Championship Game picks and fixing overtime

 In the NFL’s divisional playoff round, I was 2-2 in picking winners but 3-1 against the Vegas point spread.

Here are my AFC and NFC Championship Game picks. I made them before I looked at the Vegas line as reported by CBS Sports on Thursday morning, January 27.

Bengals @ Chiefs: Chiefs by 2. LINE:Chiefs -7 (i.e., Chiefs are favored by 7)

49ers @ Rams: 49ers by 1. LINE: Rams -3.5 

I don't break down games to determine why I pick the teams I pick. I'll just say I base them on recent trends, using the same criteria for all teams, and let the numbers land where they land. The goal is always to get more games right than wrong against the Vegas spread.

Fixing Overtime

After the Chiefs beat the Bills in a thrilling contest last week, in which the Bills were eliminated from the playoffs without getting a chance to possess the ball in overtime, we’ve heard louder calls to change the overtime rules.

The NFL has made some progress on the overtime front. "Sudden death" overtime, which existed for decades (although there was no regular-season overtime before the 1970s) meant that if the receiving team kicked a field goal on their first possession, they win the game. Now, at least both sides get a chance at the ball if the receiving team kicks a field goal. But, they win if they scored a touchdown. The opposing team’s offense doesn’t get a chance.

While it is fair to blame defenses for allowing touchdowns, I agree with most people that winning the coin toss shouldn't be such an important factor in determining the outcome of the game. Here are a few ideas I've heard. 

One idea, from  the January 23 Colin Cowherd podcast with guest Nick Wright: determine the overtime coin toss at the beginning of the game, so that knowing who will receive the overtime kickoff will help influence late-game strategy.

I'd suggest one extra step: the winner of the opening coin toss has three options, choose to kick or receive the opening,second half, or overtime kickoff (knowing full well that the game probably won't even go to overtime). The loser of the coin toss gets the second pick of those options, and the winner gets the third pick. 

A second idea, heard on the same podcast, is that each team puts in a "silent bid" on where they'd like the ball spotted if they got the first possession in overtime. The team that bids the longest distance gets the ball.

A third came from Ron Earhart, coach of the Patriots in the early 1980s, and was discussed on  the January 24 Bill Simmons podcast with guest Cousin Sal. If the first team with the ball in overtime scores, the other team gets the ball and must score the same number of points in the same number of plays or less. They didn't discuss the details, but I'm guessing that if the second team is able to tie the score, the game would just go to sudden death after that. Or maybe the system is repeated.

I believe it was the same podcast where I learned of a fourth idea that the Ravens, supported by current Patriots coach Bill Belichick, proposed: "spot and choose." As Mike Florio describes it:

If the one team picks, for example, the offense’s own 20 yard line, the opponent would then choose whether to play offense from their own 20 or to play defense, with the other team having the ball on its own 20. This would greatly minimize the impact of the coin toss; under this proposal, the coin toss would be used only to give the team that wins the toss the right to pick the spot of the ball (along with the end zone to be defended) or to choose offense or defense. 

The game would either be sudden-death with a ten-minute time limit, or there would be a 7:30 time limit with no sudden death. If the score is still even at the end of the time limit, a regular-season game would end in a tie.

A fifth idea came from the Chiefs in 2019. To summarize, both teams get to have the ball at least once. Plus, the winner of the initial coin toss also chooses to kick or receive in overtime.

Many of these ideas sound fun and interesting. Here's what I would do.

1. Abolish overtime in regular-season games. There are so many ways to score, that if the teams remain tied at the end of 60 minutes, they have no one but themselves to blame. This would make those sixty minutes more interesting, because the teams would be playing without the "safety net" of sending the game into overtime. Also, this promotes the health and safety of the players, and keeps them better-rested during the long 17-game season.

2. For the playoffs, determine the overtime coin toss at the beginning of the game in the way I suggested above. Then, borrowing from the Ravens/Belichick proposal, play a 7:30 period (that is, half a quarter). If it's still tied after 7:30, continue playing for another 7:30. If it's again tied after two 7:30 periods, go to sudden-death with "spot and choose" described above.

Is it possible that an overtime period can go on with one team consuming all the 7:30 and kicking a field goal at the end, with the other team having no opportunity to possess the ball? Yes, but being unable to stop a drive that goes on that long is a function of a team being physically beaten - they’d deserve to lose - and not a function of being unlucky with the coin toss.

I think this system respects the role of the clock in the game of football (up until the game becomes impossibly long). It also engages all aspects of the game, unlike college rules where both the clock and special teams are ignored.

It gives both teams a fair chance to win in overtime, and will make regular-season games, and regular-season standings, more interesting.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase, Daily Miracles, The Daily Bible Chapter, and JL Cells. Thanks for your subscriptions and support!

(Photo credit: Torsten Bolten)