We know who won't be NBA MVP

 

Photo: Public Domain

The February 1 trade of Luka Doncic of the Mavericks for Anthony Davis of the Lakers shook the sports world, and the news dominated the early part of Super Bowl week.

Doncic hasn't played since Christmas and just 22 games so far this season. When he did play, his offensive numbers were down slightly from previous years. He's been criticized for his conditioning, which some have blamed for his injuries. He's also been criticized for being an indifferent defender at times.

Even so, he's still regarded as one of the four best players in the league. The Lakers gave up one of the perennial ten-best players in Davis, plus another player and a first-round pick for Doncic, and that is still considered a steal.

I don't know the reasons behind the trade, but it sounds like a decision-maker for the Mavericks doesn't think Doncic is reliable and that Davis is better for the team right now. If the Mavs win a championship with Davis and the Lakers don't with Doncic, the Mavs will have been proven right. Right now, however, the overwhelming majority of observers believe the Mavs made a bad deal.

One thing we can be certain of: neither Doncic nor Davis will win the MVP Chase this season. I mean, if a team trades you, how valuable can you be? While it would've been impossible for Doncic, Davis was also significantly trailing the leaders and his MVP chances were slim to none even if he had remained a Laker.

In the NBA MVP Chase, I determine the "value" of "most valuable player by:

• Winning the game.

• Minutes Played (MP) in the game: How important the coach thought the player was in securing the victory.

• Plus-Minus (+/): This is points scored minus points allowed when the player was on the court. Because the team has only five players on the court, as opposed to nine or eleven on a field, +/- strongly suggests how valuable a player was in contributing to team efficiency.

The candidate pool for the NBA MVP  Chase consists of players who have a Player Efficiency (PER) Rating of 20 or more. For each, I count the number of games in which:

• His team won

• He had a +/- of 10 or more

• When the player's +/- was less than 10, the sum of Minutes Played and +/- was 40 or more (for example, 36 MP and a +/- of 6 is 42, which counts toward the MVP).

Here are the MVP Chase standings through games played through February 7, 2025:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, 35

2. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers, 30

3. Jayson Tatum, Celtics 28

4. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 26

5. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks 26

6. Donovan Mitchell, 26

7. Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies 25

8. Darius Garland, Cavaliers, 25

9. Jalen Brunson, Knicks, 24

10. Pascal Siakam, Pacers, 22

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! James is available for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.