Playoff Committee Rankings reaction

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Today's Topic: Playoff Selection Committee Top 25 reaction

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After the College Football Playoff Rankings came out on November 1, I wondered three things:

1. Am I overestimating some schools, particularly in the Big Ten?

2. Should Alabama really be ranked ahead of undefeated TCU, as the Playoff Ranking has it?

3. Should 3-loss Texas be ranked in the Top 25?

The fact is, Ohio State and Michigan have been the most dominant teams all year. Ohio State has had no close calls, and Michigan just one. But they also had an "advantage" in my ranking: they played full FBS schedules, whereas almost 90% of FBS teams play an FCS opponent. I don't believe in counting FCS games, so Ohio State, Michigan, and a few other schools benefitted from playing one more FBS team.

To equalize the matter, I've thrown out the "easiest" victories among teams that played a full FBS schedule. No more credit in beating Arkansas State and UConn, just as other schools never did get credit (in my rankings) for playing FCS schools like Samford and Tarleton.

I also considered how the Selection Committee might have been evaluating teams to put the Tide ahead of the Horned Frogs and to put Texas in the ranking. While "the best" teams and "most deserving" teams are usually judged by dominance over the schedule and strength of schedule, there are multiple ways of doing that.

My most recent ranking leaned on a formula to reward the "most deserving" teams, but I suspect that the Committee is emphasizing the "best" teams. That emphasizes victory margins a little bit more.

So I've redone my ranking to better understand the Committee's intentions while retaining an objective formula. Unlike the last one, I've taken all 3-loss teams into consideration and, as stated above, threw out the "easiest" FBS wins of teams that played an all-FBS schedule.

This is what I came up with.

1. Georgia 8-0

2. Ohio State 8-0

3. Clemson 8-0

4. Tennessee 8-0

5. Alabama 7-1

6.  TCU 8-0

7. Michigan 8-0 

8. UCLA 7-1

9. Illinois 7-1

10. Oregon 7-1 

11. Ole Miss 7-1

12. Utah 6-2

13. USC 7-1

14. Kansas State 6-2

15. Mississippi St  5-3

16. LSU 6-2

17. Penn State 6-2

18. Oregon State 6-2

19. Texas 5-3

20. Syracuse 6-2

21. Wake Forest 6-2

22. North Carolina 7-1

23. Tulane 7-1

24. Troy 6-2

25. Liberty 7-1

Ironically, the same principle that put Texas in this ranking put another 5-3 team, Mississippi State, even higher.

I continue to tweak, and this time I found Tennessee in a top-4 spot; my last ranking felt wrong with them outside of it. 

What I haven't done is execute the full set of measurements that I think are important in determining a true ranking that doesn't take reputation or other biases into account, and is based solely on this year's achievements.

I want to get better at this and I want the committee to get better.

James Leroy Wilson writes Daily Miracles (subscribe), The Daily Bible Chapter (subscribe), JL Cells (subscribe), and The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thanks for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

Photo credit: Torsten Bolten