NFL MVP and Hart Trophy Chases

 Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I look for, or chase, the best objective criteria in determining greatness without personal bias.

Today's Topic: NFL MVP and Hart Trophy Chases

Photo credit: Santeri Viinamäki

NFL MVP Chase

My MVP Chase goes through the Super Bowl. Three of the top four players in the chase at the end of the regular season are still alive in the playoffs.

In review, to earn an MVP Point:

• A quarterback must have a 100.0+ passer rating in a win or tie.

• A back or receiver must have 100+ yards from scrimmage in a win or tie. (Multiple players on the same team can earn an MVP point in the same game.)

Here are the current standings:

11 MVP Points

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

10 MVP Points

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

9 MVP Points

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings - Eliminated

8 MVP Points

None

7 MVP Points

Josh Allen, QB, Bills - Eliminated

Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills - Eliminated

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants - Eliminated

Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks - Eliminated 

Also:

• 7 players have six MVP points

• 9 have five MVP points

• 9 have four

• 14 have three

• 29 have two

• 65 have one

Hart Trophy Chase

Every sport is different but one foundational principle is behind the MVP Chase in each: contributions to victories. The "Most Valuable" player isn't necessarily the best player, but the one who made significant contributions to the most victories.

My Hart Trophy Chase considers scoring a point in a win or a "tie" (overtime loss) as well as  the relative Corsi statistic ("CF% rel" at HockeyReference.com), which is "similar to the traditional +/- stat, but instead of goals it is based on shots."  This statistic reveals how generally more efficient a team is when the player is on the ice, not counting how well or poorly the goalies play.

This is why Connor McDavid, the game's best player and current scoring leader, isn't in the top five in my Hart Trophy Chase. His Oilers have the 12th-best record in the NHL.

The five I have ahead of him are on teams that have won more games. They are also ahead in CF%rel.

The Hart Trophy ballot provides for five names, ranked in order of preference. Here are my top ten in order of preference as of January 24, 2023:

1. David Pastrnak, Bruins (37-5-4)

2. Jason Robertson, Stars (28-13-4)

3. Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs (29-11-8) 

4. Jack Hughes, Devils (30-12-4) 

5. Nikita Kucherov, Lightning (29-15-1) 

6. Connor McDavid, Oilers (27-18-3) 

7. Joe Pavelski, Stars (28-13-4) 

8. William Nylander, Maple Leafs (29-11-8)

9. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers (27-18-3)

10. Zach Hyman, Oilers (27-18-3)  

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe), JL Cells (subscribe), Daily Miracles (subscribe), and The Daily Bible Chapter (subscribe). Thanks for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.