Last Thursday, quarterback Cam Ward of the Miami (FL) college football team was selected by the Tennessee Titans as the first overall pick of the 2025 NFL draft. Like anyone who's selected in the draft, I'm unsure how well he'll perform as a pro; more importantly, I'm uncertain about his prospects for the team that drafted him..
Ward may win a Super Bowl for the Titans, in which case, the draft pick will have worked out perfectly for them. Or, he might struggle with the Titans and then earn Pro Bowls and win Super Bowls elsewhere. If that happens, then when his career is over, we'll say he was a great player who lived up to his potential as the #1 overall pick.
But… How would that have helped the Titans? Perhaps they could have won a Super Bowl if they picked somebody else.
I'm curious how well the #1 overall picks have worked out for the teams that selected them. If the player was a starter on a Super Bowl-winning team, the pick was a success, no question. He was selected to fill a need, and it all paid off. What more could be asked? An NFL team will win the Super Bowl once every 32 years on average. If you picked a guy who helped get you one, you picked the right guy.
Below, I rank the #1 overall picks based on how well the player worked out for their first team. So, for instance, Peyton Manning's work with the Broncos isn't taken into consideration, only what he accomplished with the Colts.
Speaking of the Broncos, John Elway wasn't drafted by them; he was drafted (coincidentally) by the Colts, and the Broncos traded for him before the season started. I'm proceeding as if Elway had been drafted by the Broncos, because he never signed with any other team. There was a similar situation with Eli Manning and the Chargers; I'm treating him as if drafted by the Giants.
I am ranking the players based on the number of Super Bowl titles they won with the team that drafted them. In the event of a tie, I prioritize the number of Pro Bowl selections they had with that team, as Pro Bowl selections are indicative of championship-caliber play. A Pro Bowl selection is evidence that the team was not wrong in making the pick.
I'm beginning with 1970, the start of the modern era of the NFL, following the AFL-NFL merger. Oddly enough, the most excellent #1 overall pick of all time is the first, Terry Bradshaw.
Here is the list, a relatively short one, of top overall picks who won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them.
1970 Terry Bradshaw, QB, Steelers, 4 Super Bowl wins (3 Pro Bowls)
1989 Troy Aikman, QB, Cowboys, 3 Super Bowl wins (6 Pro Bowls)
1991 Russell Maryland, DT, Cowboys, 3 (1)
1983 John Elway, QB, Broncos, 2 (9)
2004 Eli Manning, QB, Giants 2 (4)
1998 Peyton Manning, QB, Colts, 1 (11)
1997 Orlando Pace, OT, Rams, 1 (7)
1974 Ed "Too Tall" Jones, DE, Cowboys, 1 (3)
2013 Eric Fisher, OT, Chiefs, 1 (2)
As you see, only nine of the 55 picks from 1970 through 2024 won a Super Bowl for their first team. It doesn't mean everyone else was a mistake. Continuing the ranking, here are the top overall picks who didn't win the Super Bowl for their drafting team but earned a pile of Pro Bowls and, usually, some other honor (such as Defensive or Offensive Player of the Year, All-Decade team). Players in bold are still playing, although not necessarily for the same team.
1985 Bruce Smith, DE, Bills (11 Pro Bowls)
2017 Myles Garrett, DE, Browns (6)
1976 Lee Roy Selmon, DE, Buccaneers (6)
1978 Earl Campbell, RB, Oilers (5)
These four did the next-best thing to leading their teams to a Super Bowl win, and that's a Super Bowl appearance. Cam Newton leads this group because of his 15-1 MVP season:
2010 Cam Newton, QB, Panthers (3 Pro Bowls)
1993 Drew Bledsoe, QB, Patriots (3)
2016 Jared Goff, QB, Rams (2)
2000 Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (2)
Impactful over a limited number of years (7 or fewer for the drafting team):
2012 Andrew Luck, QB, Colts (4 Pro Bowls)
2001 Michael Vick, QB, Falcons (3)
1980 Billy Sims, RB, Lions (3)
2014 Jadeveon Clowney, LB, Texans (3)
2008 Jake Long, OT, Dolphins (4)
2006 Mario Williams, DE, Texans (3)
1996: Keyshawn Johnson, WR, Jets (2)
1980 George Rogers, RB, Saints (2)
2019 Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (2)
Considered at least pretty good over a long period:
1975 Steve Bartkowski, QB, Falcons 11 years (2 Pro Bowls)
2009 Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions 12 yrs (1)
2003 Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals 8 yrs (2)
1984 Irving Fryar, WR, Patriots, 9 yrs (1)
At least a promising start; early evidence that the pick wasn't necessarily wrong:
2021 Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (Pro Bowl and playoff win in second year)
2018: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns (over .500; playoff win in third year)
2022: Travon Walker, QB, Jaguars (24 sacks over three years)
2015 Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers (Pro Bowl rookie year)
1971 Jim Plunkett, QB, Patriots (Offensive Rookie of the Year)
2010 Sam Bradford, Rams (Offensive Rookie of the Year)
Better on a later team(s), but never elite:
2005: Alex Smith, QB, 49ers
1987: Vinny Testaverde, Buccaneers
1990: Jeff George, Colts (he led the NFL in passing yards with the Raiders)
1973: John Matuszak, Oilers (A near disaster. Traded to Chiefs after one year in contract dispute; later won two rings with Raiders. The trade worked out for Houston, who received Hall of Famer Curley Culp and a 1975 first-round pick, Hall of Famer Robert Brazile.)
41-50 Mostly mediocre at best throughout career in alphabetical order; injury what-Ifs are italicized.
1977; Ricky Bell, RB, Buccaneers
1994: Ki-Jana Carter, Bengals
2000: Courtney Brown, DE, Browns
1988: Aundray Bruce, LB, Falcons
2002: David Carr, QB, Texans
1999: Tim Couch, QB, Browns
1992: Steve Emtman, DE, Colts
1972: Walt Patulski, DE, Bills
1982: Kenneth Sims, DE, Patriots
1994: Dan Wilkinson, DT, Bengals
Biggest Bust:
51: 2007: JaMarcus Russell, QB, Raiders
Disasters:
52. 1980: Tom Cousineau, LB, Bills. The Bills were outbid by a Canadian Football League team. (Talk about a different era!) Cousineau later played with the Browns.
53. 1986: Bo Jackson, RB, Buccaneers. Refused to play for the team with good reason, opted for MLB. A season later made a splash with the Raiders.
Too soon to rank, although not as promising as other players in their draft class:
2023: Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
2024: Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
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