Pre-season predictions check-in

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

NFL MVP Chase standings through Week 9

Daniel Jones had been alone at the top since Week 2. Still on top, but not alone.

Pre-Season Prediction Update

Week 9 was the mid-point of the NFL season. I'm checking in on how the standings compare to my preseason predictions. It's imperfect because some teams have played nine games and others only eight, but now's a good time as any.

NFC EAST: I had the Commanders second (and a playoff team) and the Cowboys third. The Cowboys are second, half a game ahead of the Commanders.

NFC NORTH: I had the Vikings third and the Bears fourth, but they're switched. The Bears have an identical record (5-3) as the second-place Lions. The Vikings are one game behind them. 

NFC SOUTH: I had the Falcons second and the Panthers third. They're switched, with the Panthers two games ahead.

NFC WEST: I had the Seahawks and the Rams second; they have identical records, and the Rams are listed first by the NFL.

NFC PLAYOFFS: I had the Eagles, Packers, Buccaneers, and Seahawks as division champs with the Commanders, Rams, and Lions as wildcards. The Lions and Bears are tied for the seventh spot. If the playoffs began today, the 49ers would be in instead of the Commanders.

AFC EAST: I was correct about the Jets in last place, at least. I had it Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, but it's Patriots, Bills, Dolphins.

AFC NORTH: Correct about the Browns in last place. I had it Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, but it's Steelers, Ravens, Bengals.

AFC SOUTH: Correct about the Jaguars in second and the Titans last. I have the Texans first and the Colts third, but they're switched.

AFC WEST: Correct about the Chargers in second and the Raiders last. I had the Chiefs first and the Broncos third. They're switched.

AFC PLAYOFFS: I had the Bills, Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs as division champs with the Dolphins, Chargers, and Broncos as the Wildcards. Currently in first place, however, are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, and Broncos, with the Bills, Jaguars, and Chargers as wildcards. So only three of my predicted playoff teams —the Bills, Chargers, and Broncos —are on course.

Overall, my most significant misses are the Dolphins and the Commanders. Aside from them, where I've been off, I've not been far off, and teams that are behind right now have time to recover and make the playoffs.

College Football Rankings

Tonight (November 4, 2025), the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release its first Top 25 rankings. As only 12 teams will be selected on December 7, releasing rankings right now is barely as useful as the AP and Coaches polls. It may send a message to some teams that all they need to do is keep winning, and they're in. But this is the month where even the best teams start losing, so there's not much point to it.

Nevertheless, if the playoffs are based on merit (they're not, but if they are), the Committee would release this. Each team’s Playoff Chase Points reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the teams it lost to and the margin of defeat. (In this system, most teams would have a negative number.) Where there is a tie in Playoff Chase Points, teams are ranked by fewer games, then by the lower margin(s) of defeat.

1. Ohio State (8-0) 41 (equal number of points as Indiana with one less game)

2. Indiana (9-0) 41

3. Texas A&M (8-0) 34

4. Brigham Young (8-0) 31

5. Alabama (7-1) 28 

6. Ole Miss (8-1) 28 

7. North Texas (8-1) 28 

8. Georgia (7-1) 26

9. Virginia (8-1) 26

10. Georgia Tech (8-1) 26

11. Louisville (8-1) 25

12. Texas Tech (8-1) 25

13. Oklahoma (7-2) 25

14. Oregon (7-1) 22

15. Memphis (8-1) 22

16. Utah (7-2) 21

17. Michigan (7-2) 21

18. Texas (7-2) 19

19. Notre Dame (6-2) 18

20. USC (6-2) 18

21. Washington (7-2) 18

22. South Florida (7-2) 17

23. James Madison (7-1) 16

24. Navy (7-1) 16

25. Miami, FL (6-2) 16

Eliminated From Playoffs

I started eliminating teams after Week 1, confident they wouldn't be any good (example: North Carolina). All but 20 teams will be eliminated by Conference Championship Weekend.

Air Force, Akron, Arkansas, Arkansas St, Arizona, Army, Appalachian St, Auburn, Ball St, Baylor, Boise State, Boston College, Bowling Green, Buffalo, California, Central Michigan, Charlotte, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, Colorado, Colorado State, Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Mich, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida St, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, Illinois, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Kennesaw St, Kent St, Kentucky, Liberty, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, LSU, Marshall, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan State, Middle Tenn, Minnesota, Mississippi St, Missouri St, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico St, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Oklahoma St, Old Dominion, Ohio, Oregon St, Purdue, Rutgers, Sam Houston, San Jose St, SMU, South Alabama, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCF, UCLA, UTEP, UTSA, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wisconsin

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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

When the government takes away the crutch

 Nobody has the right to the product of anyone else's labor. For example, you don't have the "right" to tap water unless you're paying for it, because the people installing the pipes and treating the water must get paid; nothing is "free" if someone else must work to produce it. However, you do have the right to free water if you are willing to get it yourself by drawing it from a natural body of water. 

At the same time, nobody has the right to restrict your access to the means of life. Suppose laws are made saying that you are not allowed to dig a well, and you're not allowed to go to the river and collect buckets of water. In that case, the tables have turned: the people who prevent you from getting water yourself are now obligated to provide you with the water that is at least as pure as river water or well water.

If the State deprives you of the means to obtain water, the State must provide you with free water or compensate you so you can purchase it yourself. 

Likewise, if the State deprives you of accessing other resources, such as the funds to secure food, shelter, and medical care, then you have the right to compensation. Specifically, when the State obstructs or prohibits peaceful commerce, the people have a right to be compensated for the opportunities denied them.

The State makes life more difficult and expensive in several ways.

• Monetary inflation, which is a means by which a State's central bank finances government debt, leads to price increases for essential goods and services.

• State-mandated licenses and certifications to enter certain lines of work prevent individuals from hiring whom they'd prefer.

• Regulation of wages and prices makes it prohibitively costly for newcomers to enter some industries.

• Tariffs and other taxes raise the price of goods and prevent access to some goods.

For instance, the State bans the sale of raw milk. The seller loses the income from willing buyers and can rightfully demand compensation from the State for those losses. And the buyers, denied food they deem healthy but that the State deems unhealthy, can rightly hold the State responsible for providing them with food and health care.

The State-funded channels of income support are collectively called the Welfare State. The people don't have a "right" to the tax-funded "free" programs of the Welfare State, but they do have a right to compensation when their freedom to participate in commerce is taken away. 

Harry Browne (1933-2006) was a writer, activist, and 2-time Libertarian Party nominee for President. In a 2002 column about how the U.S. "helps" Israel, Browne wrote, "The same routine is used by our government at home – causing problems and then running to the rescue in education, health care, charity, farming, business, and most other areas of society.  Government is good at one thing: It knows how to break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, 'See, if it weren't for the government, you wouldn't be able to walk.'" 

Harry Browne at the 1998 Libertarian Party Convention. PHOTO: Carol Moore

The State breaks your leg when it hinders your ability to engage in commerce. Welfare programs are the crutch that it gives you. It's a vicious cycle that fosters dependence on The State. In the State's eyes, that's its feature: the people are loyal to "the System" because they have no options: "Yes, the State did break my leg, but where else can I get a crutch?"  

What if the State increases its burdens and takes away even more of your freedoms, and then takes away your crutch?

I was thinking of this as SNAP benefits are reduced and delayed during the government "shutdown." Forty-two million Americans use this food assistance program; food banks and other charities will face quite the challenge in picking up the slack.

President Trump's nationalist economic policies have damaged American businesses with tariffs and ICE raids, but food was still on the table. Now the crutch has been taken away. The absence may be brief, but a smaller crutch will take its place.

It almost feels like a non-verbal "social contract" has been violated. American politicians continue to do what they do: run up deficits, create foreign enemies, impose a police state, and little by little just make life worse for us. That may have been tolerable because we always had something to eat. And now that's no longer a certainty.

Perhaps more people will begin to wonder what some of us have been wondering for a long time: What is the point of this federal government? Why do we need this?

Why do we have to live like this?

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James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You can contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.

There is no economy: what your freedom means

 

 

William Graham Sumner (1840-1905), 1902 portrait. (Credit: Public Domain)

Today, October 30, 2025, is the 185th anniversary of William Graham Sumner's birth. The longtime Yale professor taught the first sociology class in North America and was a leading anti-imperialist and proponent of free trade in the late 19th century.

In 1888, he wrote:

"Now free trade is not a theory in any sense of the word. It is only a mode of liberty; one form of the assault (and therefore negative) which the expanding intelligence of the present is making on the trammels which it has inherited from the past. … Free trade is a revolt, a conflict, a reform, a reaction and recuperation of the body politic, just as free conscience, free worship, free speech, free press, and free soil have been. It is in no sense a theory."

Sumner frames the struggle for free trade as part of the struggle for freedom itself. But for some reason, people have come to believe, or have been raised to think, that something that would be perfectly fine if no money changed hands should suddenly be licensed, regulated, taxed, or prohibited if someone purchases it from another. And even more so if the exchange crosses a political border. If the nearest town that can provide me with food and supplies is close by but in another country, politicians in my country will claim that purchasing from there will hurt "the economy."

But there is no "economy" to hurt. 

If I don't buy anything at all from anyone, the "economy" can't be hurt.

Just like if I go to one church instead of another, or don't go at all, "religion" can't be hurt.

Just like if I read gossip but never serious news, or don't read at all, "journalism" can't be hurt

Just like if I only watch true crime shows and never go to the ballet, opera, or museum, "culture" can't be hurt.

We've recognized in the First Amendment to the United States Constitution that the federal government has no business in the worlds of religion and ideas. The federal government, therefore, is not responsible for our churches and media organizations.

We've seen nation-states that have organized religion and persecuted religion. We have witnessed nation-states run newspapers and television stations, censoring and crushing their rivals. 

The benefit of freedom in these matters is self-evident. We don't say, "Freedom of the press sounds nice in theory, but does it work?" We don't say, "Freedom of religion sounds nice in theory, but does it work?"

Freedom is what people seek, struggle for, and fight for when they don't have it or are in danger of losing it. What does it even mean to say, "Does freedom work?" Freedom is a self-evident good. If freedom doesn't work, then "The Good" - goodness itself - doesn't work, which means nothing works.

"Free trade sounds nice in theory, but…" But nothing. Freedom is good.

"Free markets might work in theory, but…" But nothing. Freedom is good.

"But we don't have free markets; we have rigged markets. Therefore, we must…"  make them freer. What won't work is to rig them even further with even more taxes, licenses, regulations, and prohibitions in the hopes of providing more equitable outcomes. Fairness is only found in freedom for all.

The government has no business collecting data on church attendance or how often people read newspapers, because religion and the press aren't its business. Likewise, business isn't the government's business either. There is no "gross domestic product" to count, and no trade deficit to worry about. The unemployment rate? Why should that be a concern? It could be addressed by allowing people to work and earn as they see fit. You know, freedom.

Sumner recognized that the freedom to trade and earn a living is as essential as freedom in the spiritual and intellectual realms. Freedom's not a theory, it's life seeking to express itself. And it's good.

A subscription to JL Cells is just $5 per month or $30 per year (a 50% discount). If you enjoy the content, please consider a paid subscription, support me via PayPal with an amount of your choice, or buy me a coffee. Alternatively, you can contact me if you prefer an alternative method.

James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe). Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You can contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.