The 2024 Baseball Awards

 

Photo credit: Tage Olsin

If you're reading this on the publishing date or shortly after, Happy Thanksgiving! Otherwise, have a happy day anyway!

This came a few weeks later than I had planned, but I hope you will find this enlightening.

IN THIS ISSUE

• World Series MVP

• NL and AL MVPs

• CY Young Winners

WORLD SERIES MVP

The MVP Chase would have voted for Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers as the World Series MVP, using the same criteria I used for the regular-season MVPs below. Freeman, of course, did win.

NL AND AL MVPS

As selected by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BWAA), Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge were unanimous choices for NL and AL MVP, respectively. While the buzz was about their home runs and (in Ohtani's case) stolen bases, the reason they would have earned their first-place votes from me was because of Bases Gained, a concept I introduced last month:

Bases Gained is Total Bases plus Bases on Balls (walks) plus Stolen Bases. It measures a player's productivity on offense independent of the batting production of teammates; it's what he does by himself with his bat and his feet.

In 2024, Ohani had 411 Total Bases, 81 Bases on Balls (walks), and 59 steals. That sums up to 551 Bases Gained, 124 more than NL second-place finisher Elly De La Cruz. In the AL, Judge had 535 Bases Gained, 71 more than second-place finisher (and teammate) Juan Soto. (Data compiled from Stathead.)

Although I'm the only one using it, Bases Gained is the most important stat because it's about actual production. Averages, percentages, and comparisons to hypothetical replacement players are useful in determining the "best" player, but production is what wins games.

Production and winning games are the foundations of the MVP Chase philosophy across all sports: the most valuable players are the ones who made significant contributions to the most number of victories with the greatest frequency.

That's why Bases Gained, by itself, wouldn't have determined my votes (if I had the privilege of voting for the MVP) for Ohtani and Judge. It was Bases Gained in victories that mattered. After analyzing the data, I concluded that if a player had at least three bases gained, by any means (including, for example, three walks), he made a significant contribution to the win. He was probably not the only one on the team who did; there may have been two or three other guys who also had at least three Bases Gained. It's not how often you were the very best on your team in a given victory, but how often you were one of the top 2-4 guys in a victory. Three Bases Gained (BGs) is a reliable predictor of that. 

The BWAA voters submit ten names to the MVP ballot, so ten names are in my final ranking. Although both the NL and AL each have a pitcher in their top ten, in my view no pitcher pitched enough innings to qualify for the MVP in the way they might have a generation ago.

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP CHASE LEADERS

Seven of the top eleven in Bases Gained found their way onto the MVP Chase ballot, as they were in the top ten in 3+ Bases Gained in victories. Although in a different order, seven of the top top finishers in BWAA voting were also in the top ten in BG. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP CHASE LEADERS

The American League rankings are more striking. While eight of the top ten BG leaders would have been on my ballot, all nine of the top nine finished in the top ten of the BWAA vote, along with a pitcher.

I don't know the rationale for each BWAA voter; some may be caught up in the moment ("Ohtani is the first 50 HR/50 SB guy! He's my MVP!") But I do think my Bases Gained ranking and, arguably, my 3+BG Games in Wins ranking, could be valuable guideposts for voters in future seasons. Most voters are already, unconsciously, favoring BG; it should be a recognized stat.

CY YOUNG AWARD WINNERS

The Cy Young award is about the best pitcher of the year, not necessarily the "most valuable." I looked at:

• Innings Pitched (IP): regardless of number of games or starts

• Bases Allowed (BA) and Bases Allowed Per Inning (BAP) - Like Bases Gained, BA is a stat I made up and is its opposite. Unlike WHIP (Walks Plus Hits Per Inning), BAP accounts for whether those hits were singles, doubles, triples, or home runs. It also takes into account stolen bases, which pitchers are partially responsible for allowing.

• Earned Run Average (ERA)

I incorporated both BAP and ERA into my Cy Young voting because they measure slightly different but important things. Pitcher Al gives up two singles and three walks but no runs for a BA of 5; Pitcher Bob gives up nothing but one home run for a BA of 4. Assuming nine innings pitched, Al has an ERA of zero for the game, but he faced more batters and probably threw more pitches, which probably affects his efficiency in upcoming games. Bob was probably more efficient overall, but he allowed a run.

It's like evaluating a football's defense: you can't just look at yards allowed, you need to look at points allowed. Similarly, bases allowed and runs allowed both have to be taken into account.

I looked at the top two hundred pitchers in innings pitched from each league, and ranked them by IP, BAP, and ERA. By adding together their respective ranks, we got a total rank number. The player with the lowest number would have received my first-place Cy Young vote. As BWAA voters have only five names on their ballots, I'm providing the top five finishers in the last column.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG

AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG

The MVP Chase would have agreed with the top three NL vote-getters and the top two AL vote-getters. The chief difference in the AL was Emmanuel Clase finishing third in the BWAA voting. The reliever had a very low BAP and ERA, and even a top ranking in both might not indicate the dominance. 

My Cy Young system is a work in progress but I do think it quantifies the right things for the voters to consider.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.