The 2023 NBA MVP

Photo: public domain

Due to other obligations, it's been a while since I've been able to post on the MVP Chase. As you probably know by now, Joel Embiid won the 2022-23 NBA MVP award.

When I last wrote about the NBA MVP chase on March 12, I had misgivings about Embiid's candidacy. But today I looked at how I would have voted based on the formula I settled on last year:

The Hollinger Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a good generalization of the quality of a player. The leader in PER usually has a PER in the low 30s. The team with the best record usually wins 60+ games. I saw an opportunity to equally balance:

• # of games won when the player played (GW) 

• The player's season-to-date PER

We can do this simply:

MVP Chase Points Total  = GW/2 + PER

If I used that formula this year, my MVP ballot would look like this:

1. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

2. Joel Embiid, 76ers 

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics 

5. Domantas Sabonis, Kings

The MVP results showed near-unanimity in selecting the top four players, and they were my top four as well in a slightly different order. Embiid took 73 of the 100 first-place votes. He was virtually tied with Jokic in PER (Jokic: 31.5, Embiid 31.4). My formula gave the nod to Jokic because he played in more victories; contributing to wins should be what the award is about.

I'm not, however, angry that Embiid won the award. My criteria are very raw and don't take into account other statistics or the "eyeball test" of watching the players play.

Nevertheless, I sensed some remorse among some Embiid voters like Bill Simmons because Jokic has looked like the actual best player in the league during the playoffs. Of course, the MVP is a regular-season award and isn't about the "best player," but I think the remorse is a reflection that their vote was based on subjective, emotional factors. 

If you voted for Embiid because "if Michael Jordan never won three MVPs in a row, I'm not going to let Jokic win three in a row" then it's time to re-think how you vote. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and thanks you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com