NFL MVP Chase and College Football Playoff Chase Updates 11/19/24

IN THIS ISSUE:

• NFL Playoff Chase

• College Football Playoff Chase

NFL MVP CHASE

(Data compiled from Stathead.)

I have not checked who leads the NFL in rushing, receiving, or in any passing statistic. I also haven't looked up any player's stats in losses. The NFL MVP Chase is only about players who made major contributions to team victories, and Saquon Barkley snatched the lead in the MVP Chase with another great game for the Eagles.

For those wondering, Joe Burrow is 32nd and Patrick Mahomes is 36th. Among the rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round, Jayden Daniels is 16th (as shown above), Bo Nix is 38th, Caleb Williams is 45th, Drake Maye has yet to have a game that warrants inclusion on the list. Michael Penix has seen limited action as a backup to Kirk Cousins (10th on the list). J.J. McCarthy is out for the year due to injury.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

I have ranked all teams with eight wins or more in the following categories

• Wins

• Strength of Wins (SW):  how good, cumulatively, were the teams you beat

• Strength of Losses (SL): how good, cumulatively, were the teams you lost to

• Point differential in losses (L Pts): how many points a team is away from being undefeated

Most often, teams are tied with other teams in a particular ranking. (E.g. many teams are tied for 12th in wins because they all have eight wins.) The Total on the far right column is the sum of their rankings in the four categories, and teams are ranked in that order.

 

The point differential in losses can make a huge difference. For instance, if, this Saturday, Ohio State loses to Indiana by twelve, hardly a blowout, the Buckeyes could fall to where Alabama is in that ranking, as Alabama's two losses are by a combined 12 points. Losing by a blowout margin could prevent a team from reaching the 12-team playoff, and deservedly so. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

College Football Playoff Chase November 15, 2024

College Football Playoff Chase

I have shifted my process for the College Football Playoff Chase. I am using the same criteria, but will no longer try to crunch them into a single number. Instead, I separated the criteria into five separate rankings, four of which really matter (shown here), and one tie-breaker ranking (to be explained at the end).

The higher a team is ranked in each category, the higher their overall ranking. Entering Week 12, I assembled the 34 teams with seven or more wins and ranked them in these categories.

1. Wins: There are two 10-win teams, which lead the nation. They are both ranked "1" in the "Wins" column below. The three teams with nine wins are all tied with a "3" ranking. Twelve teams have eight wins and are tied with a "6." Seventeen teams have seven wins and are ranked "18" in wins.

2. Strength of Wins (SW below): Ranking teams by the combined number of wins of the teams it has beaten. For instance, The ten teams Oregon has beaten have combined to win 44 FBS games, leading the nation. Remarkably, Alabama (16th overall)  is second in this ranking. Despite beating just seven teams so far, those teams have combined to win 43 FBS games. (Wins against FCS teams count, but the wins by FCS teams, against FCS competition, don't count). 

3. Strength of Losses (SL below): Ranking teams by the combined losses of the teams it was beaten by. For example, The two teams Alabama has lost to have themselves combined for five losses, which is 19th-best. The ranking has seven at "1," the four undefeated teams (Oregon, Indiana, BYU, Army), who've lost to nobody, and three teams: Boise State, Ohio State, and SMU, whose only losses are to one of these undefeated teams. 

4. Points Differential in Losses (L Pts below): The more badly a team's been beaten - the more points away they are from going undefeated - the weaker the case can make that they deserve to compete with the best of the best in the playoffs.

Three of the criteria favor undefeated teams, making it virtually impossible for an undefeated team to be out of the playoff picture. And that's how it should be. Strength of Wins, however, will play a major factor in seeding; undefeated Army, for instance, stands at seventh instead of in the top four. 

This is not a ranking of the best teams. For instance, it does not mean I would bet on Army against Notre Dame. But it is a snapshot, entering Week 12, of where teams are positioned for the twelve-team playoff. By the end of November 30th, all will have played twelve games, and the conference championship games will be played the following weekend. A lot can change, but I do not see myself tinkering with these categories. I think this system will provide for the fairest playoffs. 

Regarding the unlisted fifth category: Where teams would be tied in their cumulative rankings (#14-15, #24-25), I consider how often a team has won by nine or more points. That is, how many victories were non-controversial because victory and defeat were decided by more than one play or possession? No one bad call would cause someone to say that the beneficiary should have lost the game. Ole Miss had more "convincing" victories than Washington State, and Iowa State had more convincing victories than Pitt. This fifth category will only really matter when the playoff teams are selected and there is a tie between playoff teams for seeding purposes, or there is a tie between the last team and the last team left out.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

NFL MVP Chase November 14, 2024

 

NFL Playoff Chase

To move up in the MVP Chase, a player must have a very good to great game in a victory. Last week, Lamar Jackson surged to second place behind teammate Derrick Henry. The national media is behaving as if he already is the MVP.

Wear and tear will likely reduce Henry's late-season production. If the Ravens, with its porous defense, can continue to outscore their opponents, Jackson may take the crown. But it is an open race.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

NFL MVP and College Football Playoff Chase 11/7/2024

 

I let myself get a little distracted by other things this week and won't have anything in the way of commentary, but I wanted to get the standing out before the Ravens-Bengals game kicks off.

I hope to have more on football, a baseball wrap-up, and maybe other things next week.

NFL MVP CHASE

COLLEGE FOOTBALL (FBS) PLAYOFF CHASE

Pts

50 Oregon, Big Ten, 8-0

47 Indiana, Big Ten, 9-0

45 Miami FL, ACC, 9-0

44 Ohio St, Big Ten, 7-1

41 Boise State, Mountain West, 7-1

41 Texas, SEC, 7-1

40 SMU, ACC, 7-1

39 BYU, 8-0, Big 12

38 Notre Dame, Independent,  7-1

37 Alabama, SEC, 6-2

36 Army, AAC, 8-0

34 Iowa St, Big 12, 7-1

33 Ole Miss, SEC, 7-2

32 Georgia, SEC, 7-1

29 Tulane, AAC, 7-2

28 Washington St, PAC, - 7-1

28 Pitt, ACC, 7-1

28 Louisville, ACC, 6-3

27 Penn St, Big Ten, 7-1

27 Texas A&M, SEC, 7-2

25 Kansas St, Big 12, 7-2

24 LSU, SEC, 6-2

24 Iowa, Big Ten, 6-3

23 Clemson, ACC, 6-2

23 Louisiana, Sun Belt? 7-1 

22 Colorado, Big 12, 6-2

21 James Madison, Sun Belt, 6-2

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.