NFL MVP Chase and FBS Playoff Chase Oct 16 2024

 

Photo credit: Torsten Bolten

In this Issue:

NFL MVP Chase

FBS Playoff Chase

• NFL MVP Chase

Note: the MVP Chase is explained here. 

The Vikings had a bye week last week, giving several players the chance to pass Sam Darnold as the leader of the MVP Chase. Two stepped up to the challenge, with Derrick Henry claiming the top stop and C.J. Stroud second. Week 14 is the bye week for both, so if their teams keep winning we could have a back-and-forth affair.

Then again, any player ranked 3-8 could claim the #1 spot depending on who wins, who loses, and who has a great game. We can also congratulate D'Andre Swift for cracking the Top Ten, but he'll probably slip out as the Bears have a bye this week. In the second ten, Caleb Williams is, perhaps surprisingly, ahead of fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, but he'll be off just like his teammate Swift. 

Here is the top twenty in the MVP Chase.

1. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans, 5.746 MVP Points
2. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans, 5.196
3. Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings, 4.649
4. Josh Allen, QB, Bills, 4.377
5. David Montgomery, RB, Lions, 4.250
6. Jared Goff, QB, Lions, 4.231
7. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings, 4.210
8. Nico Collins, WR, Texans, 4.203
9. D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
10. Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings, 4.060
11. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers 4.020
12. Justin Fields, QB, Steelers, 3.911
13. Chris Godwin, RB, Buccaneers, 3.650
14. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears, 3.572
15. Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers, 3.542
16. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders, 3.471
17. Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers, 3.450
18. James Cook, RB, Bills, 3.350
19. Jameson Williams, WR, Lions, 3.310
20. Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons, 3.292

FBS Playoff Chase

The FBS Playoff Chase is my way of selecting the 12-team College Football Playoff at the end of the regular season. The system balances strength of schedule with dominance over the schedule while controlling for runaway scores. Ideally, the top 12 in my FBS points system at the end of the season will be in the playoffs.

One undefeated team is not in my Top 25. Liberty's (5-0) opponents have won a total of six games against FBS teams, and Liberty's best win is against 3-3 East Carolina. A game against Appalachian State was canceled due to Hurricane Helene and if the Flames find a replacement opponent for a twelfth game, it will likely come from the lower-division FCS. Unlike most teams from less-respected conferences, Liberty has no games against a Power Four (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) team.

In contrast, Boise State lost by a field goal to undefeated Oregon and trounced Washington State, a Power-4 level team. That's why they're a more realistic playoff contender at this point.

Texas has taken command of the Playoff Chase. Its six opponents have won 19 games and the Longhorns dominated five of the six. They might lose to Georgia this week and still keep the top spot.

Here are the Top 25 in FBS Playoff points as of October 15, 2024. The FBS Playoff points are on the left, and teams tied in points are listed alphabetically.

30 Texas (6-0) -SEC

24 Alabama (5-1) - SEC

24 BYU (6-0) - Big 12

24 Ohio State (5-1) - Big Ten

24 Oregon (6-0) - Big Ten

23 Indiana (6-0) - Big Ten

23 Iowa St (6-0) - Big 12

23 Ohio St (5-1) - Big Ten

22 Boise St (5-1) - Mountain West

21 James Madison (5-1) - Sun Belt

21 Miami FL (6-0) - ACC

20 Army (6-0) - AAC

20 Penn St (6-0) - Big Ten

19 Notre Dame (5-1) - Independent

18 Pitt (6-0) - ACC

18 Texas Tech (5-1) - Big 12

17 Georgia (5-1) - SEC

17 Kansas St (5-1) - Big 12

17 Navy (5-0) - AAC

17 SMU (5-1) - ACC

17 Texas A&M (5-1) - SEC

17 Washington St (5-1) - Pac 

16 Nebraska (5-1) - Big Ten

16 Ole Miss (5-2) - SEC

16 Syracuse (5-1) - ACC

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

New Baseball Stats: All-Time Offensive Leaders

 

Photo credit: Tage Olsin

The extraordinary seasons of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, and Pete Rose's recent passing, prompted me to finally do something I have wanted to do for a long time: create the statistics I want to see. 

These are not "advanced stats" for the analytic nerds ("that guy actually sucked considering the home field he played in," etc.).  The stats I had in mind are quite simple. They may exist elsewhere because others could have easily thought of them. But instead of spending more time trying to find them, I decided to subscribe to Stathead to get the data I sought. I then set up the computations I wanted on a spreadsheet.

The statistics are Bases Gained and Scoring.

The idea comes from football. I value total yards from scrimmage more than career rushing yards or receiving yards, and total touchdowns more than how the touchdowns were scored. Yes, Jerry Rice tops both lists, and almost all of the yards and touchdowns came from receiving, but not all. In addition, it's not obvious to me that among running backs, the all-time rushing leader would also lead all running backs in total yards, because some running backs were more significant pass-catchers than others. (Yes, Emmitt Smith does lead all RBs in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage, but I thought the scrimmage leader could be Walter Payton.) 

I was thus curious about baseball's offensive statistics, where bases are like yards and runs are like touchdowns. 

Bases Gained is Total Bases* plus Bases on Balls (walks) plus Stolen Bases. It measures a player's productivity on offense independent of the batting production of teammates; it's what he does by himself with his bat and his feet.

Scoring is Runs plus Runs Batted In (RBI) minus Home Runs. (The number of home runs has to be deducted because it's already included in both Runs and RBI totals; subtracting the number avoids double-counting.) Like hockey's scoring total that adds Goals and Assists, this baseball scoring list combines the runs scored by a player and the runs he drove in. 

Part of the reason I wanted these statistics was to see how productive a player like Pete Rose was. I know he had 4,256 hits, so at least 4,256 bases gained. But what more did he do, and how does this compare to the bases gained by the home run kings?

I will apply these statistical categories to the 2024 MVP before the season's over, but for now, I'll provide the top 20 all-time in Bases Gained followed by Scoring.

All-Time Bases Gained

All-Time Scoring

When he retired, Pete Rose was 7th all-time in bases gained and 8th all-time in scoring. With a few exceptions, the bases list is dominated by power hitters. What struck me about the scoring list is that all 14 decades from the 1870s to the 2000s have at least one Top 20 scorer's rookie year. The top two scorers hit fewer home runs than Rose. A lot of things have changed in the last 110, 140 years.

Rose has a close contemporary on both lists. Carl Yastrzemski started two years earlier and retired three years before Rose. It could be pointed out that, per game, Rose was the least efficient player on both lists. Yastrzemski was second-least efficient in scoring and third-least efficient in bases gained per game. Both men, however, played their entire careers in a pitcher-dominated era, and Rose also played 70% of his games as a leadoff hitter, diminishing his chances of batting in runs. In any case, they are both far ahead of their near-age contemporaries and could be considered the greatest hitters of their generation.

I will re-visit the concepts of Bases Gained and Scoring in future posts.

* Total Bases,  from MLB.com: "Total bases refer to the number of bases gained by a batter through his hits. A batter records one total base for a single, two total bases for a double, three total bases for a triple and four total bases for a home run." 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.