College Football Playoff Chase November 15, 2024

College Football Playoff Chase

I have shifted my process for the College Football Playoff Chase. I am using the same criteria, but will no longer try to crunch them into a single number. Instead, I separated the criteria into five separate rankings, four of which really matter (shown here), and one tie-breaker ranking (to be explained at the end).

The higher a team is ranked in each category, the higher their overall ranking. Entering Week 12, I assembled the 34 teams with seven or more wins and ranked them in these categories.

1. Wins: There are two 10-win teams, which lead the nation. They are both ranked "1" in the "Wins" column below. The three teams with nine wins are all tied with a "3" ranking. Twelve teams have eight wins and are tied with a "6." Seventeen teams have seven wins and are ranked "18" in wins.

2. Strength of Wins (SW below): Ranking teams by the combined number of wins of the teams it has beaten. For instance, The ten teams Oregon has beaten have combined to win 44 FBS games, leading the nation. Remarkably, Alabama (16th overall)  is second in this ranking. Despite beating just seven teams so far, those teams have combined to win 43 FBS games. (Wins against FCS teams count, but the wins by FCS teams, against FCS competition, don't count). 

3. Strength of Losses (SL below): Ranking teams by the combined losses of the teams it was beaten by. For example, The two teams Alabama has lost to have themselves combined for five losses, which is 19th-best. The ranking has seven at "1," the four undefeated teams (Oregon, Indiana, BYU, Army), who've lost to nobody, and three teams: Boise State, Ohio State, and SMU, whose only losses are to one of these undefeated teams. 

4. Points Differential in Losses (L Pts below): The more badly a team's been beaten - the more points away they are from going undefeated - the weaker the case can make that they deserve to compete with the best of the best in the playoffs.

Three of the criteria favor undefeated teams, making it virtually impossible for an undefeated team to be out of the playoff picture. And that's how it should be. Strength of Wins, however, will play a major factor in seeding; undefeated Army, for instance, stands at seventh instead of in the top four. 

This is not a ranking of the best teams. For instance, it does not mean I would bet on Army against Notre Dame. But it is a snapshot, entering Week 12, of where teams are positioned for the twelve-team playoff. By the end of November 30th, all will have played twelve games, and the conference championship games will be played the following weekend. A lot can change, but I do not see myself tinkering with these categories. I think this system will provide for the fairest playoffs. 

Regarding the unlisted fifth category: Where teams would be tied in their cumulative rankings (#14-15, #24-25), I consider how often a team has won by nine or more points. That is, how many victories were non-controversial because victory and defeat were decided by more than one play or possession? No one bad call would cause someone to say that the beneficiary should have lost the game. Ole Miss had more "convincing" victories than Washington State, and Iowa State had more convincing victories than Pitt. This fifth category will only really matter when the playoff teams are selected and there is a tie between playoff teams for seeding purposes, or there is a tie between the last team and the last team left out.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.