The team that gets the quarterback right

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

The Cowboys are only a .500 team, but quarterback Dak Prescott is climbing up the MVP Chase standings. Compiling this week's list reminded me of an anniversary of sorts, which led to thinking about the history of teams and their quarterback situations. But first, the MVP Chase standings:

Dak Prescott entered the NFL in 2016. His predecessor, Tony Romo, became the Cowboys' starting quarterback in week 8 of 2006. Although others have filled in due to injury, the Cowboys are enjoying their 20th consecutive season of knowing who their starting quarterback is and will be.

Having a sense of Cowboys history, I started to think, "Well, they've usually been stable at quarterback, haven't they?" I was reminded of the Packers of Favre-Rodgers, who had 31 years of stability, which may go on for another decade or more with Jordan Love.

I thought about what a "stable" quarterback situation is, and decided that it is six seasons with the same starting quarterback. I had Ken Stabler of the 1970s Raiders in mind for the definition, though he was actually a 7-year starter for them. That five seasons were too few to qualify as "stability" was proved in the research, where I saw that Vinny Testaverde and Jameis Winston both lasted five years in Tampa, but not six. 

I'm not saying all, or even most, of these quarterbacks were that good, but they were the best options for several years. Fans appreciate knowing who their quarterback is, and the question is, which fan bases have enjoyed the most stability at quarterback? I'll rank the teams in reverse order. #1 will surprise you.

I'm going back to 1960, the birth of the AFL. I'm not including pre-1960 seasons for NFL teams so that most teams will be on roughly equal footing. Based on a minimum of six years (doesn't have to be consecutive) during which the same quarterback led their team in passing. Inclusive of passing leaders through week 7 of 2025.

32. Buccaneers: 0/50 years. (Their Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, Brad Johnson and Tom Brady, were there for four and three years, respectively.)

31. Lions: 1 QB, 11/66 years. Matthew Stafford.

30. Bears: 2 QBs, 13/66 years. Jay Cutler and Jim McMahon.

29. Broncos: 1 QB, 16/66 years. John Elway. (Craig Morton led them five years; Peyton Manning four.)

28. Jaguars: 1 QB, 8/31 years. Mark Brunell.

27. Texans: 1 QB, 7/24 years. Matt Schaub.

26. Browns: 3 QBs, 21/63 years: Bernie Kosar, Brian Sipe, Frank Ryan.

25. Commanders: 3 QBs, 22/66 years: Joe Theismann, Billy Kilmer, Sonny Jurgensen (all consecutive, 1964-1985).

24. Jets: 3 QBs, 22/66 years. Ken O'Brien, Richard Todd, Joe Namath

23. Raiders: 3 QBs, 23/66 years. Derek Carr, Ken Stabler, Daryle Lamonica.

22. Vikings: 3 QBs, 26/65 years. Kirk Cousins, Tommy Kramer, Fran Tarkenton.

21. Falcons: 2 QBs, 23/60 years. Matt Ryan, Steve Bartkowski.

20. Rams: 3 QBs, 24/66 years. Marc Bulger, Jim Everett, Roman Gabriel.

19. Saints: 2 Qbs, 24/66 years. Drew Brees, Archie Manning.

18. Giants: 2 QBs, 25/66 years. Eli Manning, Phil Simms.

17. Chiefs: 3 QBs, 27/66 years. Patrick Mahomes, Bill Kenney, Len Dawson

16. 49ers: 3 QBs, 29/66 years. Steve Young, Joe Montana, John Brodie.

15. Panthers: 2 QBs, 14/31 years. Cam Newton, Jake Delhomme.

14. Steelers: 2 Qbs, 29/65 years. Ben Roethlisberger, Terry Bradshaw. 

13. Dolphins: 2 QBs, 29/60 years. Dan Marino, Bob Griese.

12. Cardinals: 4 QBs, 33/66 years. Kyler Murray, Jake Plummer, Neil Lomax, Jim Hart

11. Eagles: 4 QBs, 33/66 years. Donovan McNabb, Randall Cunningham, Ron Jaworski, Norm Snead.

10. Titans: 4 QBS, 34/65 years. Steve McNair, Warren Moon, Dan Pastorini, George Blanda.

9. Seahawks: 4 QBs, 35/66 years. Russell Wilson, Matt Hasselbeck, Dave Krieg, Jim Zorn.

8. Colts: 4 QBs: 35/66 years. Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Bert Jones, Johnny Unitas.

7. Bengals: 36/58 years. 4 QBs: Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Boomer Esiason, Ken Anderson, 

6. Bills: 4 QBs, 37/66 years. Josh Allen, Jim Kelly, Joe Ferguson, Jack Kemp.

5. Ravens: 2 QBs, 18/30 years. Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco.

4. Patriots: 4 QB, 43/66 years. Tom Brady, Drew Bledsoe, Steve Grogan, Babe Parilli.

3. Cowboys: 6 QBs, 48/66 years. Dak Prescott, Tony Romo, Troy Aikman, Danny White, Roger Staubach, Don Meredith.

2. Packers: 4 QBs, 48/66 years. Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Lynn Dickey, Bart Starr.

1. Chargers: 5 QBs, 50/66 years. Justin Herbert, Philip Rivers, Stan Humphries, Dan Fouts, John Hadl.

It turns out that historically, the Chargers had the most stable quarterback situation. But there isn't too much rhyme or reason to the list. The Chargers have just one pre-Super Bowl AFL championship and one Super Bowl appearance. Around the middle of the pack are the Steelers, 49ers, and Chiefs, each of whom has had far more success despite about half of the luck at the QB position that the Chargers have had. The Buccaneers have had no QB stability as I've defined it, but they have two Super Bowl wins to the Chargers' none.

As good as the Chargers QBs have been, there isn't a Mahomes, Montana, or Brady in the group. Also, the Chargers have just a .500 record since 1960. Ownership, management, and coaching remain vital to team success, even when they get the quarterback right —which the Chargers usually do.

Subscriptions to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

Ole Miss vs. Florida

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

With Billy Napier fired as head coach of Florida, the October 20th Cover 3 podcast discussed possible candidates for the position. Lane Kiffin was mentioned, and the question arose as to whether it would be easier to win a national championship at Ole Miss, Kiffin's current stop, or in Gainesville.

It got me wondering: had Ole Miss ever won a national championship? I suspected that if so, it was no more than one, and I wasn't 100% sure. Then I started thinking that, in this day and age, schools that have won multiple national championships before are most likely to win them again. I decided to check the evidence.

2025 is the 90th year of the Associated Press college football poll of sports journalists ranking college football teams. The United Press International poll of coaches came about in 1950, and the Coaches Poll has remained under different names since 1990. Other organizations (Football Writers Association of America, National Football Foundation) also have had polls.

From 1936 through 1997, the #1 team at the end of the season was long considered "the" national champion, or co-champion if the major polls differed. The advent of the BCS (a one-game playoff) in 1998, followed by the four-team playoffs (2014-2023) and 12-team playoffs (2024-), mostly eliminated the split championship, although in 2003, the AP and FWAA split with the BCS. Nevertheless, because of the splits, there have been 115 "national champions" in the 89 seasons since the AP poll began. 

(Before 1936, there were no services or polls determining champions. Champions have been designated retroactively, but because the players weren't actually motivated by playing for a #1 ranking those years, I don't count such championships.)

Only 33 of the 136 current schools in the Football Bowl Subdivision have won the national championship, as determined by the polls or BCS/Playoffs. Here they are, listed in the order of their most recent year won, with their total number of championships in parentheses:

2024: Ohio State (9)

2023: Michigan (3)

2022: Georgia (3)

2020: Alabama (13)

2019: LSU (4) 

2018: Clemson (3)

2013: Florida State (3)

2010: Auburn (2)

2008: Florida (3)

2005: Texas (4)

2004: USC (7)

2001: Miami (5)

2000: Oklahoma (7)

1999: Tennessee (2)

1997: Nebraska (5)

1991: Washington (1); Georgia Tech (1)

1990: Colorado (1)

1988: Notre Dame (9)

1986: Penn State (2)

1984: Brigham Young (1)

1976: Pitt (2)

1966: Michigan State (3)

1964: Arkansas (1)

1960: Minnesota (4); Ole Miss (1)

1959: Syracuse (1)

1958: Iowa (1)

1954: UCLA (1)

1953: Maryland (1)

1945: Army (2)

1939: Texas A&M (1)

1938: TCU (1)

Ole Miss has won one title, and that was 65 years ago. Florida has won three, all in the past 30 years. Ole Miss is the 24th-winningest program in major college football since 1936. Florida ranks 15th. However, in the expanded SEC, Ole Miss is 11th-winningest; Florida is seventh. In the number of national championships in the conference, Ole Miss is tied for ninth, and Florida is tied for fifth. Eight other SEC schools have won a national title since Ole Miss did.

Other schools have had lengthy waits between championships, such as Auburn (1957-2010), LSU (1958-2003), Tennessee (1951-1998), and Michigan (1948-1997). But they were frequent conference title contenders, and sometimes national title contenders. In contrast, going back 62 years, Ole Miss's two best seasons each had two losses. 

Florida has been inconsistent, with four head coaches fired since Urban Meyer left after the 2010 season. But 2011-2024, Florida nonetheless has managed two 11-2 seasons to Ole Miss's one, and one more winning season overall.

An excellent coach is more likely to find greatness (national championships) at Florida than at Ole Miss. The fact that the times have changed will not make much of a difference; the advantages that helped Florida win championships before players were paid are the same advantages they have today. 

That's not to say Lane Kiffin would win a national championship if he bolted for Florida, only to say any coach stands a better chance there.

MVP CHASE TOP 25 

1. Ohio State 30

2. Indiana 29

3. Georgia Tech 24

4. Texas A8M 24

5. Alabama 22

6. Georgia 22

7. BYU 21

8. Oregon 21

9. Louisville 20

10. Miami 18

11. Virginia 18

12. Texash Tech 17

13. Ole Miss 16

14. Oklahoma 16

15. Navy 15

16. South Florida 15

17. North Texas 15

18. Cincinnati 15

19. Notre Dame 15

20. LSU 14

21. Missouri 13

22. Vanderbilt 13

23. Tulane 13

24. Houston 12

25. J. Madison 12

The numbers beside each team reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the teams it lost to and the margin of defeat. (In this system, most teams would have a negative number.)

Playoff Eliminations

I've been crossing off nine teams every week from the College Football Playoffs. I have eliminated 72 so far. Here are this week's nine. We won't see these teams in December.

Arizona: 4-3; 1-3 in conference

Clemson: 3-4

Florida St: 3-4

Kentucky: 2-4; 

Maryland 4-3; 1-3 in conference

Michigan State: 3-4 

Old Dominion: 4-3, lost by 36 to James Madison

Rutgers 3-4 

South Carolina: 3-4

Subscriptions to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

Baker Belongs

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

IN THIS ISSUE:

• MVP Chase Update

• College Football playoff eliminations

• College Football rankings

MVP Chase Update

In the 2018 draft, I was skeptical that Baker Mayfield had the talent to be a #1 overall draft pick. For his draft class, he might never be as good as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson already have been. But he's been a winner on his fourth team, Tampa, with good statistics to boot. 

Earlier this year, I ranked Mayfield as the 32nd-best #1 overall pick since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. That was based only on how well things worked out for him with the team that drafted him. Only five such QBs won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them: Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning. Matthew Stafford and Jim Plunkett were starting QBs for Super Bowl winners for a team that didn't draft them.

Mayfield may join the latter pair at some point. Nevertheless, he's solidified himself as "belonging" to the 1st Overall club. As Carson Palmer and Alex Smith did, and as Jared Goff's been doing, Mayfield's been winning a lot of games and making the playoffs frequently. And that is what you want. It's a long season, but he's had a good start, tied for third in the MVP Chase:

 

College Football Playoff Eliminations

Here are nine additional teams I wouldn't invite to the FBS Playoffs even if they ran the table. Teams with four or more losses also won't make it, obviously, but it's more interesting to eliminate supposedly good teams now.

Arizona St 4-2 lost by 32 to Utah

Florida St 3-3; 0-3 in conference

Fresno St - 5-2 lost by 28 to Colorado St

Louisiana Tech 4-2 lost by 28 to Kennesaw St

Michigan St 3-3 lost by 25 to UCLA; 0-3 in conference

NC St 4-3 lost by 29 to Notre Dame

Penn St 3-3: Despite being three plays from being undefeated, they are 0-3 in conference. Fired the coach.

Rice 3-3 Lost by 48 to UTSA

South Carolina 3-3: 3 conference losses

This brings the total eliminations to 63. You can see the other 54 teams here.

Ranking the Undefeated and One-Loss Teams

The numbers beside each team reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the team it lost to and the margin of defeat.

In cases of a tie among the top 12 teams (those I would select as playoff-bound if the playoffs began today), I prioritize the team with the better record and include an explanatory note when the records are identical. 

Beyond the top 12, teams that are tied are in alphabetical order. I don't have an AP Top 25 ballot, and it hardly matters for the Playoff Chase. For reference, I included two-loss Notre Dame, whose only losses are by one score to undefeated teams.

1. Indiana (6-0) - 22 

2. Ohio St (6-0) - 21

3. Texas A&M (6-0) - 19; more dominant over competition than Georgia Tech

4. Georgia Tech (6-0) - 19

5. Ole Miss (6-0) - 18

6. Texas Tech (6-0) - 16

7. Miami FL (5-0) - 14 - same points as BYU with one less game

8. BYU (6-0) - 14

9. Alabama - 14; lost by 14 to Florida State; closer to being undefeated than Washington

10. Washington - 14 lost by 18 to Ohio State

11. Cincinnati (5-1) - 13

12. Memphis (6-0) - 12 

13. USC (5-1)  - 12

14. Navy (6-0) - 11

(15 through 20 listed alphabetically)

15. Georgia (5-1) 11

16. LSU (5-1) 11

17. Nebraska (5-1) 11

18. North Texas (5-1) 11

19. Oklahoma (5-1) 11

20. Oregon (5-1) 11

21. Louisville (4-1) - 10

22. NOTRE DAME (4-2) - 10

23. UNLV (6-0) - 9

24. Tennessee (5-1) - 9

25. (Tied 24th) Tulane (5-1) - 9

26. Virginia (5-1)- 8

27. Houston (5-1)- 7

28. (T-27th) Missouri (5-1) - 7

29. (T-27th) Utah (5-1) - 7

30. Vanderbilt (5-1) - 5

31. James Madison (5-1) - 4

32. San Diego State (5-1) - 3

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.