Bracket Update and Controversial NBA MVPs

 

Photo: Public Domain

IN THIS ISSUE of the MVP CHASE:

• NCAA Bracket Update

• Convertoverial NBA MVPs

NCAA Bracket Update

Well, that experiment didn't provide promising results. Last week, I ranked all the NCAA Men's Tournament teams, based in part on how often they were decisively beaten. How's it turning out so far?

I accurately picked 20 of the 32 games in the round of 64, which is not good, and predicted just 8 of the Sweet 16. On the plus side, six of my Elite Eight are still alive, and three of the Final Four. St. John's, which I had in the championship game, has already been eliminated, but my champ, Duke, is alive.

If I had signed up for a small pool of, say, 10-12 with money going to a third-place finisher, I might still have hoped to win some money. As it is, however, I was in a free-to-enter contest with millions of participants, and my current rank is 2,576,102. 

In any case, my hypothesis was destroyed regardless of how well I finish. I predicted six "surprise" teams, seeded fifth or lower, to make the Sweet 16. Four teams seeded fifth or lower actually did make the Sweet 16, but I didn't pick any of them.

Maybe I'll try something else next year.

Controversial NBA MVPs

My current process of choosing MVPs is the number of games won in which the player had a combined Game Score and +/- of 30 or more.

I was curious how this would have affected my MVP vote in years where there were controversial winners. I selected seasons from Robert Felton's 2018 Bleacher Report piece on the subject, plus 1993 (Barkley over Jordan) and 2017 (Westbrook's triple-double year).

It turns out that for three of the seasons, the data is not available. It's noteworthy, however, that the winner in those years was on a team that won more games than the other favorite (number of team wins are in parentheses). The MVP of each year is the first one listed.

1975 

Bob McAdoo (49)

Rick Barry (48)

1990 

Magic Johnson (63)

Charles Barkley (53)

1993 

Charles Barkley (62)

Michael Jordan (57)

For the following seasons, the name at the top of each year is the MVP winner, followed by another name(s) that many people have claimed should have won it. The player who would have won my MVP Chase is in bold. Beside each name is the number of wins in which the player had a combined game score and +/- over 30. The number of team wins is in parentheses. 

1996-97

Karl Malone 42 (62)

Michael Jordan 48 (69)

1999 (48-game season)

Karl Malone 18 (37)

Tim Duncan 20 (37)

Alonzo Mourning 16 (33)

2002 

Tim Duncan 40 (60)

Jason Kidd 29 (49)

2005

Steve Nash 29 (58)

Shaquille O'Neal 22 (59)

2006

Steve Nash 30 (54)

Kobe Bryant 33 (45)

Dirk Nowitzki 36 (60) (Curious how Nowitzki wasn't mentioned in the Bleacher Report article; I was reminded of his great season in a Bill Simmons podcast).

2011 (66-game season)

Derrick Rose 28 (62)

Lebron James 35 (58)

Dwight Howard 26 (52)

2016-17 (Not in the Bleacher Report piece; all players receiving votes are included in order. This year was controversial because some believe Westbrook was handed the award only because he averaged a triple-double for the season.)

Russell Westbrook 40 (47)

James Harden 34 (55)

Kawhi Leonard 31 (61)

LeBron James 39 (51)

Isaiah Thomas 25 (53)

Stephen Curry 42 (67)

Giannis Antetokounmpo 26 (42)

John Wall 26 (49)

Anthony Davis 24 (34)

Kevin Durant 35 (67)

DeMar DeRozan 20 (51)

In the seven years with data, the MVP Chase would have agreed with just two of the MVPs. There were, however, only two obviously wrong choices, in 1997 and 2006. In 1999 and 2011, the "best player on the best (regular-season) team" won. 

In 2017, Westbrook did indeed deserve the award among the top-5 vote getters. Curry was "punished" for having won the MVP the two previous years, blowing the championship series the season before (raising questions of whether he was overrated), and adding Durant, one of the three best players in the world, to his team.

Based on my last piece and the data here, I think I'm on the right track in determining the NBA MVP.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscription and support! James is available for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.