Photo credit: Tage Olsin
The MVP Chase philosophy has been about how players made significant contributions to each of their team's wins. I don't care if the NBA player scored 61 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds; did his team win? I don't care if the quarterback had six total touchdowns; did his team win?
In last year's MVP Chase for the American and National Leagues, I settled on a formula for the MVP Chase winners. I created a statistic for Major League Baseball called Bases Gained: Total Bases + Walks + Steals. If a player's Bases Gained is three or greater in a victory, he earns an MVP point. In the absence of extenuating circumstances, the player with the most MVP points at the end of the season should be the league MVP.
Last year, there was no avoiding Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers winning the AL and NL MVP awards, regardless of the criteria one uses, and they each won the MVP Chase handily. However, something began to bother me.
Judge's teammate Juan Soto finished third in the AL MVP Chase. Two of Ohtani's teammates, Teoscar Hernandez and Freddie Freeman, finished in the top ten in the NL Chase. The Yankees and Dodgers were the best and winningest teams in their leagues, so Judge and Ohtani received a good deal of help from teammates to help them win as many games as they did.
But unlike football, basketball, and hockey, baseball isn't a team sport. At least, not in the same way. In the other sports, there is a form of guard play at work - the team working together in flow to counteract the moves of the opponent with close, man-on-man contact. In contrast, baseball is mostly a collection of individual actions, and decision-making is almost always automatic.
In the other sports, the players are supposed to make each other better, especially the ones with great personal stats. The individual stats are supposed to translate to wins, and those who do not win are not contenders in the MVP Chase.
Baseball, however, is about little else other than individual stats. One great hitter can't make the guy behind him in the batting order better, in the same way a great receiver may elevate a quarterback or vice versa.
If the 2024 White Sox, the worst team ever, had a player who put up game-by-game stats identical to Judge's, they would have won more games. But not a lot more, because he wouldn't have had help from the talentless roster. Should that hypothetical player have been an MVP candidate?
I'm wondering if standard for the baseball MVP Chase should be adjusted. Not, "Did his team win the game?" but "Did he play winning baseball?"
From "How many times did he have 3+ Bases Gained in a victory?" to "How many times did he have 3+ bases gained?"
One home run in a game? MVP point. MVP point. A double and a walk? MVP point. Two walks and a stolen base? Three singles? Three walks? MVP point, MVP point, MVP point.
Playing "winning baseball" isn't about carrying the team to victory every time, but it's being productive enough (i.e., 3 Bases Gained) that with the help of a few others, the team should win the game. The reason Judge and Ohtani won the MVP Chase last year is that they most frequently played winning baseball, but they had teammates who almost as often helped achieve the victories.
As the first month of the 2025 games is complete, I've provided a snapshot of how the MVP Chase is shaping up in both leagues. Using Stathead, I took the top ten season Bases Gained leaders in each league and then determined how many MVP points they've earned by counting the number of times in which they had 3+ Bases Gained (BG) in a game. I then provide the number of those games in which the team won, and the number of games the team has won overall. This will illustrate the team's dependence on that player.
COUNTING ALL GAMES PLAYED THROUGH APRIL 30, 2025
American League
Aaron Judge, Yankees 17 3+BG Games; 11/18 wins/team wins
Cal Raleigh, Mariners 16 10/18
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals 15 9/16
Cedric Mullins, Orioles 14 7/12
Alex Bregman, Red Sox 13 8/17
Rafael Devers, Red Sox 12 9/17
Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics 12 8/16
Brent Rooker, Athletics 12 7/16
Jarren Duran, Red Sox 12 6/17
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers 11 7/19
National League
Pete Alonso, Mets 16 3+BG Games 12/21 wins/teams wins
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks 16 11/16
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers 15 14/21
Kyle Tucker, Cubs 15 12/18
Jung Hoo Lee, Giants 14 11/19
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres 14 11/19
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs 14 11/18
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies 13 11/19
James Wood, Nationals 13 8/13
Bryce Harper, Phillies 12 9/17
In bold, you see who would be the MVP Chase leaders based on last year, in which only wins are counted. They're again Judge and Ohtani. Judge also leads if we're counting all 3+BG games, and Ohtani lags behind the NL leaders by a game. However, the Dodgers are an incredible 14-1 when he has a 3+BG game.
I'll keep track of both numbers throughout the season, as well as team wins, to put them all in perspective.
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