS (minimum 135 games played) to review the potential MVP candidates. In order of their OPS, here are the number of 3-BGs in victories:
Mike Schmidt, Phillies: 35
Dale Murphy, Braves 46
Ryne Sandberg, Cubs 51
Chili Davis, Giants 23
Leon Durham, Cubs 44
Keith Hernandez, Mets 38
Tony Gwynn, Padres 48
Gary Carter, Expos 33
Jose Cruz, Astros 43
Jeffrey Leonard, Giants 25
Sandberg was fourth in the NL in batting average and was out of the top ten in HRs and RBI. However, he had the most good games in the most victories, and provides proof of the MVP Chase concept.
MVP CHASES
That said, we'll look at the National and American League MVP chases as of all games played through August 29, 2025. The first number beside each player is the number of 3 bases games games in wins. The second number is the total number of team wins. So that, for instance, in the 77 Dodger victories, Shohei Ohtani had 47 3-BG games.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers 47/77
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies 47/78
Juan Soto, Mets 41/73
Kyle Tucker, Cubs 39/77
Manny Machado, Padres, 37/75
Seiya Suzuki, Cubs 36/77
Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres, 35/75
James Wood, Nationals 33/53
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks 33/67
Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks 33/67
Pete Alonso, Mets 33/73
Michael Busch, Cubs 33/77
Christian Yelich, Brewers 33/84
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Cal Raleigh, Mariners 43/72
Aaron Judge, Yankees 42/75
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Blue Jays 39/78
Bobby Witt Jr, Royals 37/69
George Springer, Blue Jays 36/78
Junior Caminero, Rays 34/65
Riley Greene, Tigers 33/79
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers, 32/79
Brent Rooker, Athletics 30/63
Jose Ramirez, Guardians 30/67
Cody Bellinger, Yankees 30/77
Subscription rates to the MVP Chase are the lowest that Substack allows: $5 per month or $30 per year (a 50% discount). You can also support me through PayPal or contact me using an alternative method. The more support I have, the more content you'll see. Contact me for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
Check out JL Cells for my non-sports writing.
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