The measure of a quarterback

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

In the Spring, I developed a Quarterback Efficiency Rating. I then applied it to the 2024 season and concluded it's better than the NFL's Passer Rating stat and less complicated than ESPN's QBR.  However, this summer I've been wondering if an even simpler formula exists that conforms with the results in the field and what we see with our eyes. While the QER measures things I correctly thought were overlooked in the Passer Rating, such as First Down % and Sack rate, they are unnecessary. 

In short:

The measure of a quarterback is the number of good plays he makes minus the number of bad plays.

The way to find this out is with what I call the Quarterback Index (QBI) that accounts for the significant plays involving the qb:

• Total up the quarterbacks' first downs and touchdowns, both passing and rushing.

• Subtract the total number of interceptions, sacks, and fumbles.

That's it!

The QBI recognizes the importance of first downs rather than minutiae like whether the qb averages 7.5 or 8.0 yards per pass. It measures a quarterback's efficiency not by percentages, but by on-field results.

Remarkably, different weights don't need to be assigned to each play. For instance, each touchdown carries the same weight as each first down. Each interception is deducted the same as a sack or fumble, and it doesn't matter if the fumble is recovered or lost.

The numbers bear this out with the results on the field and with our eyes. Here are the leaders (on a per-game basis) in 2024 among players who played last year and are projected to start this year.

GLOSSARY

• GS: Games Started

• SP: Superior Plays (or Smart Plays)

• BP: Bad Plays

• QBIS: Quarterback Index for the season

• QBIP: Quarterback Index Per Game; although not included here, "QBIG" would be a quarterback's Index for a particular game.

Note: Teams are the current team of the player, even if they played and won games for a different team last year.

The four quarterbacks universally acknowledged as the best in football finished in the top four in QBIP. Of quarterbacks with double-digit starts, 12 of the top 13 had winning records.

Here are all the projected starters for 2025 and how they did over the 2022-24 seasons:

Among quarterbacks with 32 or more starts, the top ten of QBIP all had winning records. Five of the top six are in the top five in wins over 2022-24, with Joe Burrow tied for seventh.

Among players with 40+ starts, the BP (bad plays) typically average 45-55 per season. Those who are substantially higher are usually sacked more often. 

I'm working on a hypothesis that a quarterback has a great game if he has a QBIG of 14 or more in a game. That means his touchdowns and first downs exceed his sacks, interceptions, and fumbles by 14. I'll see if I can apply that to the MVP Chase this season.

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