Photo credit: Torsten Bolten
Indiana's 56-7 whipping of the previously 5-1 Nebraska Cornhuskers might lead one to assume that the 49-point margin of victory is why the Hoosiers took sole possession of first place in the FBS Playoff Chase.
Well, seventeen of those points are the reason as that is sufficient proof of a whipping. If Indiana won by nine, they'd still be in first place, although just one Playoff Chase point ahead of BYU, Oregon, and Texas. If they had beaten Nebraska by one possession (1-8 points), they'd be tied for the lead with those teams.
The main reason Indiana is on top is that Nebraska has five wins. They are credited to Indiana's account. That, and the fact that Indiana's whipping nearly everybody they play. Their narrowest margin of victory so far is 14 points.
Much of the Playoff Chase formula goes like this: The sum of the victories by the opponents you've beaten, minus the sum of the losses of the opponents you've been beaten by. The margin of victory plays a role, but only up to a point. A blowout is a blowout if it's by 21 or 51, and there's no merit in rolling up the score when, for whatever reason, the other team has been on the ropes all game.
On the other hand, the team on the receiving end of the blowout deserves blame for getting blown out. Nebraska lost by seven possessions and lost six FBS Chase points because of it. They have a lot of ground to make up whereas Alabama, another 5-2 team, is tied for fifth in the Playoff Chase.
The Tide's position might make you shout, "What is wrong with this list?"
Well, here's the deal. The five opponents Alabama has beaten, all from the FBS, have won a combined 23 games. Alabama's two losses were narrow, and the teams they lost to, Vanderbilt and Tenessee, have lost a combined three games.
In contrast, five FBS opponents Georgia has beaten have won 17 games. The six FBS opponents Indiana has beaten have won 19. The six FBS opponents Texas beat have won 21 games, the same as Oregon's. I won't go through every team, but it's clear that Alabama has had the best schedule so far and by far.
The following list of the top 25 in the FBS Playoff Chase has teams listed in order of Playoff Chase points. Where there are ties, they are listed by the best won-loss record and then alphabetically.
32 Indiana 7-0 Big Ten
30 BYU 7-0 Big 12
30 Oregon 7-0 Big Ten
30 Texas 6-1 SEC
28 Iowa St 7-0 Big 12
28 Miami FL 7-0 ACC
28 Alabama 5-2 SEC
27 Notre Dame 6-1 Independent
27 Ohio State 5-1 Big Ten
26 Army 7-0 AAC
25 Navy 6-0 ACC
25 Boise St 5-1 MW
24 Georgia 6-1 SEC
24 Kansas St 6-1 Big 12
23 Penn St 6-0 Big Ten
23 Clemson 6-1 ACC
23 Washington St 6-1 Pac
22 LSU 6-1 SEC
22 SMU 6-1 ACC
22 Texas A&M 6-1 SEC
21 Tennessee 6-1 SEC
19 Illinois 6-1 Big Ten
19 Memphis 6-1 AAC
19 Pitt 6-0 ACC
19 UNLV 6-1 MW
19 Ole Miss 5-2 SEC
Every team in the MAC has three losses or more, and every team in the Sun Belt has two losses or more. All have an unlikely path to the playoffs. Undefeated Liberty, which I discussed last week, is the only hope for Conference USA but is only at 13 points.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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