The missing piece in the NBA MVP Chase

Photo: Public Domain

My interest in league MVPs began as the trend of "load management" - the best players taking several games off during the season for rest to be relatively healthy for the playoffs - took hold in the NBA. Russell Westbrook's 2017 MVP season was another motivator; yes, Westbrook had the first triple-double season since 1962. While the statistical achievement was impressive, did it make his team more successful?

I also wanted to stay away from advanced stats that evaluate the overall quality of players - I was looking for players who made huge contributions to help their teams win the most games. If their best games were against weak competition, who cares? As long as their teams won, they should got credit. And if players had great games but lost, well, the game should help them in All-NBA voting, but not the MVP.

Because the most valuable player ought to have the most great games in victories.

One feature I always thought was important to determine a player's contribution to a win was +/-; the difference between how many points the player's team scored minus how many they allowed while he was on the floor. It captures in part how well the team plays because he's on the floor, as opposed to when he's not.

I've used minutes played and/or Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in the past as well in my considerations: minutes played suggest how "valuable" the coach thinks the player is; PER indicates how well he's played in general during the season. Neither, however, were able to indicate the game-by-game effectiveness of the player. I wanted a PER-type stat, but on an individual game basis, not a season basis.

I recently came across "Game Score," which fills that role. The Game Score Formula is:  

(Points)+0.4*(Field Goals Made)+0.7*(Offensive Rebounds)+0.3*(Defensive rebounds)+(Steals)+0.7*(Assists)+0.7*(Blocked Shots)- 0.7*(Field Goal Attempts)-0.4*(Free Throws Missed) – 0.4*(Personal Fouls)-(Turnovers)

The Game Score formula was developed by John Hollinger, who also created PER. I don't know how the numbers were arrived at, but they make sense: add the good things together and subtract the bad things done in a game.

Going through the data, I've settled on what makes a game an MVP-worthy game, that will count as an MVP point:

• Win the game. (This will always be the rule for the MVP Chase throughout all sports.)

• A combined Game Score plus +/- of 30 or more.

The following list is the top ten in MVP Chase points (which is the number of MVP games they've had.)

I didn't have time to update for the weekend, but I wanted to get this out. Players tied in points are listed alphabetically. I sorted the data Stathead.

Through February 28 games:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, 38

2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets 31

3. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, 25

4. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks, 25

5. Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies,22

6. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers, 22

7. Jayson Tatum, Celtics 22

8. Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers 20

9. Jalen Brunson, Knicks, 20

10. Lebron James, Lakers, 20

One thing that's clarified is that Donovan Mitchell is the most valuable of the three Cavaliers players who are having great seasons for the successful team. My previous tallies didn't always reflect that. They also tended to reward Jayson Tatum a little more than was warranted.

I'd like to to a "proof of concept" by using this criterion (Game Points plus +/-) in other years to see how the MVP Chase winner would have been.

Stay tuned!

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! James is available for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

NHL, NBA MVP Chases at the break

 

Photo credit: Santeri Viinamäki

The NHL is holding the Four Nations Tournament instead of an All-Star game this year. The Tournament championship is this Thursday. Regular-season NHL games resume on February 22.

Meanwhile, the NBA resumes after the All-Star break on February 19. So now is a good time to check the MVP Chase for both leagues.

HART TROPHY (NHL MVP)

If your team wins a game or loses in overtime (thus gaining a point in the standings), and your combined points plus +/- in the game equals two or more, you earn an MVP Chase point. Goalies earn an MVP Chase point each time they allow two goals or fewer in a win or OT loss.

Here are the top 15 leaders at the mid-season break. I listed 15 instead of 10 to show where scoring leader Nathan MacKinnon stands. Note: In case of a tie, players are listed alphabetically:

Hart Trophy Chase Leaders

1. Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers 30

2. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Lightning 27

3. Kyle Connor, LW, Jets 26

4. Connor Hellebuyck, G,  Jets 26

5. Mitch Marner, RW, Maple Leafs 26

6. Aliaksei Protas, C, Capitals 26

7. Jack Eichel, C, Golden Knights 25

8. Jesper Bratt, W, Devils 24

9. Kirill Marchenko, RW, Blue Jackets 24

10. Connor McDavid, C, Oilers 24

11. Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning 23

12. Jack Hughes, C, Devils 23

13. Cale Makar, D, Avalanche 23

14. Nathan McKinnon, C, Avalanche 23

15. Sam Reinhart, C, Panthers 23

NBA MVP CHASE

You earn an NBA MVP Chase point if your team wins the game and your +/- was ten or more, or your minutes played plus +/- was 40 or more.

NBA MVP Chase Leaders

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder 38

2. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers 31

3. Jayson Tatum, Celtics 31

4. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks 30

5. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets 29

6. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers 28

7. Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers 27

8. Darius Garland, Cavaliers 27

9. Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies 26

10. Jalen Brunson, Knicks 25

.James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! Contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

Rarely bad, never great

 

In Super Bowl LIX, the Eagles won their second Vince Lombardi Trophy in eight seasons. Before 2017, they hadn't won an NFL Championship since 1961, which pre-dates the Super Bowl era. They defeated the Chiefs, who had won three of the previous five Super Bowls. Before this recent success, their last Super Bowl appearance and win was in the 1969 season, the last before the NFL-AFL merger.

When both teams finally won their first championships in the merged NFL, I was happy for them. To me, they always seemed well-run; when either franchise had a terrible season, it was an aberration. The Chiefs and Eagles were rarely bad but also never great—until recently.

Other teams have been like that. Two that came to mind are the Dolphins and the Vikings. The Dolphins last won the Super Bowl 51 years ago and had not appeared in the game for 40 years. The Vikings are 0-4 in Super Bowls and haven't been in one since the 1976 season. 

Some teams haven't been like the Vikings and Dolphins at all. For instance, the Lions and Cardinals have never won the Super Bowl, but they are frequently awful and historically poorly run (despite the recent success of the Lions). 

The century ( 2000-99) has reached its quarter mark, and I've been wondering if my assumptions were correct.  It's easy to point out that the Patriots have been easily the most successful franchise so far this century, but I was curious about something else: not how successful franchises have been, but how functional (that is, non-dysfunctional) they have been. 

I chose the standard of 5-11(now 5-12) or worse as a "terrible" season. At 6-11, a team is arguably on the wrong side of mediocre but is probably competitive in the majority of games. A 5-11 team is guaranteed to have at least one three-game losing streak during the season while otherwise winning just one out of every three. The more often a team is 5-11 or worse, the greater indication of incompetence and instability that begins at the top.

So I made a list. Teams with the same number are arranged alphabetically. Beside each are some notes that might put things in context. For example, the Bills haven't been terrible since 2010; the Panthers have been regularly terrible only since the current owner took over.

 NFL Teams, Seasons of 5 Wins or Fewer, 2000-2024

Steelers: 0; only two head coaches over the span

Packers: 1; 2005; coach Mike Sherman's last year; non-profit corporation

Seahawks: 2: 2008-09; coach Mike Holmgren's final season and Jim L. Mora's only season

Saints: 2: 2005 (Hurricane Katrina year), 2024

Ravens: 2: no worse than 5-11 (2007 and 2015); owner change in 2004

Eagles: 2: 2012 (AndyReid's last year); 2020 (Pederson's last year)

Colts: 3; none 2000-2010; once each when P. Manning, Andrew Luck missed seasons

Bills: 3: none since 2010; ownership change 2014 

Dolphins: 3: once since 2007 (2019)

Patriots: 3: none during 2001-2022

Vikings: 3: none since  2013; ownership change 2005 

Broncos: 4; 3 in 2017-2022 span; ownership change 2022

Chiefs 4: 2007-09, 2012

Cowboys: 4: once (2015) since 2002

Falcons: 5; twice since 2008

Titans: 5; 2004-05, 2014-15, 2024

Bengals: 6; Twice (2019-2020) since 2010

Giants: 6: 5 recently (2017-24)

49ers: 6: 3x 2004-07, 3x 2015-18

Rams: 6: 4x 2007-11; ownership change 2010; franchise move 2016

Chargers: 7: none 2004-2014; franchise move 2016

Panthers: 7; 2001, 2010, 5x since 2019 (David Tepper bought the team in 2018)

Bears: 8; 3x 2000-04; none 2005-13, 5x 2014-2024

Buccaneers: 8; all in 2004-2018 span

Commanders: 8; spread out 2003-2023; two name changes, ownership change 2023

Texans: 8 (franchise began 2002); 3x 2002-05, 2x 2006-19, 3x 2000-2022

Jets: 9; 7x since 2014

Cardinals: 11; regular occurrence except under coach Bruce Arians (2013-17)

Lions: 11; none since 2022; ownership changes (same family) 2014, 2020

Jaguars 12; 10 times since 2011; ownership change 2012

Raiders: 12: once since 2018; owner change (same family) 2011; move 2020

Browns: 14: including 11 times 4-12 or worse; owner change 2012

Among the eleven least-dysfunctional teams this century, eight won a Super Bowl; the other three, Dolphins, Vikings, and Bills, never reached the Super Bowl. 

It turns out I was wrong about the Chiefs; they did have a bad stretch of three consecutive terrible seasons in the late '00s. Also, I didn't think of the Bills as a functional franchise because they hadn't made the playoffs at all in the century until 2017.

For the century, the Vikings rank twelfth in wins (regular season). The Bills are 15th and the Dolphins 17th. Including playoff wins, both the Vikings (12 winning seasons) and Bills (9 winning seasons) have had five seasons of 12 wins or more. The Dolphins, despite 11 winning seasons, are last in the league with zero seasons of at least 12 wins.

12-Win Seasons (including playoff wins) 2000-25

Patriots 15

Chiefs 10

Ravens 10

Colts 9

Packers: 9

Steelers 9

49ers: 8

Eagles 7

Cowboys 6

Saints: 6

Seahawks: 6

Bills 5

Vikings: 5

Titans 5

Broncos 5

Chargers 5

Panthers 5

Bears: 4

Falcons: 4

Giants: 4

Rams: 4

Bengals 3

Buccaneers: 3

Raiders: 3

Cardinals: 2

Jaguars 2

Lions: 2

Commanders 1

Browns: 1

Jets 1

Texans 1

Dolphins 0

Talk about "rarely bad, never great!" In one sense the Dolphins look like one of the stronger franchises, but in another sense, they've been the saddest team to root for this century.

Finally, I went to Stathead to look at (regular-season) win totals for the past 50 years. The Vikings and Dolphins still rank ahead of the Eagles and Chiefs. 

I suppose the sign of hope for the tortured fans of the Dolphins, Vikings, and Bills is that the Eagles and Chiefs did manage to break through.

And at least they're rarely terrible.

.James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! Contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.