Independent Country

James Leroy Wilson's one-man magazine.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Danny Dimes to Dollars to Done to Indiana Jones

 


Image: Torsten Bolten


During the 2019 preseason, when he was a Giants rookie, fans started calling rookie QB Daniel Jones "Danny Dimes" because, as Bill Heyen explained, a dime is a "perfect pass," and Jones was throwing them frequently in preseason games, which have meaningless results. As it turns out, Jones's first three seasons weren't great for him or the team, and the nickname became ironic.


In his fourth year, however, the Giants went 9-6-1 and won a playoff game. Jones parlayed that into a 4-year, $160 million contract, which seemed high for a quarterback who, even that year, was good but not great. Hence, "Danny Dollars." The Giants couldn't afford to keep star RB Saquon Barkley, whom many thought was the real reason for the 2022 success, because of Jones's contract. 


The Giants returned to their losing ways, and they released Jones in late 2024. Hence, "Danny Done." But in the 2025 preseason Jones beat out Anthony Richardson to become the starting Indianapolis Colts quarterback. As in Indianapolis, Indiana. 


If Jones returns the Colts to consistent greatness as they had with Peyton Manning, or that period of pretty-goodness with Andrew Luck, then "Indiana Jones" would be a fitting nickname, as Colts fans would have a new QB hero.


And so far, so good. The Colts are 2-0. Jones started the season by leading the Colts to score on their first ten possessions, and the Colts have yet to punt. Jones heads the list of only four players who had great games in both of their team's wins. 


Leaders in the hunt for the NFL MVP. (Methodology explained here):




COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS


Eliminations


I'm eliminating nine teams from the college football playoffs each week. Entering Conference Championship week, there will be 19 teams remaining who have not yet been eliminated. Then we'll see which 12 the Selection Committee will select and which 12 I hadn't eliminated.


Four proud major (or once-major) schools, Virginia Tech, UCLA, Washington State, and Oregon State, are gone. The changing football landscape has certainly not helped the three former Pac-12 schools. Virginia Tech's gone downhill little by little since coach Frank Beamer retired after the 2015 season.


This week, we can say with confidence that we won't be seeing them in mid-December.


  1. Virginia Tech: 0-3; fired coach

  2. UCLA: 0-3; fired coach

  3. Central Michigan: Lost by 60 to Michigan

  4. Washington State: Lost by 49 to North Texas (NORTH TEXAS!)

  5. Louisiana: Lost by 42 to Missouri

  6. Temple: Lost by 39 to Oklahoma

  7. Western Michigan: 0-3; lost by 38 to Illinois

  8. New Mexico State: Lost by 35 to Louisiana Tech

  9. Oregon State 0-3: lost by 31 to Texas Tech


Preliminary list of playoff contenders.


NC State is 3-0, and all its opponents so far were FBS teams. Those teams are a combined 6-0 in their other games. NC State's "rating" is therefore 6, because that's the number of wins its FBS opponents have had.  


Here are the leaders based on that methodology, which I believe is crucial to considering who belongs in the Playoffs. 


NC State 6

Ole Miss St 5

Arizona 4

Iowa St 4

LSU 4

Miss St 4

Oklahoma 4

USC 4

Auburn 3

Alabama 3

Georgia 3

Houston 3

Kansas 3

Indiana 3

Kentucky 3

Michigan 3

Missouri 3

Ohio State 3

Penn St 3

Texas A&M 3

Tulane 3



Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5/month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I'll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

Friday, September 12, 2025

NFL MVP Chase Week 1; Plus: FBS Week 2 Playoff Eliminations, Dwight, Carmelo

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

I hoped to provide this earlier in the week, but distractions got in the way. Data included at posting (Friday, September 12, 2025) doesn't include the Thursday night NFL game or college games played yesterday or today.


TODAY


  • NBAers in the Basketball Hall of Fame

  • NFL MVP Chase

  • College Football losers



DWIGHT AND CARMELO


Last weekend, the Basketball Hall of Fame inducted its Class of 2025. Former NBA stars Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony were in the group.


They both belong in the Basketball Hall of Fame, which encompasses not only the NBA but also the WNBA, as well as international and college basketball for both men and women. Dwight belongs because he was the best center in the world for many years, and Carmelo was a longtime NBA star with an NCAA championship and three Olympic gold medals.


When the  75 greatest NBA players list was released in 2021, Carmelo was on it, and Dwight was not. I wanted to comment after hearing Zach Lowe and Howard Beck discuss their legacies.


I believe Dwight belonged on the list and Carmelo did not. When I created my own 75 list, I just added 25 to the 50 already named in 1996's Top 50 list. At the time, there were 21 players since 1986 (and not in the original 50) who were both:


  • 2-time (or more) First Team All-NBA

  • An MVP and/or the best player on a Finals team


I included them all on my list, and Dwight was one of them. He was a 5-time First Team All-NBA, made eight All-NBA teams in total, and led the Magic to the 2009 Finals. He also finished in the top five for MVP voting four times.


Carmelo was never First Team All-NBA, with six All-NBA selections total and one top-five MVP finish. I noted "a lack of sustained playoff success" as a reason to keep him and several others off the list. Yes, his prime years had conference rivals like Duncan, Kobe, Dirk, and (later) LeBron, so no one can fault him for not winning a championship. That said, he won just three playoff rounds in the 13 seasons where his teams made the playoffs. Carmelo was great, but rarely elite. 


NFL MVP CHASE


The 2025 MVP Chase, as always, begins with one condition: what a player does in losses will, under no circumstances, help his case for the Most Valuable Player award. That's because the value in the player is in his contributions to team success, and team success means winning. The MVP isn't a "best" or "outstanding" player award.


For quarterbacks, I'll use the stat I invented called the QBI (Quarterback Index). In a victory:


  • Total up the quarterbacks' first downs and touchdowns, both passing and rushing.

  • Subtract the total number of interceptions, sacks, and fumbles.

  • To earn an MVP point, the minimum QBI is 12. Quarterbacks can earn up to 1.5 points if their QBI is 22+

For backs and receivers, I'll use what I call YSA (yards from scrimmage adjusted):

  • Determine their yards from scrimmage (yards rushing and receiving)

  • Add 10 for each touchdown

  • Subtract 10 for each fumble.

To earn an MVP point, the minimum YSA is 100, but backs and receivers can earn up to 1.5 points if they reach 200 or more. Only in victories, of course.

That said, here are the first entrants into the NFL MVP Playoff Chase of 2025.



Thanks to Stathead for the data I needed for this list.


There are several ties where multiple players have wound up with the same number. There will be greater separation as the weeks go by.


FBS Playoff Eliminations


As I mentioned last week, I will remove nine teams from college football playoff consideration each week. This will mean 19 teams left entering the conference championship game weekend. After that, the list will be reduced to the twelve that deserve to make the playoffs.


Wishing the best for these nine teams, but we won't be seeing them in mid-December:


  1. Eastern Michigan - Lost to an FCS team

  2. UMass - Lost to an FCS team

  3. Louisiana-Monroe - Lost to Alabama by 73

  4. Akron - Lost to Nebraska by 68

  5. Oklahoma State - Lost to Oregon by 66

  6. Kent State - Lost by 48 to Texas Tech

  7. Kennesaw State - Lost by 47 to Indiana

  8. Ball State - Lost to Ball State by 39 (after losing to Purdue by 31)

  9. Georgia Southern - Lost by 39 to USC after losing by 28 to Fresno State



Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5/month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I'll be able to produce.


Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

Thursday, September 04, 2025

2025 NFL Predictions

Image: Torsten Bolten

Here are my predictions for the final standings of the NFL divisions in 2025. They are based solely on the rankings of the head coach by career winning percentage and the best-performing quarterbacks over the past three seasons, as determined by "The measure of a quarterback."

For each team, I provide the name and rank of the head coach, followed by the name and rank of the quarterback. Then, you'll see the sum of their rankings. I predict that the lower the number, the higher the eam will finish.

These predictions don't take into account any success young quarterbacks and new coaches may have (all five first-year coaches are ranked 28th). But it doesn't take non-QB roster moves into account either. The Cowboys traded perennial All-Pro defensive end Micah Parsons to the Packers, but it didn't elevate the Packers or drop the Cowboys. These predictions are an experiment on the hypothesis that the coach/QB combo, by itself, can predict regular-season success.

That said, the prediction I'm most nervous about is the Seahawks, because one great season with the Vikings in 2024 inflated Sam Darnold's ranking. I'm also anxious about the Dolphins making the playoffs, not optimistic that Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy.   

Among teams with new coaches or young quarterbacks, I could see the Jaguars (with a new coach in Liam Coen) taking the playoff spot I have reserved for the Dolphins. The Titans, with first-overall QB pick Cam Ward, may pass the Colts for 3rd in the AFC South. I'd like to think the Bears will be much better, but for them to even catch third place in the NFC North, some other team will have to regress sharply. The most likely candidate is the Vikings, as they have an unknown quantity in new starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Teams predicted to make the playoffs are in bold. If I successfully predict a team to make the playoffs, even if my prediction for how they finished in the standings is off, I'll still consider it correct.

NFC EAST

  1. Eagles: Nick Siriani (1); Jalen Hurts (4): 5

  2. Commanders: Dan Quinn (17); Jayden Daniels (10): 27

  3. Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer (28); Dak Prescott (8): 36

  4. Giants: Brian Daboll (24); Russell Wilson (24): 48


NFC NORTH


  1. Packers: Matt Lafleur (3), Jordan Love (9): 12 

  2. Lions: Dan Campbell (14); Jared Goff (5): 19

  3. Vikings: Kevin O'Connell (4); J.J. McCarthy (30): 34

  4. Bears: Ben Johnson (28); Caleb Williams (29): 57



NFC SOUTH


  1. Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (22); Baker Mayfield (19): 41

  2. Falcons: Raheem Morris (23); Michael Penix (22): 45

  3. Panthers: Dave Canales (26); Bryce Young (28): 54

  4. Saints: Kellen Moore (28); Spencer Rattler (32*) 60


NFC WEST


  1. Seahawks: Mike Macdonald (12); Sam Darnold (17): 29

  2. Rams: Sean McVay (10); Matthew Stafford (20): 30

  3. 49ers: Kyle Shanahan (18); Brock Purdy (14): 32

  4. Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon (25): Kyler Murray (16): 41


AFC EAST


  1. Bills: Sean McDermott (5); Josh Allen (1): 6

  2. Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (15); Tua Tagovailoa (7): 22

  3. Patriots: Mike Vrabel (16); Drake Maye (25): 41

  4. Jets: Aaron Glenn (28); Justin Fields (27): 55


AFC NORTH


  1. Ravens: John Harbaugh (8); Lamar Jackson (6): 14

  2. Bengals: Zac Taylor (21); Joe Burrow (3): 24

  3. Steelers: Mike Tomlin (7); Aaron Rodgers (23): 30

  4. Browns: Kevin Stefanski: (20); Joe Flacco (13): 33



AFC SOUTH


  1. Texans: DeMeco Ryans (11); C.J. Stroud (21): 32

  2. Jaguars: Liam Coen (28); Trevor Lawrence (15): 43

  3. Colts: Shane Steichen (19); Daniel Jones* (26): 45

  4. Titans: Brian Callahan (27); Cam Ward (31): 59


AFC WEST


  1. Chiefs: Andy Reid (6); Patrick Mahomes (2): 8

  2. Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (2); Justin Herbert (12): 13

  3. Broncos: Sean Payton (9); Bo Nix (11): 20

  4. Raiders: Pete Carroll (13); Geno Smith (18): 31


* Not listed in my original rankings, assigned the same ranking as I did to the team's original predicted starter.



Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5/month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I'll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.