Why Jahmyr Gibbs is the NFL MVP

 

After hanging around near the top of the list for most of the season, Jahmyr Gibbs grabbed the top spot in the MVP Chase when it mattered most: the final game of the season.

You might think I'm nuts, but if I got to vote for the NFL MVP, he'd be first on my ballot, followed by the next four on the final top 20 list because that's what I said I would do:

Here's my reasoning. My baseline for a player to earn points for MVP each week was:

• For his team to win the game.

• To gain 90+ yards from scrimmage or earn a passer rating of 90+, although the player could have finished slightly below these marks if they had scored touchdowns.

For backs and receivers, the standard was to gain enough yards which, if repeated every game, would make one a Pro Bowler or All-Pro. That standard is 90 yards from scrimmage. I set a much lower standard for a quarterback; 90.0 was a little below average for NFL passer ratings. But the quarterback is a difficult position, and as long as the passer rating wasn't too bad, I thought a quarterback's win should count in his MVP candidacy. The more yards or better passer rating the player had, however, the better his MVP score for the week.

Here's a review of last week's top eight candidates to either win the Chase or finish in the top five. They all finished in the top eight, although in a different order.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs: Gained 90+ yards or more in 11 of 15 Lions victories and scored touchdowns in all four games in which he didn't. 73 yards gained was his lowest in a victory.

2. Derrick Henry: Gained 90+ yards in 10 of 12 Ravens victories and scored a TD in another. Worst game (in a win): 67 yards, 0 TDs.

3. Saquon Barkley: Gained 90+ yards in 10 of 14 Eagles victories. No TDs in the three other games he played. Worst game: 54 yards; did not play in one.

4. Lamar Jackson: Had a passer rating of 90 in all 12 Ravens victories. His lowest rating was 92.8 and his next lowest was 114.7.

5. Jared Goff: Passer rating of 90 in 12 of 15 Lions victories. Worst rating: 59.7.

6. Sam Darnold: Had a passer rating of 90 (actually 107) in 11 of 14 Vikings victories; below 75 in the three others including a 48.2 game.

7. Josh Jacobs: Had 90+ yards in ten of 11 Packers victories. Worst game: 48 yards.

8. Josh Allen: Passer rating of 90+ in ten of 13 Bills victories and scored a touchdown in two others. Worst rating (without scoring a touchdown): 67.3.

Henry and Barkley both had several monster games, helping their candidacies. If I hadn't committed to making the MVP Chase top 5 the same as the actual ballot top 5, I would put Lamar Jackson in the #2 spot, because, like Gibbs, he was a major contributor to every single victory his team had. I'll re-adjust my rules next year.

Advocates for Jackson winning MVP could say that it isn't his fault the Ravens didn't win more games. Fine, but he's not the reason they won more games either, or they would have. Gibbs had big games in every victory, and the Lions co-led the NFL in victories.

Jaymyr Gibbs is my MVP. Nevertheless, I would choose Barkley and Henry as my All-Pro running backs ahead of him. After all, the MVP isn't about who had the best season personally, it's about who made the most major contributions to team victories. 

You could assert that the MVP award should also consider player performances in losses.

No.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

The Rushing Record, Week 18 MVP Chase, and Pro Bowl

 

Saquon Barkley is 100 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, set in a 16-game season 40 years ago. Because the Eagles have to play in the first week of the playoffs, however, Barkley is going to sit out the last game of the season.

It's just as well. Unless a running back shatters records, with yards-per-game similar to O.J. Simpson's 2003 yards in a 14-game regular season, records don't matter much. In Barkley's case, the irony is that he dropped a pass near the end of a Week 3 game that led to an Eagles loss, preventing the Eagles from contending for the #1 seed in Week 18. 

If the Eagles had something to play for, Barkley would be playing and might have gotten the record. The decision to throw the pass that Barkley dropped reflected poor clock management by head coach Nick Sirianni because a running play was a safer decision for running down the clock in that situation; while Barkley shouldn't have dropped the pass, the likelihood of dropping a pass is greater than Barkley fumbling on a running play. That's just the nature of the game.

Nevertheless, Barkley had a great year, and by sitting, his status as the MVP Chase leader is in jeopardy. The way the MVP Chase formula works, four players can pass him this week if their teams win and they have great games (or, in Lamar Jackson's case, a near-perfect game).

Eight players can finish in the top five in the MVP Chase, and the top five finishers will fill up my hypothetical MVP ballot. But I'm posting the Top 20 in case you're wondering where your favorite player is ranked. 

PRO BOWL

The NFC and AFC Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week. The Pro Bowl isn't about rewarding the winningest players, only the best players, whereas the MVP Chase is about the best players on winning teams. Common sense says there would be a lot of overlap, and I wondered how much. Here's what I found:

Quarterbacks

• The top three MVP Chase NFC quarterbacks in the MVP Chase (#2,6,10) are the NFC Pro Bowl qbs.

• The top three MVP Chase AFC quarterbacks (#5,8,15) are the AFC qbs.

Running Backs

• The top three NFC running backs (#1,3,7) are the Pro Bowl rbs.

• Three of the top four AFC running backs (#4, #23 Joe Mixon, Texans, #30 Jonathan Taylor, Colts) are in the Pro Bowl. #11 James Cook is left out.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson (#9) is the only WR in the Top 20, and he made the NFC roster. While there is greater variance than with quarterbacks and running backs on the overall MVP Chase list, three of the four Pro Bowl receivers in each conference play for teams in playoff contention.

 (James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

25 Greatest Athletes of the Century

 

Usain Bolt. Photo credit: Puma SE

We all know that, technically, the 21st century (and third millennium) started in 2001, not 2000. But in 1999 ESPN created a list of "Top North American Athletes of the Century." A lot can change in the culture over the next 75 years, but I suspect that "best of the century" lists will likely come out in 2099, not 2100.

Thus, we can treat 2000-2024 as one-quarter of the way to the 2099 list. Now is a good time to reflect on the strongest candidates from this period to make the 2099 "Greatest Athletes" top 100 list.

Future list-makers will have a better sense of who to choose and how to rank than did ESPN's 1999 selectors, because, unlike the early-mid (and even later) 1900s, virtually every meaningful sporting event since 2000 is available on video. Furthermore, advanced analytics can assess the impressiveness of athletic achievements more clearly, with less reliance on myth-making sportswriters and broadcasters.

Below I submit the names, in alphabetical order, of 25 athletes from the last 25 years that should merit consideration for 2099's Top 100 list.

This list isn't exclusively of North American athletes, but they come from sports but it comes from sports that North Americans currently or have traditionally paid attention to. For instance, Messi (Argentina) and Ronaldo (Portugal) are included in this list because international soccer become more popular in the United States. In contrast, soccer's Pele and great foreign-born Olympic athletes weren't included in the 1999 ESPN list. 

Here's the list:

Simone Biles - Gymnastics

Usain Bolt - Track

Barry Bonds - Baseball

Tom Brady - Football

Kobe Bryant - Basketball

Novak Djokovic - Tennis

Aaron Donald - Football

Tim Duncan - Basketball

Roger Federer - Tennis

LeBron James - Basketball

Jimmie Johnson - NASCAR

Jon Jones - UFC

Katie Ledecky - Swimming

Peyton Manning - Football

Patrick Mahomes, Football

Floyd Mayweather - Boxing

Lionel Messi - Soccer

Rafael Nadal - Tennis

Alexander Ovechkin - Hockey

Michael Phelps - Swimming

Albert Pujols - Baseball

Cristiano Ronaldo - Soccer

Diana Taurasi - Basketball

Serena Williams - Tennis 

Tiger Woods - Golf

If you believe I missed an obvious choice, please let me know and then select a name that should be taken off the list. 

Candidates who seem on course to be added to the list (to make it 30 names) over the next five years:

Nikola Jokic, Basketball

Shohei Ohtani, Baseball

Connor McDavid, Hockey

Mike Trout, Baseball

A'ja Wilson, Basketball

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

Mark Gastineau and Hall of Fame criteria

I recently watched 30 For 30's "The New York Sack Exchange." Some follow-up reading has made me wonder if Mark Gastineau is worthy of the Hall of Fame.

I recall hearing radio host Derrick Pearson mention two things to consider for the Hall of Fame:

1. Can the history of football be told without mentioning him?

2. Can the story of his position be told without mentioning him?

On a separate occasion, I heard Mike Lombardi, a football executive and media personality, mention a third thing to consider: 

3. Did opposing coaches have sleepless nights when preparing for him?

I heard Pearson and Lombardi say these things in the context of wide receivers who had been very productive on very good teams for many years. I will respectfully not name them, but Pearson and Lombardi didn't think they belonged to the Hall of Fame. And now I have those same questions whenever I think of other potential Hall of Fame candidacies.  

I was a child and teenager when Gastineu played and watched him only a handful of times each year. I'm not in a position to evaluate how good he was. Critics say he was one-dimensional and played selfishly, often being out of position on running plays as he focused on rushing the quarterback.

Nevertheless,I think we know the answers to these questions.

1. Can we tell the story of the NFL without Gastineau, as famous as anyone in the league in the early-to-mid 1980s? It seems like the NFL started counting the sack as an official statistic only because he and teammate Joe Klecko had so many of them.

2. Can we tell the story of the defensive end, or edge rusher, without discussing Gastineau?

3. Did opposing coaches have sleepless nights when preparing for him?

I think Gastineau checks Pearson's and Lombardi's boxes. Perhaps, however, there are other boxes to qualify for the Hall of Fame that he doesn't check: in addition to the aforementioned criticisms of his play, his run of dominance lasted only five seasons. 

Nevertheless, I find the criteria from Pearson and Lombardi quite helpful. They may explain why Ken Stabler is in the Hall of Fame while Ken Anderson, who was better statistically, is not. Stabler, the most accurate deep-ball thrower of his era, probably caused more sleepless nights.

 NFL MVP Chase

The MVP Chase is about making signficiant contributions to victories. Instead of looking at season-ending stats and season-ending win totals, the MVP Chase looks at each game each week so that:

• Playing very well in a victory counts toward earning the MVP.

• Playing just okay or poorly in a victory doesn't count.

• Playing great - even six touchdowns great - in a loss doesn't count. 

There are other awards and All-Pro selections for those who play great even when their teams lose. The MVP should be about who helped their teams win the most often. That's the "value" in "most valuable."

Even after last week's loss, Saquon Barkley is still in the lead. There are eight other players who are technically still alive to overtake him and they are listed here.The final standings of the MVP Chase will determine how I would fill out my official MVP ballot, if I had one. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

The greatest passers of all time

 

The NFL's Passer Rating statistic has always been controversial. Its critics claim it doesn't account for the true efficiency of a team's passing game because it ignores sacks (and yards lost from sacks). It also has curiosities.  For example, a 77.5 completion rate is as good as a 100% completion rate. At The Data Jocks, writer jdashbrock noted, "Two players with vastly different stats – one could even be noticeably better than the other! – can be labelled as both having perfect games by passer rating." 

Nevertheless, Passer Rating has historically been shown to correlate with team success. In 2011 Kerry Byrne reported that Passer Rating differential (a team's offensive passer rating minus its defensive passer rating) is almost as reliable as scoring differential in identifying winners.

I kept track of passer ratings during most of the 2021 season, discovering that the team with the higher passer rating in the game won 79.6 of the time. Teams that won the turnover battle won 79.2% of the time during the same span. I speculated (with the confidence of common sense) that interceptions were the key factor in both stats.

I've wondered how to compare passers from different eras who operated under different league rules and playbook schemes. For instance, the league average passer rating in 1974 was 64.2; in 2024 it's 91.9. The best of the best from decades ago had far worse passer ratings than they do now simply because it was more difficult to throw the ball. Is there a way to compare them? 

There is. Last week I discovered the Passer Rating Index. In short, in any era, the average passer rating is adjusted to 100, and one standard deviation above average is 115. A Passer Rating Index of 115 in a given year typically meant that the passer was among the top five or six in Passer Rating in that season. Above 100 might be slightly above average, good, or very good; above 115 is elite. 

Using Stathead, I looked at all players that had at least one season with a Passer Rating Index (PRI) of 115 since the NFL's inception. 26 players had a PRI of 115+ in five seasons or more. They are listed in descending order with the number of seasons beside the name. Where the number of seasons is the same, the players are listed alphabetically.

GREATEST PASSERS OF ALL TIME

Drew Brees 12

Peyton Manning 12

Fran Tarkenton 10

Tom Brady 9

Joe Montana 9

Aaron Rodgers 9

Len Dawson 8

Brett Favre 8

Johnny Unitas 8

Russell Wilson 8

Steve Young 8

Dan Fouts 7

Otto Graham 7

Bob Griese 7

Dan Marino 7

Y.A. Tittle 7

Ken Anderson 6 

Sonny Jurgensen 6

Philip Rivers 6

Ben Roethlisberger 6

Bart Starr 6

Roger Staubach 6

Warren Moon 5

Craig Morton 5

Carson Palmer 5

Tony Romo 5

Several quarterbacks have had a PRI of 115+ four times, from Ken Stabler to Boomer Esiason to Kirk Cousins. Earl Morrall reached the mark for four different teams. Patrick Mahomes has reached 115 four times so far but won't in the 2024 season. That even Mahomes has reached it in "only" half the seasons he's played so far speaks to how difficult it is to attain a PRI of 115.

This "Greatest Passers" list isn't a "Greatest Quarterbacks" list. Other factors, including Pro Bowl selections and playoff success, would contribute to a greatest quarterbacks list.

For instance, John Elway had a PRI of 115 or more "only" three times in his career, as did Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman. They have a combined eighteen Pro Bowl selections and nine Super Bowl wins, so being great in Passer Rating throughout one's career isn't necessary to be considered a great quarterback.

That said, almost all of the greatest quarterbacks are on the above list of greatest passers.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.