NFL MVP Chase and FBS Playoff Chase Oct 16 2024

 

Photo credit: Torsten Bolten

In this Issue:

NFL MVP Chase

FBS Playoff Chase

• NFL MVP Chase

Note: the MVP Chase is explained here. 

The Vikings had a bye week last week, giving several players the chance to pass Sam Darnold as the leader of the MVP Chase. Two stepped up to the challenge, with Derrick Henry claiming the top stop and C.J. Stroud second. Week 14 is the bye week for both, so if their teams keep winning we could have a back-and-forth affair.

Then again, any player ranked 3-8 could claim the #1 spot depending on who wins, who loses, and who has a great game. We can also congratulate D'Andre Swift for cracking the Top Ten, but he'll probably slip out as the Bears have a bye this week. In the second ten, Caleb Williams is, perhaps surprisingly, ahead of fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, but he'll be off just like his teammate Swift. 

Here is the top twenty in the MVP Chase.

1. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans, 5.746 MVP Points
2. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans, 5.196
3. Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings, 4.649
4. Josh Allen, QB, Bills, 4.377
5. David Montgomery, RB, Lions, 4.250
6. Jared Goff, QB, Lions, 4.231
7. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings, 4.210
8. Nico Collins, WR, Texans, 4.203
9. D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
10. Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings, 4.060
11. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers 4.020
12. Justin Fields, QB, Steelers, 3.911
13. Chris Godwin, RB, Buccaneers, 3.650
14. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears, 3.572
15. Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers, 3.542
16. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders, 3.471
17. Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers, 3.450
18. James Cook, RB, Bills, 3.350
19. Jameson Williams, WR, Lions, 3.310
20. Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons, 3.292

FBS Playoff Chase

The FBS Playoff Chase is my way of selecting the 12-team College Football Playoff at the end of the regular season. The system balances strength of schedule with dominance over the schedule while controlling for runaway scores. Ideally, the top 12 in my FBS points system at the end of the season will be in the playoffs.

One undefeated team is not in my Top 25. Liberty's (5-0) opponents have won a total of six games against FBS teams, and Liberty's best win is against 3-3 East Carolina. A game against Appalachian State was canceled due to Hurricane Helene and if the Flames find a replacement opponent for a twelfth game, it will likely come from the lower-division FCS. Unlike most teams from less-respected conferences, Liberty has no games against a Power Four (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) team.

In contrast, Boise State lost by a field goal to undefeated Oregon and trounced Washington State, a Power-4 level team. That's why they're a more realistic playoff contender at this point.

Texas has taken command of the Playoff Chase. Its six opponents have won 19 games and the Longhorns dominated five of the six. They might lose to Georgia this week and still keep the top spot.

Here are the Top 25 in FBS Playoff points as of October 15, 2024. The FBS Playoff points are on the left, and teams tied in points are listed alphabetically.

30 Texas (6-0) -SEC

24 Alabama (5-1) - SEC

24 BYU (6-0) - Big 12

24 Ohio State (5-1) - Big Ten

24 Oregon (6-0) - Big Ten

23 Indiana (6-0) - Big Ten

23 Iowa St (6-0) - Big 12

23 Ohio St (5-1) - Big Ten

22 Boise St (5-1) - Mountain West

21 James Madison (5-1) - Sun Belt

21 Miami FL (6-0) - ACC

20 Army (6-0) - AAC

20 Penn St (6-0) - Big Ten

19 Notre Dame (5-1) - Independent

18 Pitt (6-0) - ACC

18 Texas Tech (5-1) - Big 12

17 Georgia (5-1) - SEC

17 Kansas St (5-1) - Big 12

17 Navy (5-0) - AAC

17 SMU (5-1) - ACC

17 Texas A&M (5-1) - SEC

17 Washington St (5-1) - Pac 

16 Nebraska (5-1) - Big Ten

16 Ole Miss (5-2) - SEC

16 Syracuse (5-1) - ACC

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.