Tonight (February 6, 2025), the NFL Honors telecast will announce the league's Most Valuable Player (and other awards) and the 2025 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Jahymyr Gibbs of the Lions won my MVP Chase.
The reasons?
My standard for MVP is significant contributions to victories.
The Lions co-led the NFL in victories with fifteen.
Gibbs gained 90 yards from scrimmage in eleven wins and scored touchdowns in the other four.
Gibbs, however, isn't a candidate for the Associated Press-chosen NFL MVP. My #2 choice, Derrick Henry, isn't either. That's because the NFL media wants to make the MVP the Heisman Trophy, an "outstanding player" award. Well, my third choice, Saquon Barkley fits the bill with a 2,000-yard season; four of eight previous 2,000-yard rushers have won it.
My fourth choice, Lamar Jackson, is in an even rarer club. His 119.6 single-season passer rating is the fourth-best of all time. However, passer rating isn't determinative of MVP. Five times, a quarterback finished the season with a ten-best-ever passer rating but did not win MVP.
My #5 is Jared Goff, on my list because of his significant contributions to 12 of the 15 Lions victories. Goff won't win the MVP, but he fits the profile of one who does.
Before the season, I tested an assumption I heard at the time that the MVP would be a quarterback from a top-two seed. It turns out that "a quarterback on a top-2 seed has won the MVP for eleven consecutive years."
The last time one didn't, a 2,000-yard rusher did (Adrian Peterson, 2012). But we've had a 2,000-yard rusher since then (Henry, 2020). 2,000 yards may help Barkley's chances, but the most likely winner is . . .
Josh Allen, quarterback, Buffalo Bills.
The Bills finished as the #2 seed in the AFC with a 13-4 record. Of the top-2 seed quarterbacks in 2024:
Patrick Mahomes was just average statistically.
Jalen Hurts didn't even throw for 3,000 yards.
Goff threw twice as many interceptions and was sacked over twice as often as Allen.
Allen had lesser talent around him (at least that is the perception) than Hurts and Goff.
Allen led the league in QBR (edging out Jackson by a tenth of a point.)
My prediction is that the MVP will go to Josh Allen.
I have no comment or opinion on most of the other awards handed out tonight because I haven't given them much thought. I'll just mention that the Offensive Player of the Year will likely go to Barkley or Jackson because of their historic seasons. There's a lot of buzz about Joe Burrow, who led the NFL in several passing categories. His season, however, couldn't be called historic.
Pro Football Hall of Fame
I will address the five non-player/non-modern-era candidates first.
Two of them are alive: Mike Holmgren and Sterling Sharpe. They ought to get in because they deserve it. We don't know what tomorrow brings, so honor them while they're around to enjoy it.
Holmgren is just one of twelve coaches to win three conference championships; the others except (the unjustly snubbed) Dan Reeves are in the Hall of Fame or shoo-ins (Bill Belichick, Andy Reid). Of the top 30 in wins (Holmgren is 21st), all eligible coaches with a Super Bowl ring except Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin are in the Hall.
Sterling Sharpe compares favorably with three wide receiver finalists this year: Steve Smith Sr., Reggie Wayne, and Torry Holt. Yes, they played longer and are much higher in the career statistics lists. But Sharpe had more First-Team All-Pro selections (3) than any of them, and five Pro Bowl selections (equal to Smith, one behind Wayne, two behind Holt) in his seven seasons.
In his time, Sharpe was viewed as unquestionably the second-best receiver behind Jerry Rice. Wayne and Holt were viewed as unquestionably the second-best receivers on their own teams (playing with Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce, respectively).
Among the deceased, Jim Tyrer (9 Pro Bowls, 6 1st-Team All-Pros) has the strongest case. The tragic end of his life (responsible for a murder-suicide in 1980) delayed what would have been an induction in the 1980s. Recent information about the likelihood that Tryer suffered from CTE may lead to his induction.
Maxie Baughan, who passed away in 2023, was named to 9 Pro Bowls and first-team All-Pro once. Ralph Hay was co-founder of the NFL which originated in Canton Ohio, owner of the Canton Bulldogs team he owned and is the reason the Hall of Fame is located there. However, he sold the Bulldogs in 1923. His induction would be a historical adjustment but not a correction of an injustice.
The Hall's rules say that every year at least four but no more than eight candidates must be inducted. I would include Holmgren and Sharpe this year and hope the others get in soon.
I'll rank the modern players by how deserving they are. How do I decide that? In my estimation, the only way to compare a linebacker to an offensive tackle without bias is in the honors they've already received.
As alluded to above, Sharpe's tally of Pro Bowls and All-Pro teams is an argument for his induction. It reflects the judgment of his peers and those who covered the NFL.
Take Jerry Rice. He had 13 Pro Bowls and 10 First-Team All-Pros. So his Hall of Fame score is 13 + 10 or 23. Imagine there were several other players to consider when Rice was eligible and all their scores were 23. In that case, I would include additional individual honors (Offensive Player of the Year, for example) and championships. (I wouldn't include Super Bowl MVPs; a Hall of Fame career can't be based on one game). If there was still a "tie" after those considerations, I would put stronger weight on the number of All-Pro teams.
Using this reasoning, this is how I'd rank the current slate of candidates.
Luke Kuechly
Terrell Suggs
Antonio Gates
Jahri Evans
George Yanda
Jared Allen
Darren Woodson
Torry Holt
Eric Allen
Willie Anderson
Steve Smith
Reggie Wayne
Adam Vinatieri
Eli Manning
Fred Taylor
I know the Hall of Fame selection committee has its weird behavior; those who don't get in should carry over into consideration next year unless several strong new candidates become eligible. But that's not how they work; I don't know how they work.
I'm not opposed to Adam Vinatieri and anyone above him from getting into the Hall. He is the league's all-time leading scorer and is famous for clutch field goals including a couple of Super Bowls. (Although it should be noted that the clutch kicks in the playoffs broke tied games; they weren't win-or-lose kicks).
Eli Manning deserves his status as an immortal in Super Bowl lore and Giants history. He just wasn't good enough to belong in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. When I collected data on The Greatest Passers of All Time, I found that he didn't have a season in which he reached the Adjusted (for era) Passer Rating benchmark of 115. Which is to say, Eli was never an elite passer.
Eli's career was a resounding success. Four Pro Bowl selections. Few players are drafted first overall and win multiple titles for the team that drafted them. Even Eli's brother Peyton didn't do that. But during his career, there were always several quarterbacks in the league that you would have taken over Eli. Those who are old enough to remember know this.
And if there are not just one or two, but several guys better than you, you're not a Hall of Famer.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! Contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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