The NHL MVP Chase winner

 

Photo credit: Santeri Viinamäki

The NHL completed its regular season last week. It's time for members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association to fill out their Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) ballots.

The NHL MVP Chase can help inform their ballots. It counts up the number of games in which players made significant contributions to team success:

• A  skater earns an MVP point if his points (goals and assists) plus +/- equals two or more in a win or OT loss. 

• A goalie earns an MVP Chase point each time he allows two goals or fewer in a win or OT loss.

In a year with no statistically dominant skater, Kyle Connor of the Jets came out on top with 40 MVP Chase points. He's unlikely to win it, however. Although he was the best skater on the best team, he was "only" seventh in the league in points and eighth among the top ten scorers in +/-. His goalie's dominant season helped him win so many games.

That goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, finished second in the MVP Chase. He's the one who should win the Hart Trophy:

• Hellebuyck tied for first with Andrei Vasilevskiy of Tampa Bay among goalies in games played, with 63.

• His 47 wins led the NHL; Vasilevskiy was a distant second with 38.

• His 0.925 save percentage also led the NHL.

• In 39 of 50 games he played for the Jets in which they earned at least one point in the standings, he allowed two goals or fewer.

Here's the final list. In the event of ties, the player from the team that finished higher in the standings is ranked ahead.

1. Kyle Connor, LW, Jets, 40 MVP points

2. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Jets, 39

3. Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs, 39

4. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning, 39

5. Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning, 37

6. Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers, 36

7. Aliaksei Protas, C, Capitals, 35

8. Jack Eichel, C, Knights, 35

9. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche, 33

10. Cale Makar, D, Avalanche, 33

11. Connor McDavid, C, Oilers, 33

NBA MVP Re-examination

I anointed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) as the NBA's MVP last week. I determined that he had 50 games in which he played great, and his team won. 

 

The standard for a "playing great" is: Game Score plus +/- is 30 or more. I realized I haven't named this statistic; I'll call it "Game Score Plus" or GSP.

What if Nikola Jokic had as many or more 30+ GSP games as SGA, even though not in as many victories?

I examined the top five finishers in the MVP Chase and analyzed the total number of 30+ GSP games they had, along with their team's records for these games.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: 54 (50-4)

2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 48 (39-9)

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks 37 (34-3)

4. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks 36 (32-4)

5. Jayson Tatum, Celtics 34 (31-3)

Jokic comes in second to SGA in most 30+ GSP games as well as in most 30+ GSP wins. The order for the top five is the same whether we're counting total games or just wins. It's notable that when the other players had these games, their teams hovered around a 90% win rate, while Jokic's Nuggets were barely over 80%. 

SGA and Jokic were on another level, with Giannis the best of the rest. SGA, however, had as many great games in wins as the Nuggets had total wins. That's strong evidence that he contributed the most to the team's success this year. 

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