The greatest passers of all time

 

The NFL's Passer Rating statistic has always been controversial. Its critics claim it doesn't account for the true efficiency of a team's passing game because it ignores sacks (and yards lost from sacks). It also has curiosities.  For example, a 77.5 completion rate is as good as a 100% completion rate. At The Data Jocks, writer jdashbrock noted, "Two players with vastly different stats – one could even be noticeably better than the other! – can be labelled as both having perfect games by passer rating." 

Nevertheless, Passer Rating has historically been shown to correlate with team success. In 2011 Kerry Byrne reported that Passer Rating differential (a team's offensive passer rating minus its defensive passer rating) is almost as reliable as scoring differential in identifying winners.

I kept track of passer ratings during most of the 2021 season, discovering that the team with the higher passer rating in the game won 79.6 of the time. Teams that won the turnover battle won 79.2% of the time during the same span. I speculated (with the confidence of common sense) that interceptions were the key factor in both stats.

I've wondered how to compare passers from different eras who operated under different league rules and playbook schemes. For instance, the league average passer rating in 1974 was 64.2; in 2024 it's 91.9. The best of the best from decades ago had far worse passer ratings than they do now simply because it was more difficult to throw the ball. Is there a way to compare them? 

There is. Last week I discovered the Passer Rating Index. In short, in any era, the average passer rating is adjusted to 100, and one standard deviation above average is 115. A Passer Rating Index of 115 in a given year typically meant that the passer was among the top five or six in Passer Rating in that season. Above 100 might be slightly above average, good, or very good; above 115 is elite. 

Using Stathead, I looked at all players that had at least one season with a Passer Rating Index (PRI) of 115 since the NFL's inception. 26 players had a PRI of 115+ in five seasons or more. They are listed in descending order with the number of seasons beside the name. Where the number of seasons is the same, the players are listed alphabetically.

GREATEST PASSERS OF ALL TIME

Drew Brees 12

Peyton Manning 12

Fran Tarkenton 10

Tom Brady 9

Joe Montana 9

Aaron Rodgers 9

Len Dawson 8

Brett Favre 8

Johnny Unitas 8

Russell Wilson 8

Steve Young 8

Dan Fouts 7

Otto Graham 7

Bob Griese 7

Dan Marino 7

Y.A. Tittle 7

Ken Anderson 6 

Sonny Jurgensen 6

Philip Rivers 6

Ben Roethlisberger 6

Bart Starr 6

Roger Staubach 6

Warren Moon 5

Craig Morton 5

Carson Palmer 5

Tony Romo 5

Several quarterbacks have had a PRI of 115+ four times, from Ken Stabler to Boomer Esiason to Kirk Cousins. Earl Morrall reached the mark for four different teams. Patrick Mahomes has reached 115 four times so far but won't in the 2024 season. That even Mahomes has reached it in "only" half the seasons he's played so far speaks to how difficult it is to attain a PRI of 115.

This "Greatest Passers" list isn't a "Greatest Quarterbacks" list. Other factors, including Pro Bowl selections and playoff success, would contribute to a greatest quarterbacks list.

For instance, John Elway had a PRI of 115 or more "only" three times in his career, as did Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman. They have a combined eighteen Pro Bowl selections and nine Super Bowl wins, so being great in Passer Rating throughout one's career isn't necessary to be considered a great quarterback.

That said, almost all of the greatest quarterbacks are on the above list of greatest passers.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

MVP Chase entering Week 16

 

The top 20 in the MVP Chase entering Week 16 includes five players drafted in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. This shouldn't be surprising, because first-rounders are supposed to be really good, and by the seventh year should be in their prime.

But with this group of guys, it's surprising. The first two quarterbacks taken that year, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, are each with their fourth team. They were even together in Carolina for part of one season. Saquon Barkley, the second overall pick (after Mayfield) had some personally productive years with the Giants, but the Giants overall had just one good season during his tenure. With the Eagles, he's showing how a running back can make a good team great; Philadelphia is playing like the best team in the league.

Also in the 2018 class, Lamar Jackson has been an elite QB for a long time, and Josh Allen almost as long. Jackson has already earned two MVPs, and I've heard some in the national media say Allen has the MVP "locked up." 

Well, there are three games left. What if Allen and the Bills lose them all? And Jackson's Ravens win them all? What if Barkley sets records on the way to a 15-2 Eagles finish?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles hold Barkley back a bit while they plan for the playoffs (he didn't have what I call an MVP-level game this past Sunday). I also wouldn't be surprised if Allen does win the MVP. But right now, I have Allen in a virtual tie for second in the MVP Chase.

Remember, in the MVP Chase it's not your overall season stats that matter, and it's not winning that matters, it is playing very good-to-great football in victories. Six touchdowns in a loss won't help you.

Here are the current standings. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

Hart Trophy Chase December 11, 2024

 

Photo credit: Santeri Viinamäki

The MVP Chase is normally about playing great in victories. A quarterback could throw for three touchdowns and run for three more, but if his team loses, that performance doesn't count. What matters is contributing to team success, which means winning.

In the NHL, however, overtime losses count for something. As opposed to losing in regulation, a loss in overtime earns a team one point in the standings (wins count for two points), the way a tie used to count (when NHL games had ties). OT losses contribute to team success, so player performances in those games count in The NHL MVP Chase.

For the NHL MVP chase, or The Hart Trophy Chase, I'm counting the total number of "MVP Games:" An MVP Game is: 

Points scored plus +/- equalling 2 or more in a win or OT loss.

("Points scored" is the player's total number of goals and assists in the game, and "+/-" is the number of goals the player scores minus the number of goals his team allows while the player is on the ice.)

An MVP Game for a goalie is two goals or fewer allowed in a victory, although the leader (Connor Hellebuyck of the Jets) is one game short of the top ten.

Here is the top ten list for the Hart Trophy as of games played through December 11, 2024. Note that a player's overall season points and +/- determine the ranking of players tied in the number of MVP games.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

The MVP isn't the Heisman Trophy

 

On December 8, 2024, Josh Allen passed for three touchdowns and ran for three more, accounting for all six of Buffalo's touchdowns for the game. Just by putting up great numbers in that game, he strengthened his position as the MVP favorite.

But not in the eyes of The MVP Chase, because the Bills lost. 

While it can be pointed out that Allen's not the reason they lost, he's also not the reason they won. Because they didn't. At the MVP Chase, we look for winners. That's because the most valuable player is the one who contributes the most to team success. And "success" means "winning." The more a team wins, the more successful it is. And the more a player contributes to those wins, the more valuable he is.

The MVP doesn't go to the "best" player, or the "outstanding" player as college football's Heisman Trophy does. And if the MVP was just about stats, Joe Burrow of the 5-8 Bengals should perhaps be the favorite, not Allen.

That said, Josh Allen does remain in the thick of the MVP Chase which values contributions (usually in the form of stats) in victories. That's because the Bills have a lot of wins and he played well in most of them. And had the Bills won on Sunday, he may be in 2nd place or just a hair behind Jared Goff. 

But I don't take into account what players do in losses. That's why Burrow's far behind in the MVP Chase. And it's why six touchdowns in a loss doesn't help Allen.

Here are the MVP Chase standings after Week 14. There are no more bye weeks and every team has played an equal number of games.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

College Football Chase Final

 

My schedule prevented me from providing the final MVP Chase in the wee hours of the morning before the Selection Committee made their selections for the 12-team playoffs. For the most part, however, I was able to avoid news about the Selection results when I got a chance to finalize my Playoff Chase tabulations in the afternoon after the announcement. Even as I write this part of the newsletter, I don't know all the teams the Committee selected.

The playoff chase was based on four categories: number of wins, strength of wins, strength of losses, and number of points/possessions away from going undefeated. In short, you had to win a lot, beat good teams, avoid losing to bad teams, and avoid getting blown out.

Here are my initial results, ranking all 30 teams with three losses or fewer and accounting for the five conference champions. ("CC" means Conference Champion, "AL" means at-large).

 

The results were… incorrect. Specifically, Army doesn't belong in the playoffs because the Black Knights were uncompetitive in their one loss and had a weak schedule otherwise. Although my formula took blowout losses and strength of schedule into account, Army's 11-1 record would still get them into the playoffs. 

So, my system was wrong. I removed the number of wins into consideration while retaining the other three categories. Here are my adjusted results. After I made the adjustments, I then looked at who the Committee chose. Their ranking is in the last column.

Considering that the committee was compelled to rank or seed the top four conference champions, their selections aren't far off from my results. The only significant difference is that the Committee chose Tennessee over Miami FL. I can't say they were wrong. While my numbers had Miami, there would have been an uproar if the SEC had just two teams in the playoffs while the ACC had three. And one thing I did not factor into my rankings was the strength of the conferences. I may tinker with that next year. 

Every year, the last four or five spots are going to be debated. The Committee this year set a positive precedent in refusing to select any 3-loss team (except conference champ Clemson). Frankly, no such team "deserved" it as all the contenders (especially in the SEC) had bad losses. I predict that in the future, any three-loss team that gets selected (and not a conference champ) will have losses in close games against very good teams; the candidates this year didn't meet that standard.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

NBA MVP Chase Standings Dec 7, 2024

Photo: Public Domain

The philosophy of the MVP Chase is that a league's MVP isn't some combination of great individual stats factored with team success, but that the MVP makes significant contributions to the greatest number of victories.

In basketball, the "value" of a player to a team's victory can be seen in measurables:

• Minutes Played (MP): this indicates how important a coach think the player is to secure the victory

• Plus-Minus (+/-): This indicates how effective the team plays when the player is on the court.  As there are only five players on the court, as opposed to nine or eleven on the field, +/- can suggest how valuable a player was by how efficient the team was while he was on the court.

In the NBA MVP Chase, I looked at players who were shown to be proficient offensively (a Player Efficiency Rating of 20 or more)  and counted the number of games in which:

• The team won

• The player had a +/- of 10 or more

• When the player had a +/- of less than 10, the sum of Minutes Played and +/- was forty or more (for example: 36 MP and a +/- of 6 is 42).

As of the games completed December 5, 2024, here are the Top Ten:

1. Jayson Tatum, Celtics

2. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

4. Franz Wagner, Magic

5. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks

6. Jalen Williams, Thunder

7. Darius Garland, Cavaliers

8. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers

9. Jalen Brunson, Knicks

10. Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers

I'll mention that four Cavaliers are in the Top Ten, but only one in the Top Five, and the official NBA MVP ballot has only five slots.

Team or injury struggles have kept several traditional PER leaders off the list like Jokic, Giannis, Embiid, and Doncic. There is plenty of time for a couple of them to re-emerge. But as it is, Jayson Tatum has shown himself to be the guy who has the most good-to-great games in victories, and the MVP should have no other standard. 

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.