James Leroy Wilson's blog

Monday, October 18, 2004

The Four Million Votes Bush Needs

In 2000, the 20 million strong "Christian conservative" Republican voting bloc won just 16 million with 4 million staying home. Karl Rove's been obsessed with getting that 4 million back, and if he succeeds, the race will be close. That will be a hard sell.The old Reagan conservative coalition is fractured.The editors of the American Conservative(http://www.amconmag.com) could not even agree on an endorsement. Just one out of seven - Pat Buchanan of all people - are endorsing Bush. Seven columns yielded six different endorsements - including one for not voting. Justin Raimondo, a libertarian, is going for Nader. Taki, a skirt-chaser and adventurer, is for ultra-Christian conservative Michael Peroutka. Cases are also made for Kerry and Badnarik. Not that this reflects the American people at large. But it does indicate that Bush's conservative credential are so uneven - some could plausibly say non-existent except for occassional lip-service. I don't see how Bush will win the four million votes he didn't win in 2000. It looks to me that he's performed exactly how they suspected, which is why they didn't vote for him in the first place. If those 4 million vote for Bush, the race will be close. If not, Kerry wins easily.


  1. Anonymous6:33 AM PDT

    Don't suppose there is a way to Balkanize the country into a lot of little independent states.

  2. Anonymous7:29 AM PDT

    I'll admit to not having a grasp of the demographics in this scenario but, apart from guaranteeing Bush the popular vote, would the 4m Evangelical Christian votes significantly impact the Electoral map?

    This is just a guess, but wouldn't the overwhelming majority of those voters be in solidly red states in the first place?


  3. Good observation, Steve. But I suspect, if nothing else, Bush would win Florida easily.

  4. Anonymous9:06 AM PDT

    Yeah, that's a good point. And I assume it puts Southern Ohio into play as well.

    I don't know how common this is but among the 2000 Bush voters that I know personally - including myself and a friend in a battleground state - none is voting for Bush in 2004.

    I know that nothing can be extrapolated from that but I just find it fascinating that Bush has lost support among EVERYONE that I know...