Where is Drake Maye?

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

IN THIS ISSUE:

• NFL MVP Chase standings, and where's Drake Maye?

• The season's first NBA MVP Chase standings

• College Football Playoff standings

NFL MVP CHASE

I may need to take a break from the MVP Chase, and so the NFL's MVP Chase standings are a bit premature; the Monday Night game between the Eagles and Packers hasn't been played.

If the Packers win and QB Jordan Love has a productive game, he'll enter the top ten and could climb as high as sixth. If the Eagles win, QB Jalen Hurts can climb as high as ninth. (Neither team has another viable MVP candidate right now.) 

What I find interesting is the MVP talk surrounding QB Drake Maye of the Patriots, who has led them to an 8-2 record and a seven-game winning streak. I have him 28th in the MVP Chase, with 13 quarterbacks ranked ahead of him. Of course, I'm measuring valuable quarterback play differently than most:

• Total up the quarterbacks' first downs and touchdowns, both passing and rushing.

• Subtract the total number of interceptions, sacks, and fumbles.

• If the team wins the game and net first downs/touchdowns is 12 or more, the QB gets an MVP point, which could max out at 1.5 if the net is 22. 

Maye has earned an MVP Chase point in just three of eight wins. I decided to look at more conventional stats to see why there's MVP talk about him.

• Passer Rating: Maye is ranked sixth, and has won more games than the QBs ahead of him (although two of them are 7-2 to his 8-2).

• Passing Yards: Maye ranks third.

• 1st Downs (including Touchdowns): Maye is fifth.

Then:

• In four victories, Maye fumbled at least once.

• In five victories, Maye had three or more sacks.

• Maye hasn't passed for 300 yards in a game this season, preventing him from collecting a massive amount of first downs in any particular game.

The number of "bad" plays often pushes Maye below the net 12 standard. Justin Herbert has a similar number of bad plays, but also has a couple of 300-yard games and more rushing yards,  allowing him to collect more first downs and accumulate more MVP points.

While Maye is playing well and could very well climb up the rankings over the remaining seven games, it's not as his second year resembles 1984 Dan Marino or 2018 Patrick Mahomes.

NBA MVP CHASE

Number of games won in which the player's Game Score plus +/- equalled 30 or more. For games played through November 8, 2025:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 25

Based on the merits; this is not an evaluation of the most talented teams. Each team’s Playoff Chase Points reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the teams it lost to and the margin of defeat. (In this system, most teams would have a negative number.) Where there is a tie in Playoff Chase Points, teams are ranked by fewer games, then by the lower margin(s) of defeat.

1. Ohio State (9-0) 46

2. Indiana (10-0) 46

3. Texas A&M (9-0) 41

4. Alabama (8-1) 34

5. Georgia (8-1) 33

6. Texas Tech (9-1) 33

7. Oregon (8-1) 31

8. Ole Miss (9-1) 30

9. North Texas (8-1) 30

10. Georgia Tech (8-1) 29

11. Brigham Young (8-1) 29

12. Oklahoma (7-2) 27

13. Virginia (8-2) 27

14. Notre Dame (7-2) 26

15. USC (7-2) 26

16. Michigan (7-2) 23

17. James Madison (9-1) 22

18. Vanderbilt (8-2) 22

19. Houston (8-2) 22

20. Memphis (8-2) 22

21. Louisville (7-2) 21

22. Texas (7-2) 21

23. South Florida (7-2) 21

24. Miami FL (7-2) 20

25. Utah (7-2) 20

The following are teams I have not yet eliminated from the playoffs. I have previously eliminated 16 teams with three losses or fewer, based on suffering blowout losses or losing hope for a conference title, their only path to making the playoffs.

Cincinnati (7-2)

Navy (7-2)

Pitt (7-2)

San Diego St (7-2)

Southern Miss (7-2)

UNLV (7-2)

Arizona State (6-3)

Connecticut (7-3)

Fresno State (6-3)

Hawaii (6-3)

Iowa (6-3)

Jacksonville St (6-3)

TCU (6-3)

Tennessee (6-3)

Troy (6-3)

Washington (6-3)

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.

Pre-season predictions check-in

 

Image: Torsten Bolten

NFL MVP Chase standings through Week 9

Daniel Jones had been alone at the top since Week 2. Still on top, but not alone.

Pre-Season Prediction Update

Week 9 was the mid-point of the NFL season. I'm checking in on how the standings compare to my preseason predictions. It's imperfect because some teams have played nine games and others only eight, but now's a good time as any.

NFC EAST: I had the Commanders second (and a playoff team) and the Cowboys third. The Cowboys are second, half a game ahead of the Commanders.

NFC NORTH: I had the Vikings third and the Bears fourth, but they're switched. The Bears have an identical record (5-3) as the second-place Lions. The Vikings are one game behind them. 

NFC SOUTH: I had the Falcons second and the Panthers third. They're switched, with the Panthers two games ahead.

NFC WEST: I had the Seahawks and the Rams second; they have identical records, and the Rams are listed first by the NFL.

NFC PLAYOFFS: I had the Eagles, Packers, Buccaneers, and Seahawks as division champs with the Commanders, Rams, and Lions as wildcards. The Lions and Bears are tied for the seventh spot. If the playoffs began today, the 49ers would be in instead of the Commanders.

AFC EAST: I was correct about the Jets in last place, at least. I had it Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, but it's Patriots, Bills, Dolphins.

AFC NORTH: Correct about the Browns in last place. I had it Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, but it's Steelers, Ravens, Bengals.

AFC SOUTH: Correct about the Jaguars in second and the Titans last. I have the Texans first and the Colts third, but they're switched.

AFC WEST: Correct about the Chargers in second and the Raiders last. I had the Chiefs first and the Broncos third. They're switched.

AFC PLAYOFFS: I had the Bills, Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs as division champs with the Dolphins, Chargers, and Broncos as the Wildcards. Currently in first place, however, are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, and Broncos, with the Bills, Jaguars, and Chargers as wildcards. So only three of my predicted playoff teams —the Bills, Chargers, and Broncos —are on course.

Overall, my most significant misses are the Dolphins and the Commanders. Aside from them, where I've been off, I've not been far off, and teams that are behind right now have time to recover and make the playoffs.

College Football Rankings

Tonight (November 4, 2025), the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release its first Top 25 rankings. As only 12 teams will be selected on December 7, releasing rankings right now is barely as useful as the AP and Coaches polls. It may send a message to some teams that all they need to do is keep winning, and they're in. But this is the month where even the best teams start losing, so there's not much point to it.

Nevertheless, if the playoffs are based on merit (they're not, but if they are), the Committee would release this. Each team’s Playoff Chase Points reflect the number of wins by opponents the team has beaten, with a deduction depending on the number of losses by the teams it lost to and the margin of defeat. (In this system, most teams would have a negative number.) Where there is a tie in Playoff Chase Points, teams are ranked by fewer games, then by the lower margin(s) of defeat.

1. Ohio State (8-0) 41 (equal number of points as Indiana with one less game)

2. Indiana (9-0) 41

3. Texas A&M (8-0) 34

4. Brigham Young (8-0) 31

5. Alabama (7-1) 28 

6. Ole Miss (8-1) 28 

7. North Texas (8-1) 28 

8. Georgia (7-1) 26

9. Virginia (8-1) 26

10. Georgia Tech (8-1) 26

11. Louisville (8-1) 25

12. Texas Tech (8-1) 25

13. Oklahoma (7-2) 25

14. Oregon (7-1) 22

15. Memphis (8-1) 22

16. Utah (7-2) 21

17. Michigan (7-2) 21

18. Texas (7-2) 19

19. Notre Dame (6-2) 18

20. USC (6-2) 18

21. Washington (7-2) 18

22. South Florida (7-2) 17

23. James Madison (7-1) 16

24. Navy (7-1) 16

25. Miami, FL (6-2) 16

Eliminated From Playoffs

I started eliminating teams after Week 1, confident they wouldn't be any good (example: North Carolina). All but 20 teams will be eliminated by Conference Championship Weekend.

Air Force, Akron, Arkansas, Arkansas St, Arizona, Army, Appalachian St, Auburn, Ball St, Baylor, Boise State, Boston College, Bowling Green, Buffalo, California, Central Michigan, Charlotte, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, Colorado, Colorado State, Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Mich, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida St, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, Illinois, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Kennesaw St, Kent St, Kentucky, Liberty, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, LSU, Marshall, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan State, Middle Tenn, Minnesota, Mississippi St, Missouri St, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico St, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Oklahoma St, Old Dominion, Ohio, Oregon St, Purdue, Rutgers, Sam Houston, San Jose St, SMU, South Alabama, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCF, UCLA, UTEP, UTSA, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wisconsin

Subscription prices to The MVP Chase are just $5 per month or $30/year (50% off). If you enjoy the content, consider a paid subscription or contact me to discuss a lower rate or one-time payment option. The more support I have, the more content I’ll be able to produce.

Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.