The champion that missed the playoffs; plus the NFL MVP Chase update.

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

In this issue:

• College football's lineal champion

• NFL MVP Chase

Last week, I wrote that Alabama didn't deserve to be in the College Football Playoff because of its terrible loss to Florida State. That wasn't a subjective opinion; it was how my Playoff Chase formula operates. (Whether the formula works may itself be a subjective opinion, but it removes bias.) Losing by two possessions to a seven-loss team in the first game of the season kicked them too far down in the standings, and they didn't recover.

That's not to say Alabama isn't one of the "best" twelve teams; they showed they were by beating Oklahoma in the first round of the playoffs. But based on the rules in place, two non-major conference champions played their way into the playoffs, and Alabama didn't. Notre Dame deserved the spot instead. 

On an unrelated matter, I was wondering who the current lineal champion is. The "lineal champion" is the team that beat the team that beat the team that beat the team... all the way back to the team that won the first game ever played, which was Rutgers over Princeton in 1869. The last time I published about it was October 8, when Miami (FL) was the champion. I know that Louisville beat Miami later on, but I lost the thread. 

It turns out that Louisville lost to California, which lost to Stanford, which lost to . . .

Notre Dame. That was the last game of the regular season.

Because Notre Dame wasn't invited to the playoffs and declined all other bowl games, they will be the title holder entering the first week of next season and will begin their "title defense" then.

The lineal championship ought to be part of college football. Notable "championship" games this year included South Florida's win over Florida, which was the beginning of the end for Gators head coach Billy Napier. The annual Cal-Stanford matchup is called the Big Game, with the Stanford Axe its trophy. It was also the lineal championship game this year. And of course, Notre Dame beating Stanford, only to be snubbed by the Selection Committee, means the lineal champion will not be the National Champion. 

Perhaps next season I will track Notre Dame's title defense and the path of the championship more closely.

NFL MVP Chase

This season, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who missed eight games due to injury, is 6-1 as a starter and 15th in the MVP Chase. His backup, Mac Jones, went 5-3 and is 31st in the MVP Chase. That's higher than qb Sam Darnold, whose Seahawks have the NFC's #1 seed.

Two seasons ago, using different measurements than I use today, Purdy and teammate Christian McCaffrey tied for the MVP Chase crown. This season, the "49ers Quarterback" would be in the MVP Chase lead, as both Purdy and Jones played well in nearly all their victories.

And it suggests that the running back McCaffrey, sitting at third in the MVP Chase, is the true difference-maker on that squad, even though the quarterback is the most important position. Likewise, receiverJaxon-Smith Njigba is the most valuable ball-handling player on the Seahawks ' offense, as he comes up with big games in nearly all their victories, while Darnold rarely does.

This is not to say that MVP Chase leader James Cook is more important than his teammate Josh Allen. Allen is fifth and still has a chance to win the MVP Chase himself. It does say that Cook had more big games in the Bills' victories than Allen has.

As it stands, anyone in the top six in the MVP Chase has a chance to win it, and Dak Prescott has a chance to tie Cook as the winner if nobody ranked ahead of him has any big games in victories.

Patriots qb Drake Maye, the second-year sensation, is at 11th and won't win the MVP Chase. As mentioned previously here, sacks and fumbles hurt him in otherwise statistically brilliant games.

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

An avalanche of talent

Photo credit: Santeri Viinamäki

Originally published at The MVP Chase.

In This Issue: NBA and NHL MVP Chase updates.

NBA MVP CHASE

There is a two-man race for the NBA MVP between the best player on the best team, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander of the Thunder, and the game’s best player, Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. They were also last year’s MVP and runner-up. I say that Jokic’s the best player because he’s led the league in most “advanced” stats for most of the decade. He’s still ahead this year, although SGA isn’t far behind.

Barring injury to either, no one else stands much of a chance to win this MVP Chase or the official NBA MVP Award. However, there is a race for the third, fourth, and fifth spots on the NBA MVP ballot. And to make the ballot is an honor in and of itself.

The NBA MVP Chase is based on the number of victories in which a player’s Game Score and plus/minus totaled 30 or more. For games played through December 19, 2025, although team records are through December 20. Data collected from Stathead.com.

20 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (25-3)

18 Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (20-7)

15 Jalen Brunson, Knicks (19-8)

12 Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers (15-14)

11 Luka Doncic, Lakers (19-8)

10 Jaylen Brown, Celtics (17-11)

9 Austin Reaves, Lakers (19-8)

8 Several players

NHL MVP Chase

In the NHL, wins count as 2 points, and overtime losses count as a tie: 1 point. Therefore, players who performed well in an overtime loss receive credit for the NHL MVP (i.e., Hart Trophy) Chase because their efforts help their team in the standings.

As of this writing, the Avalanche have lost just two games in regulation all season, with seven overtime losses. Center Nathan MacKinnon is tied for first in the NHL in points has has a +/- of 43. Martin Necas, his teammate, is second at 33. In fact, the Avalanche are so dominant that the top five leaders in +/- are on that team, and their goalie is tied for second behind MacKinnon in the MVP Chase.

The NHL MVP Chase is based on the number of victories and overtime losses in which a player’s points and plus/minus equals three or more, or a goalie has allowed two goals or fewer. Data collected from Stathead.com, and player positions (e.g., why does it say F instead of C for that guy but not that other guy?) come from HockeyReference.com.

For games played through December 20, 2025:

18 Nathan MacKinnon (C), Avalanche

15 Scott Wedgewood (G), Avalanche

15 Logan Thompson (G) Stars

13 Connor McDavid (C), Oilers

13 Cale Makar (D), Avalanche

13 Macklin Celebrini (F), Sharks

12 Artturi Lehkonen (LW), Avalanche

11 Leon Draisaitl (F), Oilers

11 Jason Robertson (LW), Stars

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Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

CFB Playoff Selection reaction and NFL MVP Chase Update

Image: Torsten Bolten

In this Issue:

• College Football Playoff Selection reaction

• NFL MVP Chase update

College Football Playoff Selection reaction

I was unable to produce the MVP Chase last week, and am overdue to post my thoughts about the College Football Playoff.

Eleven of the twelve teams I would have selected for the College Football Playoff were, in fact, selected. I had Notre Dame getting in, but Alabama was selected.

My process was data-driven: strength of victories, strength of losses, and margin of losses. Its purpose was to select who deserved to make the playoffs based on on-field results.

At the end of 2023, one-loss Alabama was selected over undefeated Florida State in that season's four-team playoff, allegedly because Florida State wasn't that good and wouldn't have been competitive with their starting quarterback injured. Last year, Florida State was terrible (2-10), but beat Alabama in this season's opener 31-17. The Seminoles, however, finished just 5-7. It was a terrible loss for Alabama, and had the Tide won that game but lost to a better opponent later in the season, I likely would have had the Tide in the playoffs. Or, if Florida State had been a better team that Alabama only narrowly lost to, Alabama might still have gotten in.

That this was an opening-game loss isn't an excuse. And I find it hard to imagine that a school with any other name would get away with losing by double digits to the 13th-best team in the ACC. I find it ironic that two years ago, undefeated Florida State supposedly sucked, yet this year, when Florida State really did suck, Alabama was rewarded for only losing to them by two touchdowns.  

As it is, however, the Committee could have done worse. 11 out of 12 isn't bad.

NFL MVP Chase 

Two weeks' worth of games have passed sincemy last update. Matthew Stafford, who has been in the nationwide MVP discussion for most of the year, has finally become a strong contender in the MVP Chase as well. 

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

How important is the defensive line? Plus, an MVP Chase update

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

In this issue:

• MVP Chase update after Week 13

• How important is the defensive line?

The MVP Chase rewards strong individual performances in victories. I don't care who has the most total yards, or most 100-yard games, or the most passing yards or touchdowns. Put those guys in the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams. The MVP Chase focuses on the number of strong individual performances that contributed to actual wins.

That said, I did take a look at how the Top Ten in the MVP Chase are doing in the traditional stats.

1. Cook is second in rushing and fourth in yards from scrimmage.

2. McCaffrey is first in total yards from scrimmage.

3. Prescott is first in completions and second in both yards and touchdowns, and first in QBR.

4. Taylor is first in rushing and third in yards from scrimmage.

5. Smith-Njigba is first in receiving yards and seventh in yards from scrimmage.

6. Jahmyr Gibbs is fourth in rushing and fifth in yards from scrimmage.

7. Stafford is first in touchdown passes and a close second in passer rating.

8. Daniel Jones is fifth in passing yards and is falling in the MVP Chase after leading it for much of the season.

9. Josh Allen ranks around seventh to eleventh in several categories.

10. Drake Maye has finally entered my top ten. He's first in passing yards and passer rating and fourth in QBR. As mentioned in my last update, his greater propensity to get sacked compared to other top quarterbacks has hurt his ranking; he's given up 40 sacks, while Prescott and Stafford have each given up 17.

One might say the sacks aren't all his fault (I'm not saying they are), that Maye should be higher on any MVP list, and that my MVP Chase formula doesn't work. We have five more weeks to find out.

How important is the defensive line?

I can't cite the podcast, podcast episode, or even the speaker with certainty, but I believe I heard Bill Barnwell suggest that, after the quarterback, the defensive line may be the most significant factor in winning the Super Bowl.

I decided to check that out with a brief survey. In the 55 seasons of the merged NFL, I selected 14 teams that won the Super Bowl in which the quarterback was a question mark at the time. Sometimes he was a backup pressed into service, sometimes he just hadn't consistently demonstrated elite ability (even if he proved it later in his career), and sometimes (Unitas, Peyton Manning), their bodies were broken down.  

To gauge how good these Super Bowl-winning defensive lines were, I looked at their rankings in sacks and in average yards allowed per run. (Linebackers also play a significant role in these stats, but they need the defensive line to dominate the line of scrimmage.)

The Combined Ranking (CR) mentioned below adds the two rankings; the "perfect" ranking number would be 2 (1st in sacks plus 1st against the run). 

2017 Eagles. QB Nick Foles. The defensive line ranked 15th in sacks and 6th in yards per rush. CR: 21

2015 Broncos. QB Peyton Manning. The Bronco defense ranked 1st in sacks and 1st in yards per rush. CR: 1

 

2012 Ravens. QB Joe Flacco. The Ravens were 15th in sacks and 7th in yards per rush. CR: 22

2007 Giants. QB Eli Manning. The Giants were first in sacks and fourth in yards per rush. CR: 5

2002 Buccaneers. QB Brad Johnson. The Bucs were sixth in sacks and third in yards per rush. CR: 9

2000 Ravens. QB Trent Dilfer. This legendary defense was (surprisingly) just 22nd in sacks but first against the run. CR: 23

1991 Redskins. QB Mark Rypien. The defense was fourth in sacks and 11th against the run. CR: 15

1990 Giants. QB Jeff Hostetler. The Giants were only 24th in sacks (28 teams) and seventh against the run. CR: 31

1987 Redskins. QB Doug Williams. The team was fourth in sacks and tenth against the run. CR: 14

1986 Giants. QB Phil Simms. Giants were fourth in sacks and fifth against the run. CR: 9

1985 Bears. QB Jim McMahon. The legendary '85 Bears were third in sacks and sixth against the run. CR: 9

1980 Raiders. QB Jim Plunkett. The defense was third in sacks and first against the run. CR: 4

1974 Steelers. QB Terry Bradshaw. The defense was first in sacks and second against the run. CR: 3

1970 Colts. QB Johnny Unitas. The team was fifth in sacks and tenth against the run. CR: 15

Ten teams finished in the Top 6 in sacks. All teams finished in the Top 11 against the run.

I will likely consider these stats, in addition to QB stats, when making Super Bowl predictions as the playoffs start. Even if I doubt the quarterback, I might favor a team that is strong at rushing the passer and stopping the run. 

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.