NFL MVP Chase Tightens

 Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I look for, or chase, the best objective criteria in determining greatness without personal bias.

Today's topic: NFL MVP Chase Entering Week 16

Photo credit: Torsten Bolten

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Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts saw his lead in the NFL MVP Chase diminish this week. Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson are now right behind. 

 

As a reminder, to win a point in the MVP Chase,

• A quarterback must have a 100.0+ passer rating in a win or tie.

• A back or receiver must have 100+ yards from scrimmage in a win or tie.

(Multiple players on the same team can earn an MVP point in the same game.)

Here are the leaders so after Week 15:

9 MVP Points

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (13-1)

8 MVP Points

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (10-4)

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings (11-3)

7 MVP Points

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (11-3)

6 MVP Points

Josh Allen, QB, Bills (11-3)

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (6-8)

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (6-8)

Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks (7-7)

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (8-6)

(Seven players have 5 MVP points, ten have 4, 13 have 3, 25 have 2, and 58 have 1.)

Hurts is likely to miss one game or more due to a shoulder injury, which paves the way for others to catch him. An intriguing prospect is if the top four leaders, all assured of playoff spots, finish the season with pedestrian play while the Raiders and Jaguars run the table, Josh Jacobs and Trevor Lawrence could be serious MVP candidates.

That said, Lawrence wouldn't stand a chance even if he ties Hurts and finishes with nine MVP points. The Jaguars are 3-6 in one-possession games, and Lawrence's passer rating was under 85 (and often way below that) in five of the losses.  Although he's been playing well of late, he's also arguably one of the reasons the Jags have a losing record.

Jacobs is a different story. He's leading the league in yards from scrimmage by almost 200 yards. The team is 6-3 when he rushes 20 times or more and 0-5 when he doesn't. Four of those losses were one-possession games. If Jacobs carries the Raiders to three final wins and a playoff spot, he could be a strong candidate.

It's a long shot, but congratulations to him (and to Lawrence) to be among the leaders while their teams have losing records.

James Leroy Wilson writes Daily Miracles (subscribe), The Daily Bible Chapter (subscribe), JL Cells (subscribe), and The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thanks for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com